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Hermsmeyer: Air Yards Buy-Low Model, Week 5

Chicago, Illinois, USA; Houston Texans wide receiver Brandin Cooks (13) signals first down after a catch in the first quarter against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Bartel-USA TODAY Sports

Estimated reading time: 6 minutes

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Week 4 Review

This past week was one to forget for the model. Instead of the counterintuitive plays hitting, the chalk ruled the roost this week. Like the cream of the NFL receiving corps that they are, Justin Jefferson, Mike Evans, Cooper Kupp and Tyreek Hill rose to the top this past week, leaving little room for our buy low try-hards to shine.

No one in the Week 4 buy-low list cracked the top 10, and just two made the top 20. The list was headlined by Brandin Cooks, but I highlighted him as less of a buy low and more of a blowup candidate since his consensus projection on the week was rather high for a true buy-low candidate (we’re all about radical transparency here).

All told, Cooks and five others beat their consensus projections, but four receivers were unable to crack even four lousy PPR points, underlining the extremely low floor inherent in selecting from this universe of receivers. D.J. Chark was out for Week 4 and missed out on the Detroit Lions offensive explosion while Treylon Burks was injured in the fourth quarter Sunday and may miss some time after being seen with a walking boot and crutches after the game.

Brighter days are ahead. I’ve had a closed-door meeting with the model and it understands it needs to grind hard this week, and it promises it will do better.

Here are the full results, with players who beat their consensus projections in bold.


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