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Fantasy Football: What should we make of Aaron Rodgers' last dance?

Nov 29, 2020; Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) catches a football during warmups prior to the game against the Chicago Bears at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

We’re in the thick of the NFL offseason and it’s officially time to start fantasy football prep. I’ll be answering the biggest questions heading into the 2021 season. Click here to read the series of questions answered so far.

Reigning league MVP Aaron Rodgers has reported to training camp after an offseason filled with rumors and speculation. Dueling “Last Dance” Instagram stories from Rodgers and No. 1 WR Davante Adams make it seem likely that 2021 might be the last time we see A-aron wearing green, but at least all signs finally point to Rodgers being under center for the Green Bay Packers come Week 1.

Editor's Note: PFF's 2021 Fantasy Football Draft Guide and 2021 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheets are LIVE!

Now that there’s some semblance of certainty to this situation: Let’s break down whether or not Rodgers can stay balling and again finish as an elite fantasy football asset in 2021.

Rodgers was the best version of himself in 2021

The team-wide passing-game results of the 2020 Packers were nothing short of wild. We have to go all the way back to the 2013 Denver Broncos (+0.342 EPA per pass play) to find a comparable regular-season passing offense to the 2020 Packers (+0.369). Before them? Only Rodgers himself and the 2011 Packers (+0.369) were more efficient. Oh, also Rodgers and the 2014 Packers (+0.325) are responsible for the fourth-highest mark over the past 10 years. Three of the league's four most efficient passing games since 2011 have been engineered by Rodgers. Madness.

Leaders in EXPECTED POINTS ADDED (EPA) per pass play since 2011 (regular season only)
Rank Team Season EPA per pass play
1 Green Bay Packers 2011 0.369
2 Green Bay Packers 2020 0.362
3 Denver Broncos 2013 0.342
4 Green Bay Packers 2014 0.325
5 Kansas City Chiefs 2018 0.323

In 2020, Rodgers set career-best marks in PFF passing grade (94.3), QB rating (115.8) and adjusted completion rate (79.3%). There’s an argument to be made that the 2011 version of Rodgers was better, although the discrepancy in offensive weapons available makes that a rather moot point.

Rodgers routinely dissected defenses of all shapes and sizes throughout 2021 — and he did so in style.

Here’s the catch: 2020 wasn’t exactly the culmination of extended late-career dominance from Rodgers. In reality, the performance was a bit of an outlier compared to what occurred over the past half decade.


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