The 2021 fantasy football season rolls on with Week 15. Trends are becoming clear, but so is confidence in the chalk plays each week in DFS. Using PFF metrics, we can exploit the projected rostership numbers to identify value for DFS lineups.
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This report helps identify pivot players to target if you are looking to avoid highly rostered players in GPP tournaments. Optimizing cost and rostership percentage is what creates strong yet unique lineups crucial to winning large-field tournaments.
DraftKings Top 20 Players in Projected Rostership
FanDuel Top 20 Players in Projected Rostership
|Darrell Henderson Jr.||LAR||SEA||RB||6800||10.1|
Pivot Plays for Week 15
There is warranted concern for Rodger this week after the talk of potential surgery on his injured toe. But if Rodgers is active and starting, he’s still easily worth a top-three salary. He was dealing with this injury last week and still threw for 341 yards and four touchdowns.
Highest passer rating | Week 14:
???? Aaron Rodgers – 141.1
♦️ Patrick Mahomes – 139.2
⚡️ Justin Herbert – 133.1
???? Joe Burrow – 125.6 pic.twitter.com/DyGP7C1296
— PFF (@PFF) December 13, 2021
Lamar Jackson is also questionable for this game, but it sounds like he'll suit up. Even if he doesn’t, Tyler Huntley is more likely to throw the ball than run it relative to Jackson. Despite the Ravens’ low-scoring games recently, their defense has allowed two passing touchdowns in three of their last five contests. It's safe to fire Rodgers up here.
Wilson shook off his rust and is back to slinging — he's thrown for at least 231 yards and two touchdowns in three straight games. His 74.0 passing grade is eighth-best among quarterbacks during this period. Mr. Unlimited is back… sort of. We still haven’t seen the type of upside he showed in Week 1, partially because D.K. Metcalf seems to have lost his rhythm lately. If they reconnect, watch out.
The Seahawks need everything to go right this week against the Los Angeles Rams. Wilson was knocked out with the hand injury the last time these teams played. This time around, the Rams are favored by 4.5 points — that should create a positive game script for Wilson and the Seahawks' passing attack.
Gordon has been playing really well for the Broncos this year even though so many fans are calling for Javonte Williams to take the lead. The reason to take Gordon this week is arbitrage due to Williams’ slightly higher salary on DraftKings. Last week, Gordon ripped off 111 yards rushing and two touchdowns on 24 attempts. He has quietly put up the sixth-best rushing grade among backs with at least 100 carries this year.
Send him into this week’s matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals, even if it looks bad on paper. Surprisingly, the Bengals land at eighth in rate of rushing attempts that go for touchdowns, and their nine rushing touchdowns allowed is tied for 13th in the league. The Broncos passing attack hasn’t been getting things done lately, so expect heavy usage of both Denver backs.
Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams are an elite duo pic.twitter.com/XLYMPjiQpo
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) December 13, 2021
Johnson provides some fantasy intrigue this week as a cheaper pivot away from Michael Carter. It's a slightly tough sell considering the state of the Houston Texans rushing game, but let’s peel things back a bit. First, it was already announced that Rex Burkhead is going to miss this game just as Johnson returns from the covid/IR list. Before hitting IR Johnson had handled at least 13 opportunities in two straight games.
If Johnson sees 12-13 rushing attempts and 4-5 targets, that is plenty of opportunity to exploit a Jacksonville Jaguars defense that has allowed a whopping 111 rush yards per game and five rushing touchdowns over the last five weeks. Opposing running backs also averaged seven targets per game. Johnson is in a solid spot for a budget back.
Lineup builders looking for a pivot away from DeVante Parker might want to look Collins' way. The rookie caught five of nine targets last week for 69 yards, showing a connection with fellow rookie quarterback Davis Mills. It’s clear that Mills is more likely to air the ball out than Tyrod Taylor. That's a positive development, on top of the fact that Collins' snap count has slowly increased throughout the season — he hasn’t played fewer than 62% of the teams’ offensive snaps since Week 11.
The Texans pass defense has allowed more than 150 yards to wide receivers in eight of their 13 matchups this season. Collins will likely see coverage from Tyson Campbell, who gives up a team-leading 0.3 fantasy points per route and 1.53 yards per route. Mills could be looking Collins’ way often in this contest.
The tight end position is a tough nut to crack from a rostership perspective. Gesicki sticks out this week as a player who probably should be one of the top three plays, especially at his reduced price tag. The Dolphins are coming off their bye week and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has been running pure lately. Prior to the bye, Gesicki racked up 11 targets against the Giants, catching seven for 46 yards.
The matchup gets easier this week as the Dolphins take on the hapless New York Jets at home. On the year, the Jets have given up the seventh-most points to opposing tight ends and an average of 5.8 receptions and 73.3 yards per game over their last four games. The Dolphins are looking to make a last-chance playoff push, and that starts with cruising over the Jets in Week 15. Gesicki should be in line for a ton of targets, especially if Jaylen Waddle misses the game after a trip to the covid/IR list.