To conclude our series of the probability of fantasy players repeating their top performances, we look at tight ends. So far, we’ve seen about half of the top-20 running backs and wide receivers repeat their performance, while 60 percent of top-12 quarterbacks repeat their performance. So it shouldn’t come as a surprise that 52 percent of top-12 tight ends repeat their performance over the past five seasons.
As to which half of the tight ends won't repeat their performance in 2016, some are more obvious than others (like Green Bay’s Richard Rodgers). But some are less obvious. Whether it’s due to age or their respective teams looking elsewhere for targets or both, these tight ends could have a hard time repeating a top-12 fantasy season.
Delanie Walker, Tennessee Titans (2015 positional ranking: Fifth)
After years of playing in the shadow of Vernon Davis in San Francisco, Walker was signed by the Titans before the 2013 season to be their starting tight end. He was always a proficient run-blocker as a 49er, but the Titans cut him loose in the passing game and haven’t looked back. His targets have steadily increased from 86 in 2013 to 106 in 2014 to 133 in 2015. That’s directly correlated to increased production, with 571 yards his first year and topping out at 1,088 yards last year, paired with 94 receptions. There’s no doubt last year was a fantastic season, but it was one that has little chance of being duplicated.