High-end fantasy football performances and weekly finishes are fueled by high-value targets and touches. The majority of top scorers from last week saw healthy doses of end-zone targets, air yards, routes run, deep targets and goal-line carries. Ricky Seals-Jones, Marvin Jones Jr., and Courtland Sutton were all long overdue to score based on their previous target volume inside the end zone. Each hit paydirt in Week 6. Trust the process.
To find Week 7's version of RSJ or Marvin Jones in the fantasy football rankings or as a waiver wire pickup, fantasy managers can leverage PFF’s fantasy stats tool to identify the players who saw the most high-value opportunities but failed to cash in.
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These guys are the perfect “buy-low” candidates and will soon exceed fantasy expectations for weekly fantasy matchups or large-field DFS contests.
Most end-zone targets | Week 6
|Allen Robinson II||3||0|
The league was littered with receivers commanding double-digit end-zone targets in Week 5, but Week 6 couldn’t have been more different. Only four receivers saw double-digit end-zone targets and failed to come away with a score.
The most notable of the group is Chicago Bears wide receiver Allen Robinson. It’s been an awful start for him this season despite his No. 4-ranked target share over the last four weeks. Despite the high share of looks, the Bears aren't passing enough to support high-end WR production. Robinson's 26 targets rank outside the top-40 receivers.
Chicago’s lack of passing volume isn’t the only problem, as Justin Fields has not been accurate targeting Robinson. ARob’s 54% catchable target rate ranks second-to-last over the past four weeks among wide receivers with a minimum of 25 targets (last: Odell Beckham Jr.).
However, Robinson saw a whopping three end-zone targets and 219 air yards this past week, providing a glimmer of hope he can turn his production around. The matchup versus the pass-funnel Tampa Bay Buccaneers should be a get-right spot for Robinson. He just needs Fields to hit him accurately downfield and in the end zone.
The player who ranks just above Robinson in terms of target share over the past four weeks is Brandin Cooks, who also went scoreless on his two end-zone targets in Week 6. His high-value targets were at least in his general vicinity, so I’d expect him and Davis Mills to connect on a score sooner rather than later.
The Houston Texans visit the Arizona Cardinals in Week 7 — they've allowed the second-most receiving touchdowns to wide receivers this season.
Quez Watkins is consistently earning playing time for the Philadelphia Eagles as the team’s No. 3 option. He should continue to see high-value targets with Philly likely to run more 11 personnel with Zach Ertz no longer on the roster. His explosiveness — 19.4 yards per reception, 8.3 yards after the catch per reception — makes him intriguing at $3.9K on DraftKings for Week 7.
If Watkins had hauled his lone Jalen Hurts target for a touchdown on Thursday night (his other end-zone target was a two-point conversion), he would be generating more buzz off waivers this week.
Other wide receivers who should experience positive touchdown regression based on their target volume inside the 5-yard line include Dyami Brown, Chris Godwin, DeVonta Smith, Terry McLaurin, Diontae Johnson, Odell Beckham Jr., David Njoku, Bryan Edwards and Tyler Higbee.
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CARRIES NEAR THE GOAL LINE