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Fantasy Football: Hunting Week 5's best DFS stacks

Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Browns wide receiver Amari Cooper (2) catches a pass during the third quarter against the Pittsburgh Steelers at FirstEnergy Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Dermer-USA TODAY Sports

This DFS main-slate stacks analysis is a variation of the methodology used in analyses on the single-game DraftKings showdown slates. It uses the combination of current projections, historical game results and similarity algorithms to simulate an upcoming game by looking back at the most similar historical matchups. In this analysis, I’m taking the same outline and applying it instead to the DFS main slate by projecting the likelihood each team’s QB-WR, RB-DST, QB-WR-TE, QB-RB-WR stacks will be the highest scoring of the slate. These are some of the most popular stack combinations employed in DFS strategy.

The numbers below are harnessing the unexpected connections and reactions between players that have actually happened over the past several years and thereby point to under/overvalued stacks that won’t be identified through traditional projections and logical deduction.


QUARTERBACK/WIDE RECEIVER STACK

QB/WR players
Team Opponent Highest % Player Pos DK Fpts DK Salary FD Fpts FD Salary
CLV LAC 7.7 Jacoby Brissett QB 18.9 5,600 17.7 6,700
CLV LAC 7.7 Amari Cooper WR 14.1 6,000 11.1 7,000
ARZ PHI 7.5 Kyler Murray QB 20.8 7,400 19.7 8,100
ARZ PHI 7.5 Marquise Brown WR 15.2 7,200 11.9 7,800
TB ATL 6.7 Tom Brady QB 24.2 6,000 22.4 7,800
TB ATL 6.7 Mike Evans WR 18.1 6,900 14.7 7,500
BUF PIT 6.5 Josh Allen QB 27.3 8,200 25.5 9,000
BUF PIT 6.5 Stefon Diggs WR 18.7 8,400 14.7 8,600
NYJ MIA 6.1 Zach Wilson QB 16.9 5,300 15.8 7,200
NYJ MIA 6.1 Garrett Wilson WR 10.5 5,200 8.4 6,000
DET NE 5.8 Jared Goff QB 15.1 6,100 14.2 8,000
DET NE 5.8 Amon-Ra St. Brown WR 14.3 7,600 10.9 8,200
MIN CHI 5.5 Kirk Cousins QB 21.4 6,300 19.8 7,100
MIN CHI 5.5 Justin Jefferson WR 22.7 8,900 17.8 8,800
ATL TB 5.3 Marcus Mariota QB 18.0 5,400 16.7 6,800
ATL TB 5.3 Drake London WR 14.7 5,900 11.4 6,200
DAL LA 5.3 Cooper Rush QB 17.1 5,400 15.9 6,500
DAL LA 5.3 CeeDee Lamb WR 14.8 7,000 11.7 7,200
PHI ARZ 5.3 Jalen Hurts QB 26.7 8,100 24.8 8,600
PHI ARZ 5.3 A.J. Brown WR 18.4 7,500 14.6 8,000
NO SEA 4.2 Jameis Winston QB 20.1 5,500 18.8 7,300
NO SEA 4.2 Chris Olave WR 18.5 5,700 14.6 6,900
LAC CLV 4.0 Justin Herbert QB 20.0 7,100 18.7 8,200
LAC CLV 4.0 Mike Williams WR 15.4 7,100 12.3 7,400
CHI MIN 3.6 Justin Fields QB 16.9 5,300 15.9 6,600
CHI MIN 3.6 Darnell Mooney WR 10.8 5,000 8.6 5,800
JAX HST 3.6 Trevor Lawrence QB 19.2 5,600 18.0 7,600
JAX HST 3.6 Christian Kirk WR 14.1 6,600 11.2 7,600
TEN WAS 3.3 Ryan Tannehill QB 17.8 5,800 17.0 6,900
TEN WAS 3.3 Robert Woods WR 10.7 5,200 8.4 5,900
MIA NYJ 3.2 Teddy Bridgewater QB 20.7 5,400 19.6 6,400
MIA NYJ 3.2 Tyreek Hill WR 20.8 8,000 16.6 8,400
LA DAL 3.0 Matthew Stafford QB 19.8 6,400 18.5 7,400
LA DAL 3.0 Cooper Kupp WR 22.0 9,600 17.1 9,500
WAS TEN 2.9 Carson Wentz QB 17.5 5,700 16.3 6,800
WAS TEN 2.9 Curtis Samuel WR 13.8 5,800 11.0 5,800
NE DET 2.7 Mac Jones QB 18.4 5,200 17.2 6,600
NE DET 2.7 Jakobi Meyers WR 12.7 4,800 9.9 6,000
SEA NO 2.6 Geno Smith QB 18.4 5,500 17.0 6,900
SEA NO 2.6 D.K. Metcalf WR 16.4 6,800 13.0 7,100
SF CAR 2.1 Jimmy Garoppolo QB 17.3 5,400 16.3 7,000
SF CAR 2.1 Deebo Samuel WR 18.9 7,700 15.9 7,300
PIT BUF 1.8 Kenny Pickett QB 15.6 5,100 14.6 6,500
PIT BUF 1.8 Diontae Johnson WR 12.4 6,100 9.5 6,700
CAR SF 1.5 Baker Mayfield QB 13.9 5,100 13.0 6,400
CAR SF 1.5 D.J. Moore WR 13.7 5,200 10.9 5,900
HST JAX 1.4 Davis Mills QB 16.9 5,000 15.6 6,400
HST JAX 1.4 Brandin Cooks WR 17.4 6,100 13.5 6,800

