- Nico Collins is the best bet among those being drafted outside the top five: Collins has been operating at a WR1 level for two years and now has a shot to finish as the WR1 overall across an entire healthy season.
- Tetairoa McMillan is the best rookie bet to make to be the WR1 in 2025: Even if McMillan doesn’t finish as the overall WR1, he stands out as a massive value because of his potential and where he’s being drafted.
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Estimated Reading Time: 12 minutes
Smilar to the running back position, elite fantasy football options at wide receiver are often drafted within the first five players at their positional ADP. However, as evidenced by Cooper Kupp in 2021, and even CeeDee Lamb in 2023 (WR6 in ADP), someone else can emerge, which is going to be the emphasis of this article as we look beyond the top five, and then the top 10, wide receivers drafted to find the true darkhorse WR1 candidates for 2025.
Understanding all that makes up a fantasy WR1 is going to be important, so let’s start by looking back at past seasons to determine the recipe for success that led them to fantasy glory.
| Season | WR1 | Total PPR Points | PPR PPG | PPG Rank | ADP |
| 2024 | Ja'Marr Chase | 377.4 | 23.6 | WR1 | WR3 |
| 2023 | CeeDee Lamb | 369.7 | 23.1 | WR2 | WR6 |
| 2022 | Justin Jefferson | 368.9 | 21.7 | WR1 | WR1 |
| 2021 | Cooper Kupp | 440.3 | 25.9 | WR1 | WR16 |
| 2020 | Davante Adams | 358.4 | 25.6 | WR1 | WR2 |
| 2019 | Michael Thomas | 374.4 | 23.4 | WR1 | WR4 |
| 2018 | DeAndre Hopkins | 332.8 | 20.8 | WR3 | WR2 |
- High-end consistency is king for the top overall fantasy wide receivers. Delivering more than 20 PPR points per game while staying healthy for a full season allowed these WR1s to separate themselves.
- Only Davante Adams in 2020 missed games and still finished as the WR1, but he did so with unreal touchdown numbers (18).
- DeAndre Hopkins is the last wide receiver to repeat as the overall WR1 (2017 and 2018).
- Kupp and Lamb were both drafted outside the top five at the position the year of their WR1 season, but that ADP changed to WR2 for Kupp in 2022 and WR1 for Lamb in 2024.
| Season | WR1 | Targets | Receptions | Receiving Yards | Receiving TDs |
| 2024 | Ja'Marr Chase | 171 | 127 | 1,708 | 17 |
| 2023 | CeeDee Lamb | 179 | 135 | 1,749 | 12 |
| 2022 | Justin Jefferson | 176 | 128 | 1,809 | 8 |
| 2021 | Cooper Kupp | 189 | 145 | 1,947 | 16 |
| 2020 | Davante Adams | 146 | 115 | 1,374 | 18 |
| 2019 | Michael Thomas | 180 | 149 | 1,725 | 9 |
| 2018 | DeAndre Hopkins | 159 | 115 | 1,572 | 11 |
- The minimum requirement for receiving touchdowns is about 0.5 per game, though Chase, Adams and Kupp came close to or exceeded one per game.
- The more difficult threshold to reach is 115 receptions, which only Chase (127) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (115) accomplished last season. This will be key, especially in PPR leagues.
- To get the receptions, the targets have to be there. Every one of these receivers averaged at least 10 targets per game.
- Each past WR1 also finished among the top five in the NFL in receiving yards, most of the time leading the league.
| Season | WR1 | Receiving Grade vs. Man (WR Rank) | Yards per Route Run | Target Rate |
| 2024 | Ja'Marr Chase | 74.0 (42nd) | 2.41 | 24.1% |
| 2023 | CeeDee Lamb | 94.1 (1st) | 2.78 | 28.5% |
| 2022 | Justin Jefferson | 88.3 (7th) | 2.62 | 25.5% |
| 2021 | Cooper Kupp | 93.9 (1st) | 3.12 | 30.2% |
| 2020 | Davante Adams | 94.9 (1st) | 2.96 | 31.5% |
| 2019 | Michael Thomas | 91.0 (2nd) | 2.88 | 30.0% |
| 2018 | DeAndre Hopkins | 91.5 (2nd) | 2.51 | 25.4% |
- Over the past seven seasons, each PPR WR1 finished in the top 10 in PFF receiving grade versus man coverage, except for Chase, who surprisingly didn’t come close to that mark. At the same time, there is always an outlier.
- Each player also hit a minimum of 2.10 yards per route run on a target rate of at least 24%.
- To hit that target rate, the competition for targets among the team’s other receiving options often needs to be minimal.
- Cooper Kupp in 2021 was the only past WR1 on this list to have a teammate with a higher ADP than him at the time (Robert Woods). The others didn’t have another wide receiver already on their team drafted among the top 25 at the position that season.
| Season | Team | Offensive Scoring Rank | Team Pass Rate Rank | QB1 Passing Grade Rank | Team Passing Yards |
| 2024 | Bengals | T-8th | 2nd | 1st | 4,918 |
| 2023 | Cowboys | 1st | 13th | 3rd | 4,663 |
| 2022 | Vikings | 8th | 5th | 9th | 4,818 |
| 2021 | Rams | 5th | 16th | 9th | 4,893 |
| 2020 | Packers | 5th | 25th | 1st | 4,299 |
| 2019 | Saints | 3rd | 19th | 2nd | 4,431 |
| 2018 | Texans | 4th | 19th | 10th | 4,165 |
- Another key data point these past WR1s shared was that they all came from an offense with one of the 10 highest-graded quarterbacks.
- Each of those passers threw for more than 4,000 yards, as well — a mark that three quarterbacks hit in 2024.
- These offenses were all productive in scoring, with only the 2022 Minnesota Vikings and the 2024 Cincinnati Bengals finishing outside the top five in the league in offensive scoring.
- Keep in mind that the WR1 doesn’t necessarily have to come from a team that is passing the ball at an above-average rate. The main thing, as highlighted in the other points above, is that the team is at least funneling the large majority of the targets in one receiver’s direction.
With these criteria in mind, let’s take a look at which wide receivers going outside the top five in ADP at their position make the best case for 2025’s darkhorse WR1.
Best shot: Nico Collins, Houston Texans
- Sleeper ADP: WR7
- Underdog ADP: WR6
- ESPN ADP: WR7
- Consensus ADP: WR7
Prior to his hamstring injury in 2024, which put him on the shelf from Week 6 until Week 11, Collins was the PPR WR2 overall. Even in the game where he was injured, he delivered 78 receiving yards and a touchdown on just five routes.
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