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Erickson: NFL Wild Card Saturday DFS Primer

Dec 10, 2020; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Rams running back Cam Akers (23) carries the ball against the New England Patriots during the first half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

In this week’s preview of the NFL Super Wildcard Weekend, I'm breaking down each Saturday game from a DFS perspective.

I hit on some of my favorite DFS plays in PFF’s huge NFL Super Wildcard Weekend preview and my DFS locks/fades piece, but there's plenty more to go over. 

I’ll call out my favorite DFS plays and game stacks. Stacking has been a tried-and-true approach to winning tournaments — if the right stack hits, then it’s an instant print fest.

I’ll also highlight key injury notes that could prove to be potential game-changers. 

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ BUFFALO BILLS

Bills quarterback Josh Allen celebrating after receiver Stefon Diggs' four-yard touchdown catch in a 35-32 win over the Rams.

Josh Allen is my clear favorite among QBs on the Saturday slate, which is why I made him my lock of the week at the quarterback position. He has reached supernova status, ranking No. 1 among QBs in fantasy points per game (27.9) and No. 2 in expected fantasy points per game (23.2) since Week 13 despite playing limited snaps last week.

The one potential concern for Allen is the Colts’ heavy usage of zone coverage, as noted by PFF’s Dwain McFarland on the PFF Fantasy Football Podcast. No team has run more zone coverage since Week 13 than Indy.

The Bills’ QB owns a 5:9 TD to INT ratio versus zone this season. Against man coverage, his TD to INT ratio is 19:1. 

Still, this doesn't concern me too much because Allen has been better versus zone coverage during his recent hot streak and tends to run more against it. He has more rushing yards (256 vs 161) and rushing attempts (43 vs 30) against zone coverage looks. QB rushing equates to more fantasy points. 

Allen’s PFF passing grade (90.4) versus zone ranks fourth-best among signal-callers since Week 13. He’s also tied with Matthew Stafford for the most big-time throws (10) in that same time span. 

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