RUNNING BACK/DST

RB/DST players
Team Opponent Highest % Player Pos DK Fpts DK Salary FD Fpts FD Salary
TEN WAS 11.5 Derrick Henry RB 20.7 8,200 18.0 8,900
TEN WAS 11.5 Titans DST DST 6.4 3,000 6.4 4,200
LAC CLV 7.9 Austin Ekeler RB 18.8 7,800 15.7 9,000
LAC CLV 7.9 Chargers DST DST 4.9 3,100 4.9 3,900
MIN CHI 7.0 Dalvin Cook RB 20.0 7,300 17.3 7,300
MIN CHI 7.0 Vikings DST DST 10.2 3,600 10.2 4,300
SF CAR 6.7 Jeff Wilson Jr. RB 13.4 5,500 12.2 6,500
SF CAR 6.7 49ers DST DST 9.1 3,800 9.1 4,400
BUF PIT 5.9 Devin Singletary RB 13.3 6,100 11.6 6,000
BUF PIT 5.9 Bills DST DST 11.4 4,100 11.4 5,000
MIA NYJ 5.5 Raheem Mostert RB 10.4 5,000 9.4 5,800
ARZ PHI 5.5 James Conner RB 12.4 6,300 10.6 6,700
MIA NYJ 5.5 Dolphins DST DST 7.9 3,200 7.9 4,900
ARZ PHI 5.5 Cardinals DST DST 5.5 2,100 5.5 3,400
PHI ARZ 5.4 Miles Sanders RB 10.9 6,500 9.5 7,600
PHI ARZ 5.4 Eagles DST DST 6.8 3,500 6.8 4,500
NO SEA 5.1 Alvin Kamara RB 17.5 6,600 15.2 7,000
NO SEA 5.1 Saints DST DST 8.2 3,300 8.2 3,800
ATL TB 4.9 Tyler Allgeier RB 10.2 4,700 8.9 5,700
ATL TB 4.9 Falcons DST DST 2.9 2,200 2.9 3,000
NE DET 4.8 Rhamondre Stevenson RB 10.1 5,500 9.2 6,000
JAX HST 4.8 James Robinson RB 12.4 6,300 11.2 8,000
NE DET 4.8 Patriots DST DST 6.3 2,900 6.3 3,600
JAX HST 4.8 Jaguars DST DST 7.8 3,400 7.8 4,600
TB ATL 4.5 Leonard Fournette RB 17.6 6,900 15.6 7,800
TB ATL 4.5 Buccaneers DST DST 8.2 3,900 8.2 4,800
DAL LA 4.2 Ezekiel Elliott RB 10.5 5,800 9.2 6,200
DAL LA 4.2 Cowboys DST DST 6.2 2,500 6.2 4,100
LA DAL 3.3 Cam Akers RB 10.8 5,600 9.7 6,100
LA DAL 3.3 Rams DST DST 6.6 3,700 6.6 3,900
SEA NO 3.0 Rashaad Penny RB 10.3 5,300 9.2 6,900
CAR SF 3.0 Christian McCaffrey RB 19.1 8,500 15.8 8,700
SEA NO 3.0 Seahawks DST DST 6.1 2,500 6.1 3,100
CAR SF 3.0 Panthers DST DST 5.4 2,600 5.4 3,600
CLV LAC 2.5 Nick Chubb RB 13.9 8,000 12.5 9,400
CLV LAC 2.5 Browns DST DST 6.5 2,700 6.5 4,000
WAS TEN 1.9 Antonio Gibson RB 13.9 5,900 12.1 6,300
WAS TEN 1.9 Commanders DST DST 5.5 2,700 5.5 3,200
PIT BUF 1.5 Najee Harris RB 12.0 6,500 10.3 6,600
PIT BUF 1.5 Steelers DST DST 4.3 2,400 4.3 3,500
DET NE 1.3 D'Andre Swift RB 14.6 7,000 12.7 8,300
DET NE 1.3 Lions DST DST 5.5 2,800 5.5 4,700
CHI MIN 1.2 David Montgomery RB 12.3 6,200 10.7 7,100
CHI MIN 1.2 Bears DST DST 4.5 2,300 4.5 3,300
HST JAX 0.8 Rex Burkhead RB 8.7 5,000 7.5 5,100
HST JAX 0.8 Texans DST DST 5.7 2,400 5.7 3,700
NYJ MIA 0.6 Breece Hall RB 12.4 5,400 10.7 6,600
NYJ MIA 0.6 Jets DST DST 5.2 2,600 5.2 4,000

