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Evans: Fantasy Football Passing Report ahead of NFL Week 11

Nov 15, 2020; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Arizona Cardinals wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins (10) against the Buffalo Bills at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

As the NFL becomes more and more pass-heavy, fantasy football managers need to know where and how teams are distributing their targets in the passing game.

Receiver usage data — specifically targets, air yards and routes run — is much better at predicting future receiving production than simply scanning box scores. This passing report analyzes every team’s target, air yard and route run from the previous week so that fantasy managers can make informed decisions with information that's actionable and up to date.

The report includes five categories, which are defined as the following:

  • Target: a pass attempt to a receiver
  • Target share: the percentage of targets that a player receives out of his team’s total number of targeted pass attempts
  • Route run %: the percentage of routes run by a receiver out of his team’s total number of passing plays
  • Air yards: the number of yards the ball travels in the air for every pass attempt, measured from the point at which the QB throws the football to the receiver’s location at the spot of the target.
  • Air-yard share: the percentage of air yards a player receives out of his team’s total air yards.

Additionally, we can leverage this data to provide actionable DFS analysis for the Week 11 slate and suggest waiver wire pickups for your fantasy leagues.

Before we get to the team-by-team breakdown, I have identified several players who have recently seen their roles change. These players have new receiving usage data over the last few games, indicating a potential change in their future production. Their fantasy stock is either rising or falling based on these usage metrics.

Fantasy Football Stock Up Fantasy Football Stock Down
WR  Jalen Reagor WR Travis Fulgham
WR DeVante Parker WR Robert Woods
WR Jakobi Meyers WR Emmanuel Sanders
WR Josh Reynolds WR A.J. Green
WR K.J. Hamler WR T.Y. Hilton
WR Michael Pittman Jr. WR Hunter Renfrow
WR Richie James Jr. WR Kendrick Bourne
TE Jordan Reed
WR Jalen Guyton
TE Cole Kmet
TE Austin Hooper

ARZ | ATL | BLT | BUF | CAR | CIN | CHI | CLE | DEN | DAL | DET | GB | HOU | IND | JAX | KC | LVR | LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN | NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF | SEA | TB | TEN | WFT

ARIZONA CARDINALS

Player Targets Target Share Route Run % Air Yards Air-Yard Share
DeAndre Hopkins 9 32% 100% 117 57%
Christian Kirk 5 18% 85% 20 10%
Larry Fitzgerald 5 18% 95% 30 15%
Dan Arnold 4 14% 49% 17 8%
Chase Edmonds 3 11% 51% 3 1%
Andy Isabella 1 4% 22% 14 7%
Kenyan Drake 1 4% 17% 4 2%

Hail Murray! Here is the crazy thing: if you remove the 45 air yards from that game-winning play, Kyler Murray only managed 160 total air yards in a game where he attempted 32 passes (even the 205 when you include the Hail Mary is not overly impressive). Murray attempted just one other deep pass beyond 20 yards downfield. All of this is to say, for all the excitement with the Cardinals' offense, do not confuse it with a high-flying aerial attack like the Chiefs.

The Cardinals have a consolidated passing offense, and we know that the targets are going to DeAndre Hopkins and Christian Kirk. I expect Kirk to bounce back against a Seahawks secondary that he torched for two TDs in their earlier matchup.

DFS Angle

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