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Week 2 DFS fades and contrarian plays

Aug 16, 2018; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) throws a pass against the Philadelphia Eagles during the first quarter at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stew Milne-USA TODAY Sports

This season at PFF, we’re offering projected ownership percentages for Elite subscribers. You can find them for DraftKings here and for FanDuel here.

Today, and every Saturday during the season, I’m going to be referencing these ownership percentages to discuss players we should be fading for DFS tournaments.

However, there’s an important caveat here: Sometimes these players will be an outright fade – their ownership is too high to warrant playing them at all. Sometimes these players will only be a partial fade – their ownership is too high to warrant playing them in large-field tournaments (such as DraftKings’ Millionaire Maker or FanDuel Sunday Millions) but they’re still a good enough play on paper that I might not be fading them in smaller-field (or higher stakes) tournaments. I’ll note the differences in the analysis below.

I’ll also offer potential pivot- or leverage-plays below each strategy-related fade, and, at the end of the article a few lower-owned options I think should be higher-owned than from what we’re expecting.

For a more in-depth explanation on why ownership percentages matter and what a contrarian approach entails, you can read my primer here.

Straight fades

Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots

Brady, at only $6,500 on DraftKings (sixth-highest-priced quarterback), is what we in the industry would call a “value trap.” He looks like a value because he’s $1,000 cheaper this week than his 2017 average but he’s still a poor value relative to matchup. Last year, opposing quarterbacks averaged just 10.1 fantasy points per game when playing in Jacksonville.

Jamaal Williams, RB, Green Bay Packers

Only once since the start of last season did a team’s running backs combine to hit 100 rushing yards against Minnesota. Running backs average just 3.56 yards per carry against them over this span, while Williams has averaged just 3.59 yards per carry himself. Even with a banged-up Aaron Rodgers and the possibility of Green Bay leaning heavier on the run to make up for that, Williams isn’t in play for me this week.

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