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Fantasy Football: Week 4 expected fantasy points report

Welcome back to the expected fantasy football points report! As always, we are leveraging PFF’s expected fantasy points model based on a player’s usage to determine if his performance is real, a mirage or due for a bounce back.

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In case you missed the primer at the beginning of the year, give it a read here to find out more about the process.


Player Team FPPG xFPPG +/- Games
Josh Allen BUF 33.6 30.1 3.5 3
Joe Burrow CIN 21.4 27.8 -6.4 3
Cam Newton NE 24.5 25.3 -0.8 3
Dak Prescott DAL 30.3 24.5 5.8 3
Patrick Mahomes KC 28.6 23.4 5.2 3
Aaron Rodgers GB 24.7 22.8 1.9 3
Carson Wentz PHI 18.3 22.1 -3.8 3
Justin Herbert LAC 20.4 21.4 -0.9 2
Lamar Jackson BLT 20.4 21.1 -0.7 3
Matt Ryan ATL 21.9 20.8 1.2 3

I will stop talking about Josh Allen when he stops crushing it. He’s now been the top quarterback in xFP for two of the three weeks so far. However, his schedule has been pretty cake so far, and is about to get tougher going forward, including the Raiders in Vegas allowing a touchdown rate of just 3% through the first three weeks. Ian Hartitz invited me on the PFF Fantasy Football Podcast before the season and we both agreed he was a sell-high candidate after an easy first month.

Patrick Mahomes demonstrated his prowess against the best of the best on MNF in Week 3, passing for 384 yards and four touchdowns. His efficiency is up there with Russell Wilson, so while his xFP numbers haven’t been otherworldly, he will continue to crush in the +/- category because he is a transcendent talent.

A surprise name on the graph this week is Justin Herbert. His first two games in the NFL have been really solid considering many expected him to sit most of his first season. His YPA is sitting at 7.8, which is tied for 12th among quarterbacks with at least 25 dropbacks. He’s had just two passing touchdowns so far — one in each game — but with six red zone trips and and rushing touchdown in hand, he should see some regression there soon.

Running backs

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