The Fantasy Football Utilization Report: Week 12 waiver, trade and drop candidates | Fantasy Football News, Rankings and Projections | PFF

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The Fantasy Football Utilization Report: Week 12 waiver, trade and drop candidates

Volume is king in fantasy football, and this report will help you understand which players are due more or less according to their roles. It is a great way to know who is overperforming (sell high) and underperforming (buy low) based on historical data tied to metrics we know drive volume.

  • Overall offense: Which teams are enabling winning volume and efficiency across game scripts
  • Quarterbacks: How involved is each quarterback in the running game and who is unlocking upside for their weapons
  • Running backs: Which backs are handling early downs, short-yardage and passing downs
  • Tight ends: Who is running enough routes and meeting critical targets per route thresholds
  • Receivers: Which receivers are in the most routes and operating broadly within the offense
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WEEK 11 TAKEAWAYS

Waiver Wire

QB – Cam Newton (re-issue) took over as the starter in Week 11 and handled 36% of the designed rushing attempts. He is a low-end QB1 the rest of the way with upside. If you are streaming at quarterback, Newton is a priority add. If a league mate is streaming and needs Newton, get defensive. FAB: 25-50%

RB – Devonta Freeman has played 58% of the Ravens' snaps in three consecutive games and retained 50% of the rushing work after the return of Latavius Murray. FAB: 10-20%

RB – Ty Johnson will handle 30-40% of rushing duties and most of the passing-down work while Michael Carter recovers from a high-ankle sprain. FAB: 10-20%

WR – Darnell Mooney has 21% and 45% of the teams' targets in the last two games (Allen Robinson II missed Week 11). He has led the team for most of the season but has been on and off the injury report. Now healthy, his big-play ability is showing. FAB: 10-20%

WR – Will Fuller V could return in the next two games and the second receiver spot is currently a rotation for the Dolphins. Fuller should find a full-time role once on the field in a heavy passing offense. FAB: 2-5%

Sell High

N/A

Buy Low

RB – David Montgomery has been handling an every-down role over the past two games, and better performances are on the way. He has finished as RB33 and 25. Buy now.

Upgrades

QB – Kirk Cousins has three top-10 performances in as many games, and the Vikings are throwing the ball thanks to close scripts and a leaky defense. Cousins is a low-end QB1 the rest of the way.

WR – Elijah Moore ran a route on 81% of the Jets dropbacks — a season-high. Playing time has been Moore's only limiting factor. He is a high-end WR3 with upside.

WR – Brandon Aiyuk has eclipsed the 90% route threshold in three straight games and has two top-10 finishes. He is a high-end WR3.

TE – Dawson Knox was in a route on 95% of the Bills pass plays and led the team in targets (26%) in his second game back from a hand injury. He has five top-12 finishes in seven healthy games and is a low-end TE1 the rest of the way.

Downgrades

QB – Derek Carr hasn't eclipsed 300 yards passing in the last three games, and the Raiders' passing options are limited. He is a mid-range QB2 moving forward.

QB – Russell Wilson hasn't looked the same since returning from his finger injury, but this offense's woes trace back to mid-2020. He is officially a QB2.

RB – Zack Moss is in a three-way committee with Matt Brieda's increase in playing time. He moves down into RB4 territory.

Data notes and acronyms:

1st/2nd = First and second downs
LDD = long down and distance (third and fourth down with three or more yards to go)
SDD = short down and distance (second, third and fourth down with two or fewer yards to go)
i5 = inside the five-yard line
2MIN = two-minute offense (hurry-up offense)
Close = score within three points
Lead = leading by four points or more
Trail = trailing by four points or more
Plays = penalties included for utilization splits and rates
Pass Play = all dropbacks (i.e., attempts, sacks and scrambles)
ADOT = average depth of target
Air Yards = ADOT multiplied by targets
TTT = average time to throw
PA = play action
PA Targets = percentage of player's targets that came using play action
Fantasy finishes = through Sunday night game
YPRR = yards per route run
TPRR = targets per route run
EZ = end zone
TOP = Time of possession

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JUMP TO A TEAM:

ARZ | ATL | BLT | BUF | CAR | CIN | CHI | CLE | DEN | DAL | DET | GB | HOU | IND | JAX | KC | LVR | LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN | NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF | SEA | TB | TEN | WFT

ARIZONA CARDINALS

Team Ranks
Pace & TOP Pass vs Run Splits Pass by Game Script Run by Game Script
Plays per Game Plays per Minute Time of Possession Pass Rank Run Rank Trail Pass Close Pass Lead Pass Trail Run Close Run Lead Run
11 24 3 29 4 27 15 13 6 18 20

Pass-volume environment: Poor
Run-volume environment: Good
Pass/run tendencies: Balanced

The Cardinals lead by four or more points on a league-high 54% of their plays. They don't run the ball more than the NFL average in close or leading game scripts, but the sheer number of leading plays is a significant factor in them running the ball on 43% of snaps (fourth-most).

