Fantasy Football: Time to panic or Week 14 antic?

• Houston Texans rookie C.J. Stroud plays the worst game of his short career: Before leaving Week 14 with a concussion, Stroud struggled against the New York Jets, posting just 91 passing yards down his top two receiving options.

• Buffalo Bills WR Stefon Diggs posts his third game with seven or fewer fantasy points (full-PPR) over their last four outings: Diggs’ drop in fantasy production coincides with a concerning shift in usage that could have fantasy managers on notice through the playoffs.

• Detroit Lions rookie Sam LaPorta posted his second finish as a TE3 or worse in Week 14: LaPorta seems to be showing a bit of a pattern when it comes to identifying his potential down weeks.

 Estimated reading time: 6 minutes

Week 14 is officially in the books, and hopefully, we’ve provided you with enough resources and stellar advice that you’ll be advancing to your fantasy football playoffs. The advice doesn’t stop just yet, however! Here are five stats highlighting various fantasy disappointments from Week 14 and a temperature check; is it time to panic, or just a Week 14 antic?

Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud plays the worst game of his career without Tank Dell, Nico Collins

Given the Houston Texans were on the road against one of the league’s top secondaries, expectations for rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud were low. They may not have been low enough, however, based on his performance against the New York Jets in Week 14. Stroud completed just 43.5% of pass attempts on the week for 91 total yards, zero touchdowns and interceptions, resulting in a 43.2 PFF passing grade that amounted to just 3.64 fantasy points on the day. 

Stroud ended up leaving the game early after suffering a concussion, but even prior, things weren’t pretty. Not only was he without rookie wide receiver Tank Dell, who will miss the rest of the year with a leg injury, but he also went without veteran Nico Collins for much of the game, who exited Week 14 after just three snaps after suffering a calf injury. 

Though there’s plenty up in the air for Stroud right now, including his health and the health of his top receiver Nico Collins, but generally speaking, fantasy managers shouldn’t be shy about returning him to their lineups when healthy. Not only did injuries play a part in Stroud’s down week, but there were also the variables of him being on the road while going up against top cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed in a torrential downpour. 

Temperature check: Week 14 antic

Indianapolis Colts RB Zack Moss has another inefficient outing

Indianapolis Colts running back Zack Moss looked to be in a prime position to be a fantasy football league winner in 2023 amidst Jonathan Taylor‘s absence. However, Moss has failed to live up to those big expectations, as he failed to exceed 10 fantasy points in either of the past two weeks. In Week 14 specifically, Moss’ 46.2% stuff rate led all running backs with five or more carries on the week. He also averaged just 2.1 yards per carry, 0.9 yards after contact per attempt and an 8% missed forced tackle rate – all of which ranked among the bottom of the league’s rushers. 

It remains to be seen when Taylor will return to the lineup, but the Colts have a couple of favorable matchups on the schedule through the remainder of the season, including against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 15 and the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 17. While Moss’ inefficiency is setting off alarm bells, it’s difficult to beat a running back with the potential to see 15-plus touches in any given week. Despite his struggles, Moss has seen just under 92% of the team’s running back rush attempts in Taylor’s absence over the past two weeks, providing fantasy managers some reason to give him another chance in their lineups moving forward.

Temperature check: Week 14 antic

Jacksonville Jaguars WR Calvin Ridley posts just 53 receiving yards on a season-high 13 targets

Jacksonville Jaguars WR Calvin Ridley has had his ups and downs throughout the 2023 season but has come on as of late, and it seemed likely that an injury to teammate Christian Kirk could be the key to funneling him enough volume to limit those downs moving forward. Unfortunately, in his first game without Kirk, that wasn’t the case, as he totaled just four catches for 53 receiving yards on a season-high 13 targets in Week 14 against the Cleveland Browns. 

The Jaguars will have another challenging matchup in Week 15 against the Baltimore Ravens, which could force another down week, before closing out the fantasy football season with games against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers, which could be the spot for the bounceback. Ridley’s down week in a challenging matchup that was allowing the second-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts heading into the week shouldn’t be held against him given the potential for significant volume and a couple of more favorable matchups to close out the season. 

Temperature check: Week 14 antic

Buffalo Bills WR Stefon Diggs posts his third game with seven or fewer fantasy points over the past four weeks

Buffalo Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs started out the 2023 NFL season with 100-plus receiving yards in five of his first six games. However, that production has dipped significantly in the weeks since, cultivating in his third performance of seven or fewer fantasy points (full-PPR) over their last four outings in Week 14. Here’s a look at the splits for Diggs to start the season as compared to the last five games:

Looking at Diggs’ splits between Weeks 1-8 and Weeks 9-14, there are two big takeaways. First is that Diggs’ overall usage has declined, being targeted on a lower percentage of his routes run in recent weeks as compared to earlier in the season, averaging nearly three fewer targets per game. The second takeaway comes from the way he’s being utilized, having a lower average depth of target and overall deep target rate as of late that could limit his upside. Given that Diggs’ shift in usage coincides with the emergence of rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid and an uptick in usage of running back James Cook as a receiver, it might be time to panic heading into the fantasy football playoffs.

Temperature check: Time to panic

Detroit Lions rookie TE Sam LaPorta has a down day against the Chicago Bears

It was a down week for Detroit Lions rookie tight end Sam LaPorta, who posted two catches for 23 receiving yards on six targets in Week 14. On paper, it wasn’t a terrible matchup, going up against the Chicago Bears, who have ranked 15th in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends this season, but still, his efforts were good for just 4.3 fantasy points for what was just his second game outside of the top-24 fantasy tight ends this season.

LaPorta will never be in consideration as an option to sit at this point, entering Week 15 as the overall TE4 on the season, with the fourth-most receiving yards (702) and tied for the most receiving touchdowns (four) at the position. However, as is the case for his quarterback Jared Goff, it does look like we can safely project a lower overall ceiling for LaPorta when they’re on the road. Five of LaPorta’s six games this season with fewer than 10 fantasy points scored have come on the road, meanwhile, five of seven of his games with 10 or more fantasy points scored have been played at home.

Temperature check: Week 14 road antic