Dynasty Stock Watch: Key veterans heading into Week 5

In the last edition of the Dynasty Stock Watch, as we predicted, Russell Wilson rebounded to the tune of averaging 334 yards and three touchdowns over his last two games. Same goes for Mark Ingram, who appears to have staved off a challenge from future Hall of Famer Adrian Peterson. The Saints have clearly moved away from Peterson, who has just 13 carries in the last two games, while Ingram is averaging 14 per. Meanwhile, Amari Cooper is still in a holding pattern — you wouldn’t want to sell him at his lowest value to date. Coby Fleener, if anything, is still a buy after back-to-back disappointing games where he amassed just five targets. The Saints still pass a ton and he’ll get a good share occasionally, even if only accidentally. And Corey Coleman is still on the shelf and, to me, remains a good name to sell based on his draft pedigree.

Without further ado, we look at a few veterans on your dynasty roster and what to do with them before Week 5 of the season. As always, we will include their current ranking according to FFC ADP.

Carson Wentz, QB, Philadelphia Eagles

(Current dynasty positional ADP: 17)

Even though Wentz is only in his second year, the clock is ticking on his dynasty value. After all, NFL teams hardly know who will be on their own roster next year — imagine how it is for your dynasty roster. And with the vast majority of dynasty leagues capping the number of quarterbacks you can start to one, your only objective at the position should be to get a stud. At least with studs, you know you have at least a two- to three-year window to win your championship. With that context, we need to determine if Wentz is capable of joining that class, and joining it fast.

Let’s first look at the good. Wentz had the fifth-best completion percentage and sixth-lowest interception rate all-time among rookie quarterbacks with at least 300 attempts. He also threw for 3,700 yards, but that kind of cumulative number is easy to attain when you’re one of 18 rookie quarterbacks all time to start all 16 games of their rookie season. If we look at the most important part of fantasy — scoring touchdowns — Wentz is very average. Of those 18 quarterbacks that started all 16 games, Wentz’s total of 16 passing touchdowns ranks 12th. And if you look at PFF’s top-ranked dynasty quarterbacks, Wentz’s 18 (he included two rushing scores) is the lowest among the top eight on the list. In fact, the lowest touchdown total of those top eight quarterbacks is 21.

So is there room for improvement? Again, the numbers below the surface for Wentz are very average. He was PFF’s 23rd-highest-rated quarterback last season, was only 25th in PFF’s quarterback rating, 13th in PFF’s adjusted completion percentage, and 19th in PFF’s deep passing completion percentage. And while Wentz was only a rookie, the paradigm has shifted in the NFL and fantasy wherein there is much more expected now of rookie quarterbacks. You either have it or you don’t. Take Dak Prescott, who was PFF’s 10th-highest-graded QB last season, was sixth in PFF’s quarterback rating, 10th in PFF’s adjusted completion percentage, and 13th in PFF’s deep passing completion percentage.

Verdict: Sell. If I have Wentz, I’m selling now while he still has the perception of potential. He’s currently on pace for 24 passing touchdowns this year but ideally would make a bigger stride in his sophomore season. Additionally, with the number of quality quarterbacks in the NFL and fantasy, you can do better than Wentz.

Theo Riddick, RB, Detroit Lions

(ADP: 33)

Riddick has always been a tricky player to assess when it comes to dynasty. He’s certainly not a traditional running back, amassing 178 carries over his entire four-plus year career. His value is almost entirely tied to the passing game, where he actually has more career receptions (185) than carries. But he’s done quite well in that role, finishing as a top-30 running back in PPR leagues the last two seasons. 2015 has been his peak to date, when he totaled 80 receptions for almost 700 yards. Those 80 receptions were actually good for 18th among all pass-catchers that season, and he ranked first in yards per route run among all running backs at 2.32. Heading into 2016, Riddick was poised to replicate his excellent 2015 before injuries cost him six games. He was averaging the same five catches per game but was also getting more involved with the running game, thanks to an injury suffered by teammate Ameer Abdullah. Riddick totaled 93 rushes (more than double his previous career-high of 45) and posted another career-high with 3.9 yards per carry.

This season, Riddick's usage is trending in the wrong direction, for two reasons. First, he has seen just 65 passing routes, good for 17th out of 21 qualifying running backs who have seen at least 15 targets. As the Lions have been winning, the passing game isn’t being utilized nearly as much as if the Lions were losing. Not only are they 3-1, but they are also fifth in average time of possession this season, controlling the ball 54 percent of the time. Second, the Lions have a healthy Abdullah handling most of the rushing duties, taking 66 rushes out of the Lions’ 109 on the season. Riddick’s usage decline was never more apparent than in Week 4 where he was in for just 18 snaps.

