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Estimated Reading Time: 7 minutes
Last year, I introduced a new framework for understanding wide receiver play, quarterback decision-making and offensive potential. This framework relies on an XGBOOST model and PFF’s impressive collection of route-level data. Using machine learning and this breadth of PFF data, we can create models with the goal of predicting where a target should go on a given play.
The resulting metrics, Share of Predicted Targets and Share of Predicted Air Yards, are both more stable than their “actual” counterparts
Let’s discuss the NFL leaders and some potential breakout players.
Zay Flowers continues his relative dominance in Share of Predicted Targets. Prior to the season, he was listed as a top potential breakout based on his 2024 PWOPR (a derivative of Share of Predicted Targets), and now, he is leading the NFL in a critical, predictive metric. If the Ravens end up throwing the ball more than expected this year, Flowers should continue his relative dominance.
DeVonta Smith continues to impress in the Predicted Targets space, but with Jalen Hurts only dropping back 61 times, he hasn’t had much fantasy success. There will be games in which Hurts is forced to throw the ball, and Smith should dominate target share when that happens.
Juwan Johnson leads all NFL tight ends in Share of Predicted Targets. This was not on my radar, but Johnson currently leads all tight ends in routes run (84) and is a main receiving threat on his team. His 61.6 PFF receiving grade isn’t great, but as long as he is on the field, he should maintain fantasy relevance and garner targets.
Rome Odunze is in awesome breakout territory. He had an elite college profile and a very good share of predicted targets last year without having a ton of success, thanks to a dysfunctional offense. We are likely witnessing a second-year breakout from him. He currently possesses the 17th-best PFF receiving grade at WR (min. 10 targets).
Week 2 “Coach, I Was Open” Table Recap
I would consider Week 2 a great success for the model. There were only two true misses in Demario Douglas and Khalil Shakir, with some massive target-share-based hits in Amon-Ra St. Brown, Nico Collins and A.J. Brown.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown: 11 targets – 39% Target Share
- Nico Collins: 9 targets – 38% Target Share
- A.J. Brown: 8 Targets – 36% Target Share
- DeVonta Smith: 6 Targets – 27% Target Share
- Jaylen Waddle: 6 Targets – 19% Target Share
- Tre Tucker: 8 Targets – 19% Target Share
- Tee Higgins: 8 Targets – 18% Target Share
- George Pickens: 9 Targets – 17%
- Alec Pierce: 5 Targets – 15% Target Share
- Olamide Zaccheaus: 5 Targets – 17% Target Share
- Hunter Renfrow: 9 Targets – 16% Target Share
- Demario Douglas: 1 Target – 4% Target Share
- Khalil Shakir: 2 Targets – 8% Target Share
Week 3 Potential Breakouts
Don’t sound the alarm or anything, but Kyle Pitts is the NFL’s No. 2 tight end in Share of Predicted Targets. Pitts’ trend comes in what could be a very Falcons good offense as Michael Penix Jr. gains more experience. For Pitts, 32.1% was his highest Share of Predicted Targets in his entire NFL career. This is an incredibly good sign for him and the Falcons.
Week 2 Review
Ladd McConkey
On the Monday Night Football broadcast, the announcers discussed a play where McConkey was wide open for what would have been a touchdown, and I could not wait to see what my model thought. This play happened on a 3rd-and-6 in the middle of the second quarter. The Chargers were only winning by 4.
Justin Herbert seemingly looks at McConkey for his first read, but quickly moves to Quentin Johnston — who is not an awful choice at the moment, but the worst by probability based on the model. Had Herbert stuck with McConkey just a little longer, this would have been an easy touchdown, assuming an accurate throw.
Tyreek Hill
This play ended with four receivers getting open, but no completion. Hill had the highest probability of a target, but really, all options were good in some way.
Tua Tagovailoa ends up trying to check this ball down to Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, and the throw is far too high for him to catch it. There is slight pressure on Tagovailoa’s left, but he had plenty of time to set his feet and make a throw. How Tagovailoa handles pressure is something to monitor in future weeks.
Alec Pierce
The Colts are losing this game by 8 points with 10 minutes left in the third quarter. It’s first-and-10 at midfield, and a score would really help them out at this point in the game.
Daniel Jones only looks at Tyler Warren on this play. Warren never gains any separation, and Alec Pierce is running as wide open as wide open gets in the NFL. We don’t know who the second read was on this play, but based on the initial alignment, there was a good chance it was Pierce, and this would have been an easy touchdown. Jones ends up scrambling for two yards.
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