News & Analysis

Week 6 DFS fades and players to avoid

By Tyler Loechner
Oct 12, 2017

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Doug Martin (22) runs against the Atlanta Falcons during the first quarter of an NFL football game Sunday, Dec. 6, 2015, in Tampa, Fla. (AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)

Choosing the right players in fantasy football is just as important as not choosing the wrong players. That’s where this article comes in handy. Each week, I go over a bunch of players that I’ll be fading in DFS for a variety of reasons.

Last week’s list was largely a success (meaning most of the players mentioned completely flopped). We’ll go for a similar hit rate in Week 6. Here are a handful of players I’ll be fading in Week 6.

Note: There’s always a case to be made for playing any player in tournaments. This list of “fades” is cash game focused, but most of these players can be avoided in tournaments as well. I’ll make note of players I think could be viable contrarian tournament picks, though.

(It’s PFF Fantasy’s Free Content Week. Keep up with all the offerings here.)

Quarterbacks

Brian Hoyer, San Francisco 49ers

Hoyer is often a popular cash-game pick because he’s so cheap and he’s actually not terrible, but the matchup against the Redskins is less than ideal. Josh Norman is sidelined, but this is still a team that has given up just 937 yards and five passing scores through four games. Hoyer also costs a season-high $5,100 on DraftKings this week.

Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles

Wentz has been phenomenal, but I can’t trust him on a short week as a Thursday road underdog against the Panthers, who have given up the ninth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks so far this year.

Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams

This one might be obvious, but it needs to be said. There are very few quarterbacks you can trust against the Jaguars this year. Goff — despite the massive jump he’s taken in Year 2 — is not one of those quarterbacks, especially at $7,500 on FanDuel.

Running back

Wayne Gallman and Orleans Darkwa, New York Giants

Gallman tallied 16 touches and Darkwa had nine (and a score) in Week 5, and some might be tempted to roll with these players in Week 6 because New York now has no passing attack. But the Broncos have given up the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs this year, yielding just 2.4 YPC while surrendered no rushing touchdowns.

Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers

He’s obviously a fade if Ty Montgomery plays, but even if Montgomery sits, I’m not sure I’ll be chasing Jones’ points. He draws the Vikings in Week 6, who have given up just one rushing score this year and have help opposing backfields to under 100 yards in every game so far. Plus, he’s already tied for the 11th-most-expensive running back on FanDuel and 13th-priciest on DraftKings.

Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Martin looked strong in his 2017 debut, averaging 5.7 YPC and finding the end zone against the Patriots in Week 5. It’ll be tougher sledding this week against the Cardinals, the fourth-toughest matchup for running backs. Running backs have gained just 3.3 YPC against Arizona so far this year.

Lamar Miller, Houston Texans

You might think the matchup with the Browns will be a cakewalk, but Cleveland has actually been stout against running backs, holding opposing rushers to just 2.5 YPC. Miller is worth a shot in GPPs thanks to Deshaun Watson leading this team to so many points, but I’m not trusting him in cash — especially on FanDuel, where he’s costlier relative to his peers.

Jay Ajayi, Miami Dolphins

Ajayi is averaging just 3.4 YPC and has yet to find the end zone. At first glance, the Week 6 matchup with the Falcons doesn’t appear awful, but the Dolphins are 11.5-point road underdogs, and it’s nearly impossible to envision a game script that favors Ajayi, especially when factoring in the fact he’s only good for 1-2 receptions each week.

Wide receivers

Sammy Watkins, Los Angeles Rams

The Jaguars haven’t given up a touchdown to a receiver since Week 1, and Watkins has just one catch for 17 yards over the past two weeks combined.

Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos

Thomas should draw a healthy amount of Janoris Jenkins, which won’t be good for his fantasy value. This game has the second-lowest over/under of the week (40.5), and the Giants have given up just two scores to enemy wideouts on the year.

All Chicago Bears wide receivers

All of them seem like value plays (they all cost $4,000 or less on DraftKings), but none of them can be trusted. It’s a trap — especially against the Ravens, who have given up the sixth-fewest fantasy points to the position so far this year.

Sterling Shepard or Roger Lewis, New York Giants

Shepard (if he plays) or Lewis might feel like volume-based value plays, but this is not the week to go to them. They are playing the Broncos in Denver.

Pierre Garcon, San Francisco 49ers

The Redskins have given up just one passing touchdown to opposing receivers — and that came during the first week of the season.

Tight ends

Jordan Reed, Washington Redskins

Believe it or not, but the 49ers have been fantastic against tight ends so far this year, giving up a combined 14-107-0 to the position through five weeks despite facing a handful of elite tight ends (Greg Olsen and Jimmy Graham). Reed played just 28 percent of Washington’s snaps in Week 4, and while he has had plenty of time to recover, the possibility of a lingering injury, a high price tag (third-most-expensive on both sites), and the matchup are enough for me to avoid him in cash.

Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings

The quarterback carousel in Minnesota makes Rudolph difficult to trust as is, but he also has a tough Week 6 draw against the Packers, who have given up the second-fewest points to the position this year.

Jared Cook, Oakland Raiders

Cook is the seventh-most-expensive on FanDuel and the 10th-most-expensive on DraftKings, and that’s just a bit too much for a tight end who is playing with a backup quarterback against the team (the Chargers) that has given up the third-fewest fantasy points to the position. Too many red flags here.

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