QUARTERBACK/WIDE RECEIVER/TIGHT END

QB/WR/TE players
Team Opponent Highest % Player Pos DK Fpts DK Salary FD Fpts FD Salary
TB ATL 10.1 Tom Brady QB 24.2 6,000 22.4 7,800
TB ATL 10.1 Mike Evans WR 18.1 6,900 14.7 7,500
TB ATL 10.1 Cade Otton TE 6.5 2,500 5.3 4,100
LAC CLV 9.6 Justin Herbert QB 20.0 7,100 18.7 8,200
LAC CLV 9.6 Mike Williams WR 15.4 7,100 12.3 7,400
LAC CLV 9.6 Gerald Everett TE 11.1 4,200 8.7 6,300
MIN CHI 8.1 Kirk Cousins QB 21.4 6,300 19.8 7,100
MIN CHI 8.1 Justin Jefferson WR 22.7 8,900 17.8 8,800
MIN CHI 8.1 Irv Smith Jr. TE 8.8 3,200 7.2 4,700
BUF PIT 7.1 Josh Allen QB 27.3 8,200 25.5 9,000
BUF PIT 7.1 Stefon Diggs WR 18.7 8,400 14.7 8,600
BUF PIT 7.1 Dawson Knox TE 9.9 3,600 8.0 5,000
PHI ARZ 6.7 Jalen Hurts QB 26.7 8,100 24.8 8,600
PHI ARZ 6.7 A.J. Brown WR 18.4 7,500 14.6 8,000
PHI ARZ 6.7 Dallas Goedert TE 10.6 4,700 8.5 6,100
NO SEA 6.1 Jameis Winston QB 20.1 5,500 18.8 7,300
NO SEA 6.1 Chris Olave WR 18.5 5,700 14.6 6,900
NO SEA 6.1 Juwan Johnson TE 7.9 3,000 6.4 4,700
JAX HST 5.7 Trevor Lawrence QB 19.2 5,600 18.0 7,600
JAX HST 5.7 Christian Kirk WR 14.1 6,600 11.2 7,600
JAX HST 5.7 Evan Engram TE 9.7 3,100 7.6 4,900
ATL TB 5.1 Marcus Mariota QB 18.0 5,400 16.7 6,800
ATL TB 5.1 Drake London WR 14.7 5,900 11.4 6,200
ATL TB 5.1 Kyle Pitts TE 13.4 4,400 10.6 5,600
ARZ PHI 4.9 Kyler Murray QB 20.8 7,400 19.7 8,100
ARZ PHI 4.9 Marquise Brown WR 15.2 7,200 11.9 7,800
ARZ PHI 4.9 Zach Ertz TE 12.0 4,800 9.3 5,900
LA DAL 4.5 Matthew Stafford QB 19.8 6,400 18.5 7,400
LA DAL 4.5 Cooper Kupp WR 22.0 9,600 17.1 9,500
LA DAL 4.5 Tyler Higbee TE 12.5 4,300 9.7 5,500
MIA NYJ 4.2 Teddy Bridgewater QB 20.7 5,400 19.6 6,400
MIA NYJ 4.2 Tyreek Hill WR 20.8 8,000 16.6 8,400
MIA NYJ 4.2 Mike Gesicki TE 5.3 3,500 4.3 5,000
NE DET 3.4 Mac Jones QB 18.4 5,200 17.2 6,600
NE DET 3.4 Jakobi Meyers WR 12.7 4,800 9.9 6,000
NE DET 3.4 Hunter Henry TE 6.4 2,900 5.2 4,500
DET NE 3.3 Jared Goff QB 15.1 6,100 14.2 8,000
DET NE 3.3 Amon-Ra St. Brown WR 14.3 7,600 10.9 8,200
DET NE 3.3 T.J. Hockenson TE 9.8 4,900 7.8 7,000
TEN WAS 3.2 Ryan Tannehill QB 17.8 5,800 17.0 6,900
TEN WAS 3.2 Robert Woods WR 10.7 5,200 8.4 5,900
TEN WAS 3.2 Austin Hooper TE 5.0 2,800 3.9 4,500
DAL LA 3.1 Cooper Rush QB 17.1 5,400 15.9 6,500
DAL LA 3.1 CeeDee Lamb WR 14.8 7,000 11.7 7,200
DAL LA 3.1 Dalton Schultz TE 10.0 3,400 7.8 4,800
CLV LAC 2.9 Jacoby Brissett QB 18.9 5,600 17.7 6,700
CLV LAC 2.9 Amari Cooper WR 14.1 6,000 11.1 7,000
CLV LAC 2.9 David Njoku TE 9.9 3,800 7.8 5,700
CHI MIN 2.8 Justin Fields QB 16.9 5,300 15.9 6,600
CHI MIN 2.8 Darnell Mooney WR 10.8 5,000 8.6 5,800
CHI MIN 2.8 Cole Kmet TE 7.8 3,000 6.0 4,600
NYJ MIA 2.8 Zach Wilson QB 16.9 5,300 15.8 7,200
NYJ MIA 2.8 Garrett Wilson WR 10.5 5,200 8.4 6,000
NYJ MIA 2.8 Tyler Conklin TE 6.5 3,700 5.0 5,300
PIT BUF 2.5 Kenny Pickett QB 15.6 5,100 14.6 6,500
PIT BUF 2.5 Diontae Johnson WR 12.4 6,100 9.5 6,700
PIT BUF 2.5 Pat Freiermuth TE 9.0 4,100 7.0 5,800
SF CAR 1.5 Jimmy Garoppolo QB 17.3 5,400 16.3 7,000
SF CAR 1.5 Deebo Samuel WR 18.9 7,700 15.9 7,300
SF CAR 1.5 George Kittle TE 10.0 5,200 8.0 6,500
SEA NO 1.4 Geno Smith QB 18.4 5,500 17.0 6,900
SEA NO 1.4 D.K. Metcalf WR 16.4 6,800 13.0 7,100
SEA NO 1.4 Will Dissly TE 6.2 3,300 4.9 5,100
WAS TEN 1.0 Carson Wentz QB 17.5 5,700 16.3 6,800
WAS TEN 1.0 Curtis Samuel WR 13.8 5,800 11.0 5,800
WAS TEN 1.0 Logan Thomas TE 8.7 3,200 6.8 5,200
HST JAX 0.8 Davis Mills QB 16.9 5,000 15.6 6,400
HST JAX 0.8 Brandin Cooks WR 17.4 6,100 13.5 6,800
HST JAX 0.8 O.J. Howard TE 5.7 2,600 4.5 4,500
CAR SF 0.6 Baker Mayfield QB 13.9 5,100 13.0 6,400
CAR SF 0.6 D.J. Moore WR 13.7 5,200 10.9 5,900
CAR SF 0.6 Tommy Tremble TE 3.8 2,500 3.0 4,600