Quarterbacks
Player Week ADOT Adjusted Comp % TTT YPA Play Action Designed Rush Att Scrambles Sacks i5 Att PPR Rank
Colt McCoy 9 3.5 92% 2.36 9.6 41% 16% 3% 7% 0% 14
10 8.8 65% 2.06 5.4 35% 5% 0% 9% 0% 33
11 4.9 90% 2.38 7.5 32% 15% 2% 4% 0% 9
YTD 5.4 85% 2.30 7.6 35% 6% 2% 6% 0% 39

Kyler Murray missed his third consecutive game due to an ankle injury. The Cardinals have a bye in Week 12, giving the third-year quarterback extra time to heal before the next contest.

Rest of season:

  • Murray: top-five QB
Running backs
Player Week Snaps Rush Att Routes Targets TPRR SDD Snaps i5 Att LDD Snaps 2MIN Snaps PPR Rank
James Conner 9 77% 55% 66% 19% 25% 75% 100% 90% 0% 1
10 84% 53% 56% 13% 22% 83% 0% 91% 0% 19
11 82% 64% 64% 14% 20% 100% 100% 87% 100% 7
YTD 53% 45% 35% 6% 14% 70% 65% 38% 27% 8
Eno Benjamin 9 24% 24% 19% 0% 0% 25% 0% 10% 0% 34
10 27% 32% 19% 3% 14% 33% 0% 18% 0% 57
11 22% 18% 20% 2% 10% 0% 0% 13% 0% 48
YTD 7% 7% 5% 1% 9% 9% 0% 4% 0% 95

Monitoring: Chase Edmonds is eligible to return after one more game (Week 14), and it will be interesting to see how this backfield divides. Conner has handled an every-down role in Edmonds' absence, posting RB1, RB19 and RB7 performances.

Rest of season:

  • Edmonds: low-end RB2 upon return
  • Conner: low-end RB1 while Edmonds is out; low-end RB2 after
  • Benjamin: stash RB5 while Edmonds is out
Receivers and tight ends
Player Pos Week Routes TPRR Targets ADOT Air Yards EZ Tgts 3rd/4th Down Targets PA Targets PPR Rank
A.J. Green WR 9 0% 0% 0% 0.0 0% 0% 0% 0% 0
10 78% 19% 17% 10.0 23% 50% 14% 0% 98
11 66% 20% 14% 16.3 47% 33% 33% 50% 29
YTD 79% 17% 16% 12.8 27% 28% 17% 35% 39
Christian Kirk WR 9 97% 21% 23% 9.0 45% 0% 0% 33% 16
10 92% 25% 30% 5.0 21% 0% 43% 22% 30
11 84% 10% 10% 8.0 15% 33% 8% 50% 67
YTD 78% 19% 18% 11.4 27% 24% 16% 31% 21
Antoine Wesley WR 9 75% 13% 12% 15.3 38% 0% 0% 100% 37
10 83% 4% 3% 10.0 5% 0% 0% 100% 129
11 72% 12% 10% 6.5 13% 0% 0% 25% 41
YTD 27% 10% 3% 11.6 5% 0% 1% 64% 134
Rondale Moore WR 9 88% 19% 19% -1.0 -4% 0% 33% 40% 48
10 36% 33% 13% 9.5 18% 0% 14% 25% 78
11 48% 48% 26% -1.0 -5% 0% 25% 36% 19
YTD 51% 26% 16% 1.4 3% 4% 17% 31% 42
Zach Ertz TE 9 84% 19% 19% 0.8 3% 0% 33% 40% 29
10 83% 21% 20% 10.2 29% 50% 29% 33% 13
11 82% 24% 21% 6.2 27% 33% 17% 33% 1
YTD 34% 20% 8% 6.4 7% 8% 18% 39% 5

Monitoring: Ertz operated from the slot (68% of snaps) in Week 11, helping him get over the 80% route rate threshold for a third consecutive game. Once DeAndre Hopkins returns, expect Kirk and Moore to operate outside less often. Hopkins will likely handle nearly 100% of routes, unlike Antonie Wesley, who leaves the field 20-30% of pass plays.

Rest of season:

  • Hopkins: high-end WR2
  • Kirk: boom-bust WR3
  • Green: low-end WR3
  • Moore: stash WR5
  • Ertz: low-end TE1; could shift back to high-end TE2 when Hopkins returns

ATLANTA FALCONS

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