Week 10 of the NFL season is here, and so is the weekly look at the top smash, upgrade and fade plays for fantasy football. I'll integrate NFL totals, spreads, implied points and proprietary PFF matchup data each week, looking for players who score highly or poorly across all metrics.
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We will also look at the projected DFS rostership for additional context for building tournament lineups.
KEY:
- SOS: PFF's Fantasy Strength of Schedule (SoS) metric provides a league-wide, season-long view of opponent matchups for each fantasy position.
- OL Pass Block Advantage (OL PBA): offensive-line pass blocking matchup; derived from the OL/DL Matchup tool (pass blocking advantage — the higher the percentage, the better the matchup for the offensive line, and vice versa).
- OL Run Block Advantage (OL RBA): offensive-line pass blocking matchup; derived from the OL/DL Matchup tool (run blocking advantage — the higher the percentage, the better the matchup for the offensive line, and vice versa).
- WR/CB Matchup Advantage (WR/CB MU): wide receiver versus cornerback matchup; derived from the WR/CB Matchup tool (matchup advantage grade — the higher the grade, the better the matchup for the receiver, and vice versa).
- TE Matchup Advantage (TE MU): tight end versus linebackers and safeties; derived from the TE Matchup tool (matchup advantage — the higher the percentage, the better the matchup for the tight end, and vice versa).
- Projected PPR Points (PPR Proj)
QUARTERBACKS
For quarterbacks, we are looking for big point totals and implied points. The spread doesn't matter as much for pass-heavy teams, but we are looking for trailing scripts that could cause run-heavy offenses to throw more than usual.
Smashes
We have a slate without a quarterback meeting enough criteria to grade out as a smash candidate for the second time this season. We do have a few upgrade options, though.
Upgrades
| Player | Opponent | Total | Spread | Implied Points | QB SOS | OL PBA | PPR |
| Josh Allen | @NYJ | 47.5 | -13.0 | 30.25 | 7.7 | 1 | 23.6 |
| Tom Brady | @WAS | 51.5 | -9.5 | 30.50 | 6.3 | -6 | 22.2 |
| Dak Prescott | ATL | 54.5 | -9.0 | 31.75 | 5.4 | 30 | 22.5 |
Allen and the Bills are heavily favored against the Jets — not always an excellent recipe for quarterbacks, but the Bills aren't like most teams. They throw the ball more than the NFL in every situation, including leading game scripts.
- Scoring Environment: seventh-best game total and the No. 3 implied points
- Matchups: second-ranked QB SOS but low OL PBA
Brady missed smash status due to a negative OL PBA grade. However, he gets rid of the ball the second-quickest (2.39 average time to throw) of all NFL passers with at least 150 dropbacks. He could be down weapons this week with Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski all questionable.
- Scoring Environment: the fourth-highest game total and second-most implied points
- Matchups: No. 3 QB SOS but a negative OL PBA
Prescott had an off day against the Broncos, completing less than 50% of his passes and tying his season-low PFF passing grade (64.9). On a positive note, he was a few completions to CeeDee Lamb away from a huge day, and Michael Gallup will return in Week 10.
- Scoring Environment: the No. 1 game total and implied points
- Matchups: fifth-highest QB SOS and the No. 2 OL PBA
Fades
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