• Temper expectations for those who have been away from the game: Both Calvin Ridley and Odell Beckham Jr. are being drafted as their team’s top receivers but come with risk and red flags.
• DeAndre Hopkins in Tennessee likely isn’t a positive for his fantasy value: The Titans added the 31-year-old receiver, who is currently going as WR21, to their run-heavy offense.
• Pass on Deebo Samuel at his cost: There is a better value among the 49ers receivers to take a shot on later in drafts.
Estimated Reading Time: 8 minutes
July officially kicks off fantasy football draft season, so that means there are some early trends in average draft position to take advantage of, whether it involves fading or targeting a player at their current ADP.
Using ESPN’s live draft trends, this list identifies five wide receivers who are currently getting drafted well above where I have them ranked and makes a case for reasons to fade each player at their current ADP.
Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville Jaguars
- ESPN ADP: 64.9
- ESPN Position ADP: WR26
- My Rank: WR32
There are easy arguments to be made for or against Ridley at his current ADP, but after his year and a half away from football and going into a new offense, the reasons for skepticism weigh more heavily into my current ranking of WR32. When we last saw Ridley, in a five-game sample size in 2021, he was clearly the No. 1 wide receiver with the Falcons, leading the team in targets on a weekly basis, which resulted in him ranking among the top five wide receivers in total targets during weeks where he was active.
However, Ridley didn’t perform like a top-five, or even a top-10, fantasy wide receiver in 2021, never finishing higher than WR17 that season and placing outside the top 24 every other week. Before anyone is quick to blame Matt Ryan, Ryan delivered an above-average 76% catchable-target rate in Ridley’s direction that season — three of which ended up as drops.
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