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Estimated Reading Time: 4 minutes
Last year, I introduced a new framework for understanding wide receiver play, quarterback decision-making and offensive potential. This framework relies on an XGBOOST model and PFF’s impressive collection of route-level data. Using machine learning and this breadth of PFF data, we can create models with the goal of predicting where a target should go on a given play.
The resulting metrics, Share of Predicted Targets and Share of Predicted Air Yards, are both more stable than their “actual” counterparts.
Week 6 Recap
- Travis Kelce: 7 targets – 25% target share
- George Pickens: 11 targets – 34.38% target share (The overall WR1 in fantasy in Week 6)
- Tucker Kraft: 2 targets – 7.69% target share (scored TD)
- Jerry Jeudy: 13 targets – 25.49% target share
- Malik Washington: 5 targets – 17.24% target share
- Jameson Williams: 7 targets – 25.93% target share (scored TD, tied for his career high in receptions)
- Dontayvion Wicks: 2 targets – 7.69% target share
Week 7 Potential Breakouts
These are players who were open significantly more than they garnered targets in Week 6. In general, players who show up on this list see an uptick in targets per route run and target share relative to both themselves and all players with similar target shares.
This list is short this week. Notably, Isaiah Bond has been stringing together good games. Bond hasn’t had less than a 10% share of predicted targets since Week 2. Tucker Kraft has consistently been a leader in share of predicted targets for Green Bay. Cooper Kupp has steadily been attaining half the share of predicted targets that Jaxon Smith-Njigba has achieved.
Explosive Potential
I wanted to identify players who were running routes that had explosive potential. Using the Predicted Targets and Predicted Air Yards model, we can identify players who are running routes with both a high probability of being targeted and when those routes are deeper downfield. I consider these “Explosive Routes.” Assuming a player continues to run these well, we should see more explosive plays downfield from them over the course of a season.
Alec Pierce has been phenomenal this season in regards to the Predicted Targets model. He has been consistently getting open and has been averaging 19.9 yards per reception. When given the proper matchup, Pierce will have the potential to total over 100 yards.
For any player with more than 100 routes, Jaxon Smith-Njigba boasts the highest percentage of explosive routes in the league. He owns the third-best PFF grade and is currently the leader in yards per route run for any player with more than two routes. That’s incredible efficiency through Week 6.
Tetairoa McMillan leads all rookies in explosive route potential, and Emeka Egbuka is the second rookie with 38.9% explosive route potential. As for the Panthers, McMillan is the only player on the team with above a 30% explosive route potential.
Closer Look at Week 6 with the Predicted Targets Model
The most consequential play in terms of EPA (Expected Points Added) where the probability of a target was in the bottom quartile came on Monday Night Football.
With 10:35 left in the game on this third-and-4, the Bears are losing by eight. At the start of the play, no wide receivers win immediately or are considered open, but the Commanders get good quick pressure. This is normally a recipe for disaster, but D’Andre Swift gets open on a motioned out route to the flat thanks to D.J. Moore and Marshon Lattimore disrupting Quan Martin.
After catching the pass, Swift proceeds to break Martin’s tackle and take it to the house. In terms of EPA, at a 5.68 mark, this was the most valuable play for all of Week 6. Typically, in Cover 1, the running back is not targeted, driving down the probability of a target.
With quick thinking and good play design, this play put the Bears within 2 points on Monday Night Football. They would ultimately go on to win the game thanks to this snap and a field goal as time expired.
Separately, I wanted to look at the most consequential play when the probability of a target was in the top quartile.
It’s first-and-10 in the second quarter, and the Seahawks are down by 3. Sam Darnold and the Seahawks must have seen something in the Jaguars’ coverage, as this seemed to be a pre-determined play action deep shot. Jaxon Smith-Njigba flies by the newly acquired corner Greg Newsome II and safety Andrew Wingard.
Darnold throws a perfect ball to Smith-Njigba, who has a 65% probability of being targeted. Smith-Njigba proceeds to walk in for a touchdown. This play was worth 5.2 expected points and was critical in the Seahawks ultimately beating the Jaguars.
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