Fantasy Football: Top smash plays, upgrades and fades for Week 10 | Fantasy Football News, Rankings and Projections | PFF

Fantasy News & Analysis

Premium Content Sign Up

Fantasy Football: Top smash plays, upgrades and fades for Week 10

Green Bay Packers Chandon Sullivan (39) attempts to tackle Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris (22) in the fourth quarter at Lambeau Field, Sunday, Oct. 3, 2021, in Green Bay, Wis. Samantha Madar/USA TODAY NETWORK-Wisconsin Gpg Packersvsteelers 100321 0012

Week 10 of the NFL season is here, and so is the weekly look at the top smash, upgrade and fade plays for fantasy football. I'll integrate NFL totals, spreads, implied points and proprietary PFF matchup data each week, looking for players who score highly or poorly across all metrics.

Click here for more PFF tools:

Rankings & Projections | WR/CB Matchup Chart | NFL & NCAA Betting Dashboards | NFL Player Props tool | NFL & NCAA Power Rankings


We will also look at the projected DFS rostership for additional context for building tournament lineups.

KEY:

  • SOS: PFF's Fantasy Strength of Schedule (SoS) metric provides a league-wide, season-long view of opponent matchups for each fantasy position.
  • OL Pass Block Advantage (OL PBA): offensive-line pass blocking matchup; derived from the OL/DL Matchup tool (pass blocking advantage — the higher the percentage, the better the matchup for the offensive line, and vice versa).
  • OL Run Block Advantage (OL RBA): offensive-line pass blocking matchup; derived from the OL/DL Matchup tool (run blocking advantage — the higher the percentage, the better the matchup for the offensive line, and vice versa).
  • WR/CB Matchup Advantage (WR/CB MU): wide receiver versus cornerback matchup; derived from the WR/CB Matchup tool (matchup advantage grade — the higher the grade, the better the matchup for the receiver, and vice versa).
  • TE Matchup Advantage (TE MU): tight end versus linebackers and safeties; derived from the TE Matchup tool (matchup advantage — the higher the percentage, the better the matchup for the tight end, and vice versa).
  • Projected PPR Points (PPR Proj)

QUARTERBACKS

For quarterbacks, we are looking for big point totals and implied points. The spread doesn't matter as much for pass-heavy teams, but we are looking for trailing scripts that could cause run-heavy offenses to throw more than usual.

Smashes

We have a slate without a quarterback meeting enough criteria to grade out as a smash candidate for the second time this season. We do have a few upgrade options, though.

Upgrades
Player Opponent Total Spread Implied Points QB SOS OL PBA PPR
Josh Allen @NYJ 47.5 -13.0 30.25 7.7 1 23.6
Tom Brady @WAS 51.5 -9.5 30.50 6.3 -6 22.2
Dak Prescott ATL 54.5 -9.0 31.75 5.4 30 22.5

Allen and the Bills are heavily favored against the Jets — not always an excellent recipe for quarterbacks, but the Bills aren't like most teams. They throw the ball more than the NFL in every situation, including leading game scripts.

Brady missed smash status due to a negative OL PBA grade. However, he gets rid of the ball the second-quickest (2.39 average time to throw) of all NFL passers with at least 150 dropbacks. He could be down weapons this week with Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski all questionable.

Oct 24, 2021; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) throws the ball against the Chicago Bears during the first half at Raymond James Stadium. Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Prescott had an off day against the Broncos, completing less than 50% of his passes and tying his season-low PFF passing grade (64.9). On a positive note, he was a few completions to CeeDee Lamb away from a huge day, and Michael Gallup will return in Week 10.

Fades

Subscribe to PFF Edge to continue reading

Already have a subscription? Sign In

Tackle Lifes financial Challenges. Western Southern Financial Group.
Sponsor

Fantasy Featured Tools

  • Sort projected player stats and fantasy points by position, week, and category.

    Available with

    Edge
  • Available with

    Edge
  • PFF's Fantasy Football Expected Points tool is primarily used for identifying potential over and undervalued players.

    Available with

    Elite
  • Research past fantasy performance with sortable player stats including PFF-exclusives like aDOT and fantasy points per opportunity.

    Available with

    Edge
  • PFF’s Fantasy Strength of Schedule (SoS) metric provides a league-wide, season-long view of opponent matchups for each fantasy position.

    Available with

    Edge
Pro Subscriptions

Unlock NFL Player Grades, Fantasy & NFL Draft

$9.99 / mo
$39.99 / yr

Unlock Premium Stats, PFF Greenline & DFS

$34.99 / mo
$199.99 / yr