Examining the next-read and checkdown passing games for fantasy football: Part 1

• QB Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: Prescott is an elite next-read and checkdown passer.
  
• QB Bo Nix, Denver Broncos: Nix scored more than 300.0 fantasy points while leading the league in checkdowns.
  
• 2026 NFL Draft season is here: Try the best-in-class PFF Mock Draft Simulator and learn about 2026's top prospects while trading and drafting for your favorite NFL team.

Estimated Reading Time: 18 minutes

A recent piece prompts a follow-up series, investigating passing and receiving productivity related to next-read passes and checkdowns. Passing data is examined in Part 1, while situational receiving data is examined in Part 2. 

Today’s pass-heavy NFL relies heavily on schemed-up first-read productivity, yet a small number of talented quarterbacks successfully generate fantasy football production via next reads and checkdowns, both for themselves and their pass catchers. As detailed previously, “PFF charts 10,865 first-read passing attempts, 1,555 next-read passing attempts and 1,890 checkdowns thrown during the full 2025 season.”

This series uses the regular season rather than the full NFL season through Super Bowl LX to accurately inspect passing volume data via an unbiased, playoff-weighted sample. Its findings correspond helpfully. 

NFL quarterback passing read data among 15 NFL quarterbacks with at least 55 next-read passing attempts and/or 55 checkdowns in Weeks 1-18 and corresponding data points.

Among the 15 qualifying quarterbacks above, seven scored 300.0-plus points. Four did so by either throwing 60-plus attempts in both categories or throwing 60-plus attempts in one category and scrambling 40-plus times. Prescott and Stafford qualify as the former, unsurprisingly grading out as elite players, as do their receiving corps. Herbert and Williams qualify as the latter, grading out as above-average passers throwing to above-average receiving corps.

Goff, Nix and Maye are the three 300.0-plus-point outliers. 

As mentioned previously, two Lions pass catchers rank in the top three among NFL skill position players in Weeks 1-18 in high-value, centerfield target sums. 

Nix leads this article’s sample with 96 checkdowns. Maye leads this article’s sample with 61 scrambles. Goff, Nix and Maye’s outlier data points help account for their outlier scoring status.

Ward, Brissett, Rodgers, Love and Flacco checked down 60-plus times and failed to score 242.0 fantasy points or more. The three season-long starting quarterbacks — Ward, Rodgers and Love — combine for just 10 QB1 weekly finishes, including six in the QB7-12 range. This quarterback archetype is undesirable for starting fantasy football purposes, but fantasy value can be extracted from them by drafting each team’s running back. Among NFL regular-season running back corps, all three teams’ running back corps rank in the top 10 in checkdown targets earned.

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (QB1, 378.6 fantasy points), Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (QB4, 354.2 fantasy points), Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (QB8, 313.1 fantasy points) and Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (QB11, 292.7 fantasy points) are the four QB1s that do not qualify for the table above. All four scrambled 40-plus times. 

Allen earns a 76.9 PFF passing grade, Lawrence earns an 81.5 PFF passing grade, Hurts earns a 76.9 PFF passing grade, and Mahomes earns a 70.7 PFF passing grade.

Talented quarterbacks who are willing to scramble frequently after moving past their first read make for smart QB1 candidates. Quarterbacks who frequently checkdown must either frequently throw passes to the next read or checkdown at an outlier level to return QB1 value. Unfortunately, reliable fantasy football quarterbacks who frequently target their next read are difficult to find.