Verdict: Hold. There’s no doubt Riddick is having a down year so far, seeing only 3.5 receptions per game as opposed to his usual five. But his role in Detroit is secure and his cap number is such that he should remain in that role for the foreseeable future. His current ADP as a RB 3/4 on your (PPR) dynasty team should remain.

Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

(ADP: 13)

If you’ve held on to Martin this long in dynasty leagues, it’s been quite the roller coaster. From his breakout rookie season that saw him gain over 1,900 total yards and 12 touchdowns in 2012 to an injury-riddled second and third seasons then a bounceback RB1 season in 2015 including 1,400 rushing yards, Martin’s value has run the full gamut. At times last season, he look like a bona fide bell cow in Tampa, but injuries and poor play cut it short by eight games. Martin was then suspended for the first three games of 2017 and is set to make his debut this week. So, what do we do with him now?

For starters, he’s a 28-year-old running back with an injury history, missing 23 games out of a possible 80 over his five-year career. He’s coming off a season that saw him average just 2.9 yards per carry, a career-low, with only two rushes of more than 15 yards — he had 19 such rushes the year before. Now, he was dealing with a fairly severe hamstring strain that cost him several games but whether the decline in production was due to injury or just poor play, it’s not good. The best-case scenario is the injury sapped his burst and he will spend 2017 rebounding from that while the worst case is he’s lost a step for good. He’s also now in the league’s dog house for testing positive for a banned substance, making him eligible for stricter penalties should he incur another infraction.

Verdict: Sell. Value is always in the eye of the beholder. Some will expect Martin to bounce back and be the same back that ran for 1,400 yards as Tampa’s bell-cow running back. However, there are just too many red flags to justify Martin’s ADP. I would sell while you still can.

Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals

(ADP: 24)

There’s always those players that the fantasy community writes off but they just keep coming back, like an athletic zombie. Players like Jason Witten and Antonio Gates who, while they’ve lost a step, still produce. Fitzgerald is one of these players and continues to be written off, especially by the age-sensitive dynasty crowd.

To be fair, Fitzgerald did have a lull in production that lasted a few seasons. After five straight seasons with 1,000 receiving yards (three of which were over 1,400), Fitzgerald failed to top 82 catches or 1,000 yards between the 2012 and 2014 seasons. But the Cardinals, and Fitzgerald, were going through a transition from head coach Ken Whisenhunt to Bruce Arians. Arians altered Fitzgerald’s role from a more vertical threat to a possession receiver. So while he kept throwing to Fitzgerald, it just wasn’t on as many deep balls which meant less difficult targets starting in 2013:

The transition to shorter passes showed. Prior to Arians’ arrival, Fitzgerald topped 12.5 yards per reception seven times in nine seasons; he hasn’t hit that number once in five years under the current coach. Despite that, he’s had two seasons of 100-plus receptions, in his age-32 and 33 seasons no less — a feat he accomplished only twice in his previous 10 seasons. He’s well on his way again with 26 catches over the first four games of the season. Of course, it helps to see an average of 10 targets per game. If he keeps that pace, it’ll be the most targets he’s seen in a season since 2010.

Verdict: Buy. Despite his age, Fitzgerald isn’t slowing down. His targets have increased every year since 2014 and there is yet to be another Cardinals receiver to challenge him for top billing. Dynasty teams have windows of two to three years anyway and Fitzgerald is a good value.

Jimmy Graham, TE, Seattle Seahawks

(ADP: 5)

Few players got off to a hotter start to their career than Graham. A unique skill set allowed him to be one of the most productive tight ends (real and fantasy) in NFL history. He averaged 1,099 yards and 11 touchdowns 2011-2014, solidifying himself as the best tight end this side of Rob Gronkowski.

Then a surprising trade sent him to Seattle. He went from playing with the team that passed the most (41 attempts per game) in 2014 to the team that passed the least in 2015 (28). Couple that with a torn patellar ligament in 2015, and Graham’s fantasy prospects were quickly derailed as he finished with 605 yards and two touchdowns, the lowest total of his career.

But it appears all Graham needed was time. Not only did he play in all 16 games for the first time in two years in 2016 but Seattle, without then-retired running back Marshawn Lynch, started passing more — like 25 percent more, up to 35 attempts per game. And even though Graham lines up in the slot much less now (30.4 percent in 2016 compared to 45 percent his last year in New Orleans), he is a still a big part of the passing game, seeing nearly 100 targets last year. He turned that attention into 65 receptions for 923 yards and six touchdowns, and another top-five fantasy finish at the position, his fifth such season over his seven-season career.

Verdict: Buy. After a slow first two weeks of the season, Graham has picked it up over the last two with 11 catches for 133 yards. And even though Graham is 30, I would trust him more than Greg Olsen (two years older) or Jordan Reed (a walking injury report), both of whom are currently ranked ahead of him. With only one down year to his name, Graham deserves to be treated as a top-three dynasty tight end.