QUARTERBACK/RUNNING BACK/WIDE RECEIVER

QB/RB/WR players
Team Opponent Highest % Player Pos DK Fpts DK Salary FD Fpts FD Salary
CLV LAC 8.2 Jacoby Brissett QB 18.9 5,600 17.7 6,700
CLV LAC 8.2 Nick Chubb RB 13.9 8,000 12.5 9,400
CLV LAC 8.2 Amari Cooper WR 14.1 6,000 11.1 7,000
DET NE 7.7 Jared Goff QB 15.1 6,100 14.2 8,000
DET NE 7.7 D'Andre Swift RB 14.6 7,000 12.7 8,300
DET NE 7.7 Amon-Ra St. Brown WR 14.3 7,600 10.9 8,200
TB ATL 6.8 Tom Brady QB 24.2 6,000 22.4 7,800
TB ATL 6.8 Leonard Fournette RB 17.6 6,900 15.6 7,800
TB ATL 6.8 Mike Evans WR 18.1 6,900 14.7 7,500
MIN CHI 6.7 Kirk Cousins QB 21.4 6,300 19.8 7,100
MIN CHI 6.7 Dalvin Cook RB 20.0 7,300 17.3 7,300
MIN CHI 6.7 Justin Jefferson WR 22.7 8,900 17.8 8,800
DAL LA 6.3 Cooper Rush QB 17.1 5,400 15.9 6,500
DAL LA 6.3 Ezekiel Elliott RB 10.5 5,800 9.2 6,200
DAL LA 6.3 CeeDee Lamb WR 14.8 7,000 11.7 7,200
JAX HST 6.3 Trevor Lawrence QB 19.2 5,600 18.0 7,600
JAX HST 6.3 James Robinson RB 12.4 6,300 11.2 8,000
JAX HST 6.3 Christian Kirk WR 14.1 6,600 11.2 7,600
ATL TB 5.9 Marcus Mariota QB 18.0 5,400 16.7 6,800
ATL TB 5.9 Tyler Allgeier RB 10.2 4,700 8.9 5,700
ATL TB 5.9 Drake London WR 14.7 5,900 11.4 6,200
BUF PIT 5.9 Josh Allen QB 27.3 8,200 25.5 9,000
BUF PIT 5.9 Devin Singletary RB 13.3 6,100 11.6 6,000
BUF PIT 5.9 Stefon Diggs WR 18.7 8,400 14.7 8,600
ARZ PHI 5.6 Kyler Murray QB 20.8 7,400 19.7 8,100
ARZ PHI 5.6 James Conner RB 12.4 6,300 10.6 6,700
ARZ PHI 5.6 Marquise Brown WR 15.2 7,200 11.9 7,800
TEN WAS 4.8 Ryan Tannehill QB 17.8 5,800 17.0 6,900
TEN WAS 4.8 Derrick Henry RB 20.7 8,200 18.0 8,900
TEN WAS 4.8 Robert Woods WR 10.7 5,200 8.4 5,900
LAC CLV 4.7 Justin Herbert QB 20.0 7,100 18.7 8,200
LAC CLV 4.7 Austin Ekeler RB 18.8 7,800 15.7 9,000
LAC CLV 4.7 Mike Williams WR 15.4 7,100 12.3 7,400
NYJ MIA 4.4 Zach Wilson QB 16.9 5,300 15.8 7,200
NYJ MIA 4.4 Breece Hall RB 12.4 5,400 10.7 6,600
