- Don't lean on the unstable running back position: Players like Jacory Croskey-Merritt are great for contending teams, but a rebuilding dynasty squad will want to consider that he could be sharing a backfield, buried on a depth chart or out of the league entirely in a few years.
- Always take shots at quarterback: Particularly in superflex leagues, you shouldn't be leaving a fantasy draft without taking a chance on at least one quarterback. But still be wary of signal-callers drafted outside of the first round.
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Estimated Reading Time: 9 minutes
Not all positions are created equal — especially for fantasy football. Understanding volatility and scarcity is the difference between trading away tomorrow’s crown jewel and flipping fool’s gold.
Running backs are the most volatile assets in fantasy, especially in dynasty leagues, where you’re trying to account for production several years ahead. Injuries, draft capital and sheer team indifference mean running backs are about as stable as a Jenga tower on a bouncy castle. Remember James Robinson, Phillip Lindsay and C.J. Spiller? All were league-winners for one year (in Lindsay’s case, two).
If you’re a contender, you live with that volatility because you need the production now. But if you’re rebuilding, then the smart play is often to move them — unless you have a genuinely special back with age on their side, like Bijan Robinson.
Take Jacory Croskey-Merritt as an example. He has burst out of the gate since being drafted by the Washington Commanders and already looks to be taking on the lead back role, especially after Austin Ekeler suffered a season-ending torn Achilles. The seventh-round pick has 48 offensive touches for the Commanders and ranks second on the offense in PFF overall grade (84.9). His 62.7 fantasy points (standard PPR scoring) make him the current RB21, but considering he has logged only 52 rushing snaps through five weeks, the fifth most among rookie running backs this season, there is reason to believe he will be a high-end RB2 come season’s end.
That is all really great for Croskey-Merritt's fantasy owners. But he does have things working against him. Washington invested basically pocket change in him, which means his leash is shorter than that of a high draft pick. Two years from now, when your rebuild is finally kicking into gear, he could be sharing a backfield, buried on a depth chart or out of the league entirely. Again, remember James Robinson and Phillip Lindsay. Robinson finished as the RB7 in his rookie season in Jacksonville, and the next year, he nosedived to the RB24. By 2022, he was basically a cuttable asset, with an RB47 finish.
Chances are you drafted Croskey-Merritt in the final rounds of your rookie draft, or picked him up off waivers for basically nothing. If you can turn that into a high draft pick or a stuttering rookie wide receiver or tight end with more potential longevity and stability, then you should do it.
If you’re contending, then Croskey-Merritt is the sort of ace in the hole you want on the roster — an explosive back who can take any touch to the house and is set to dominate the snap count for the rest of the season. You’ll certainly have to pay up for him, now that he’s the darling of the fantasy community and the early frontrunner for “waiver-wire pick-up of the year.”
Wide receivers, by contrast, are dynasty’s blue-chip stocks, along with quarterbacks. They hold value longer, age more gracefully and benefit from being tied to passers who will pepper them with targets for years. Managers who drafted Justin Jefferson in his rookie season probably can’t believe their luck.
For rebuilders, stockpiling wide receivers with elite profiles but underwhelming early usage is one of the best plays. Think injuries, rookies buried under veterans or guys playing on bad teams.
After the Houston Texans selected Nico Collins in the third round of the 2021 NFL Draft, he spent much of his rookie season playing second fiddle to Brandin Cooks. Collins’ rookie year was underwhelming, with 33 catches for 446 yards and a single touchdown. Soft-tissue injuries marred his sophomore campaign, restricting him to just 10 games in which he logged 37 catches for 481 yards and two scores.
However, he did post a 72.0 PFF receiving grade, second highest on the team (behind Jordan Akins). Collins also proved to be trustworthy over the middle of the field. In 2022, he posted a 92.9 PFF receiving grade on passes of 10-19 yards and logged elite PFF grades between the numbers at every route depth. Of his 481 yards that season, 331 came over the middle.
The underlying metrics painted a promising picture for Collins. All he had to do was avoid injuries. That's exactly what he did in 2023 when he exploded for 1,297 yards on 80 catches, averaging 16.2 yards per catch (fifth highest among those with at least 90 targets). Collins also posted a 90.6 PFF receiving grade and thus began his ascension into the upper echelon of NFL wide receivers. If you took a flier on Collins during his first few down seasons, you’re reaping those rewards now.
If you play in superflex leagues, quarterbacks are the centerpieces. They should often be your highest-scoring players, and you shouldn’t trade them easily. You also should be very wary of signal-callers drafted outside of the first round — with Jalen Hurts, Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott being the obvious exceptions, but for every one of them, there are 10 Desmond Ridders.
With that said, it’s also wise to take a swing at quarterback in every rookie draft. It’s the most valuable position in the NFL and in superflex dynasty leagues. Finding one means you don’t have to worry about that position again for years.
If you already have one, or two or three, then securing another means you can trade them for a bounty of other assets that can futureproof your roster for years to come. It also means you can afford to have those quarterbacks sit or not be good right away. If you roster Patrick Mahomes, Baker Mayfield and Geno Smith, you’re not in a hurry to see Cam Ward develop or have the Seattle Seahawks get Jalen Milroe on the field. This is situation-agnostic — contender or rebuilder, doesn’t matter. Keep swinging at quarterback every year, even if you’ve found multiple already.
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