Fantasy Football: Top smash plays, upgrades and fades for Week 6 | Fantasy Football News, Rankings and Projections | PFF

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Fantasy Football: Top smash plays, upgrades and fades for Week 6

Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (28) runs the ball against the Miami Dolphins during the second half at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Week 6 of the NFL season is here, and so is the weekly look at the top smash, upgrade and fade plays for fantasy football. I'll integrate NFL totals, spreads, implied points and proprietary PFF matchup data each week, looking for players who score highly or poorly across all metrics.


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We will also look at the projected DFS rostership for additional context for building tournament lineups.

KEY:

  • SOS: PFF's Fantasy Strength of Schedule (SoS) metric provides a league-wide, season-long view of opponent matchups for each fantasy position.
  • OL Pass Block Advantage (OL PBA): offensive-line pass blocking matchup; derived from the OL/DL Matchup tool (pass blocking advantage — the higher the percentage, the better the matchup for the offensive line, and vice versa).
  • OL Run Block Advantage (OL RBA): offensive-line pass blocking matchup; derived from the OL/DL Matchup tool (run blocking advantage — the higher the percentage, the better the matchup for the offensive line, and vice versa).
  • WR/CB Matchup Advantage (WR/CB MU): wide receiver versus cornerback matchup; derived from the WR/CB Matchup tool (matchup advantage grade — the higher the grade, the better the matchup for the receiver, and vice versa).
  • TE Matchup Advantage (TE MU): tight end versus linebackers and safeties; derived from the TE Matchup tool (matchup advantage — the higher the percentage, the better the matchup for the tight end, and vice versa).
  • Projected PPR Points (PPR Proj)

QUARTERBACKS

For quarterbacks, we are looking for big point totals and implied points. The spread doesn't matter as much for pass-heavy teams, but we are looking for trailing scripts that could cause run-heavy offenses to throw more than usual.

Smashes
Player Opponent Total Spread Implied Points QB SOS OL PBA PPR
Josh Allen @TEN 54.0 -5.5 29.75 4.5 9 23.8

Allen is the only quarterback to check off all the criteria we are looking for in a smash play for Week 6.

  • Scoring Environment: second-highest game total and implied points
  • Matchups: sixth-best QB SOS and top-six OL PBA
Upgrades
Player Opponent Total Spread Implied Points QB SOS OL PBA PPR
Dak Prescott @NE 50.5 -3.5 27.00 5.8 7 19.1
Matthew Stafford @NYG 48.5 -10.0 29.25 5.2 19 18.8
Joe Burrow @DET 47.5 -3.5 25.50 10.0 -2 22.7

Prescott isn't a lock to throw the ball a ton with Dallas running the ball so well, but the Cowboys have plenty of weapons, run a lot of plays and are an explosive offense.

  • Scoring Environment: fifth-highest game total, sixth-best implied points and a competitive spread
  • Matchups: third-best QB SOS and top-seven OL PBA
Related content for you: Week 6 Fantasy Football Rankings & Tiers via Dwain McFarland

Stafford‘s game total and spread aren't great, but this is a good spot overall. The Rams run a balanced offense in leading scripts (15th in pass rate and 18th in run rate), so there is an opportunity for enough volume to support the big plays we love from this team.

  • Scoring Environment: seventh-largest game total and fourth-most implied points
  • Matchups: fifth-best QB SOS and third-best OL PBA

Burrow and the Bengals don't provide near the passing volume we want — ranking 30th in dropbacks per game excluding overtime. However, the Lions offer the matchup of all matchups. The second-year quarterback currently projects below 5% rostership on DraftKings.

  • Scoring Environment: eighth-best game total and ninth-most implied points
  • Matchups: the No. 1 QB SOS
Fades

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