NYJ MIA 4.4 Garrett Wilson WR 10.5 5,200 8.4 6,000
PHI ARZ 3.9 Jalen Hurts QB 26.7 8,100 24.8 8,600
PHI ARZ 3.9 Miles Sanders RB 10.9 6,500 9.5 7,600
PHI ARZ 3.9 A.J. Brown WR 18.4 7,500 14.6 8,000
NE DET 3.5 Mac Jones QB 18.4 5,200 17.2 6,600
NE DET 3.5 Rhamondre Stevenson RB 10.1 5,500 9.2 6,000
NE DET 3.5 Jakobi Meyers WR 12.7 4,800 9.9 6,000
CHI MIN 3.4 Justin Fields QB 16.9 5,300 15.9 6,600
CHI MIN 3.4 David Montgomery RB 12.3 6,200 10.7 7,100
CHI MIN 3.4 Darnell Mooney WR 10.8 5,000 8.6 5,800
MIA NYJ 2.9 Teddy Bridgewater QB 20.7 5,400 19.6 6,400
MIA NYJ 2.9 Raheem Mostert RB 10.4 5,000 9.4 5,800
MIA NYJ 2.9 Tyreek Hill WR 20.8 8,000 16.6 8,400
SEA NO 2.9 Geno Smith QB 18.4 5,500 17.0 6,900
SEA NO 2.9 Rashaad Penny RB 10.3 5,300 9.2 6,900
SEA NO 2.9 D.K. Metcalf WR 16.4 6,800 13.0 7,100
PIT BUF 2.6 Kenny Pickett QB 15.6 5,100 14.6 6,500
PIT BUF 2.6 Najee Harris RB 12.0 6,500 10.3 6,600
PIT BUF 2.6 Diontae Johnson WR 12.4 6,100 9.5 6,700
SF CAR 2.6 Jimmy Garoppolo QB 17.3 5,400 16.3 7,000
SF CAR 2.6 Jeff Wilson Jr. RB 13.4 5,500 12.2 6,500
SF CAR 2.6 Deebo Samuel WR 18.9 7,700 15.9 7,300
NO SEA 1.6 Jameis Winston QB 20.1 5,500 18.8 7,300
NO SEA 1.6 Alvin Kamara RB 17.5 6,600 15.2 7,000
NO SEA 1.6 Chris Olave WR 18.5 5,700 14.6 6,900
HST JAX 1.3 Davis Mills QB 16.9 5,000 15.6 6,400
HST JAX 1.3 Rex Burkhead RB 8.7 5,000 7.5 5,100
HST JAX 1.3 Brandin Cooks WR 17.4 6,100 13.5 6,800
CAR SF 1.2 Baker Mayfield QB 13.9 5,100 13.0 6,400
CAR SF 1.2 Christian McCaffrey RB 19.1 8,500 15.8 8,700
CAR SF 1.2 D.J. Moore WR 13.7 5,200 10.9 5,900
LA DAL 1.1 Matthew Stafford QB 19.8 6,400 18.5 7,400
LA DAL 1.1 Cam Akers RB 10.8 5,600 9.7 6,100
LA DAL 1.1 Cooper Kupp WR 22.0 9,600 17.1 9,500
WAS TEN 1.0 Carson Wentz QB 17.5 5,700 16.3 6,800
WAS TEN 1.0 Antonio Gibson RB 13.9 5,900 12.1 6,300
WAS TEN 1.0 Curtis Samuel WR 13.8 5,800 11.0 5,800

