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Best DFS stacks to play in Week 17

Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) rolls out to throw against Pittsburgh Steelers outside linebacker Alex Highsmith (56) during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

This analysis of DFS main-slate stacks is a variation of the methodology used in analyses on the single-game DraftKings showdown slates. It uses the combination of current projections, historical game results and similarity algorithms to simulate an upcoming game by looking back at the most similar historical matchups.

I’m taking the same outline and applying it instead to the DFS main slate by projecting the likelihood each team’s QB-WR, RB-DST, QB-WR-TE, QB-RB-WR stacks will be the highest-scoring of the slate. These are some of the most popular stack combinations employed in DFS strategy.

The information below is entirely in the form of plots and tables. If you’d like additional information and analysis on the same methodology broken out by position, please refer to the positional piece that also comes out every week.

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METHODOLOGY

For each game on the DFS Sunday main slate, I looked through thousands of NFL matchups from 2014-2021 and found the closest analogies according to the following parameters: betting spread, over/under, average fantasy points scoring for the top-ranked positional players of both rosters (QB1, RB1, WR1, TE1).

Once I get the 75 most similar matchups for each upcoming game, I simulate the main slate 10,000 times by randomly choosing one of the 75 matchups for each game and then find the highest-scoring QB-WR, RB-DST, QB-WR-TE and QB-RB-WR stacks on the simulated slate.

Every match of historical and current games is not perfect, but the simulation allows us to smooth out the bumps and get a strong picture of how a slate of similar games would have played out.

The last step is totaling up the number of times a particular team shows up as the top stack for each of the three stacks projected and then dividing that number by the total simulations. That number is what I call “highest scoring %” on the y-axis of the plots below labeled by team logo. Below the plots by team, I join the highest projected players that make up the stacks for that team and list their projected fantasy points and salaries for DraftKings and FanDuel.

HOW TO VIEW THE PLOTS

Each plot below has every team on the main slate positioned by the combined salary of the stack and the percentage of time that team’s stack was the highest scorer in the simulations.

One way to look at them is that anything above the dashed horizontal line is a good scoring stack, and anything to the right of the dashed vertical line is a high-priced stack. You should pay most attention to the upper-right (high-scoring and high-priced) and upper-left (high-scoring and low-priced) quadrants. Ideally, you’ll find something in the upper-left that you’re confident in, but often paying up and moving into the upper-right can be beneficial.

QUARTERBACK/WIDE RECEIVER STACK

QB/WR players

Team Highest % Player Pos DK Fpts DK Salary FD Fpts FD Salary
KC 9.6 Patrick Mahomes QB 23.7 7,800 22.0 8,500
KC 9.6 Tyreek Hill WR 21.6 8,300 16.9 8,200
BLT 8.0 Tyler Huntley QB 18.9 5,600 17.8 7,500
BLT 8.0 Marquise Brown WR 13.2 5,900 10.3 6,300
DAL 7.4 Dak Prescott QB 23.6 6,700 21.8 7,400
DAL 7.4 CeeDee Lamb WR 16.3 7,100 12.9 7,200
LAC 6.4 Justin Herbert QB 23.5 6,800 21.9 8,200
LAC 6.4 Keenan Allen WR 16.0 7,500 12.2 7,300
TB 6.3 Tom Brady QB 26.5 7,600 24.5 8,300
TB 6.3 Antonio Brown WR 22.0 6,100 17.1 8,500
NE 5.9 Mac Jones QB 19.9 5,300 18.8 6,800
NE 5.9 Jakobi Meyers WR 13.3 5,100 10.5 5,800
ARZ 5.7 Kyler Murray QB 22.3 7,300 20.9 8,200
ARZ 5.7 A.J. Green WR 12.8 5,300 10.2 5,600
SF 4.7 Trey Lance QB 20.0 4,800 19.0 6,400
SF 4.7 Deebo Samuel WR 16.7 8,700 13.1 9,000
PHI 4.7 Jalen Hurts QB 23.1 6,600 21.6 7,900
PHI 4.7 DeVonta Smith WR 14.2 6,300 11.3 6,100
DEN 3.5 Drew Lock QB 15.9 5,100 15.0 6,500
DEN 3.5 Courtland Sutton WR 12.1 4,500 9.6 5,300
NYG 3.5 Mike Glennon QB 12.2 5,000 11.6 6,200
NYG 3.5 Kenny Golladay WR 12.1 5,100 9.9 5,500
LA 3.5 Matthew Stafford QB 21.0 7,100 19.5 7,600
LA 3.5 Cooper Kupp WR 25.0 9,500 19.1 10,200
IND 3.4 Carson Wentz QB 16.0 5,700 15.1 7,000
IND 3.4 Michael Pittman Jr. WR 12.7 5,800 10.0 6,500
CIN 3.1 Joe Burrow QB 20.4 6,900 18.9 7,700
CIN 3.1 Ja'Marr Chase WR 18.1 7,600 14.3 7,600
BUF 3.0 Josh Allen QB 26.5 8,000 25.0 8,800
BUF 3.0 Stefon Diggs WR 19.4 7,900 15.3 8,000
NO 3.0 Taysom Hill QB 19.9 6,000 18.8 7,700
NO 3.0 Marquez Callaway WR 10.9 4,600 8.8 5,700
SEA 2.7 Russell Wilson QB 21.6 6,200 20.4 7,300
SEA 2.7 D.K. Metcalf WR 16.6 6,500 13.4 6,600
LV 2.6 Derek Carr QB 17.9 5,800 16.6 6,900
LV 2.6 Hunter Renfrow WR 14.5 6,500 11.1 6,900
WAS 2.0 Taylor Heinicke QB 17.4 5,300 16.3 6,900
WAS 2.0 Terry McLaurin WR 16.0 6,200 12.5 7,000
MIA 1.9 Tua Tagovailoa QB 16.7 5,800 15.8 6,700
MIA 1.9 Jaylen Waddle WR 14.0 6,700 10.7 7,000
HST 1.8 Davis Mills QB 16.0 5,500 14.9 6,400
HST 1.8 Brandin Cooks WR 14.8 6,000 11.5 6,500
DET 1.6 Jared Goff QB 10.3 5,400 9.9 6,700
DET 1.6 Amon-Ra St. Brown WR 14.2 6,000 10.7 6,900
ATL 1.5 Matt Ryan QB 16.3 5,300 15.2 6,600
ATL 1.5 Russell Gage WR 11.7 5,600 9.0 6,100
JAX 1.4 Trevor Lawrence QB 15.6 5,000 14.6 6,500
JAX 1.4 Marvin Jones Jr. WR 10.6 4,400 8.5 5,700
CHI 1.4 Justin Fields QB 17.5 5,500 16.6 7,000
CHI 1.4 Darnell Mooney WR 12.2 5,500 9.7 6,000
TEN 1.2 Ryan Tannehill QB 18.5 5,900 17.6 7,300
TEN 1.2 A.J. Brown WR 17.5 7,200 13.9 7,500
CAR 1.1 Sam Darnold QB 15.1 5,000 14.2 6,600
CAR 1.1 D.J. Moore WR 14.7 5,600 11.5 6,400
NYJ 1.0 Zach Wilson QB 14.4 5,400 13.5 6,500
NYJ 1.0 Braxton Berrios WR 7.8 3,700 5.9 5,300

RUNNING BACK/DST

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