METHODOLOGY

For each game on the DFS Sunday main slate, I looked through thousands of NFL matchups from 2014-2021 and found the closest analogies according to the following parameters: Betting spread, over/under, average fantasy points scoring for the top-ranked positional players of both rosters (QB1, RB1, WR1, TE1).

Once I find the 75 most similar matchups for each upcoming game, I then simulate the main slate 10,000 times by randomly choosing one of the 75 matchups for each game and then find the highest scoring QB-WR, RB-DST, QB-WR-TE and QB-RB-WR stacks on the entire simulated slate.

Every match of historical and current games is not perfect, but by matching 75 different matchups to each game and simulating 10,000 times, we can smooth out the bumps and get a strong picture of how a slate of similar games would have played out.

The last step is totaling up the number of times a particular team shows up as the top stacks for each of the three stacks projected and then dividing that number by the total simulations. That number is what I call the “Highest scoring %” on the Y-axis of the plots below labeled by team logo. Below the plots by team, I join the highest projected players that make up the stacks for that team and list their projected fantasy points and salaries for DraftKings and FanDuel.


HOW TO VIEW THE PLOTS

Each plot below has every team on the main slate positioned by the combined salary of the stack and the percentage of time that team’s stack was the highest scoring in the 10K simulations.

A way to look at them is that anything above the dashed horizontal line is a good scoring stack, and anything to the right of the dashed vertical line is a high-priced stack. You should pay most attention to the upper-right (high-scoring and high-priced) and upper-left (high-scoring and low-priced) quadrants. Ideally, you’ll find something in the upper-left that you’re confident in, but often paying up and moving into the upper-right can be beneficial.

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