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Fantasy Football: Buying or selling ADP risers and fallers in 2023

2M9T5FT Washington Commanders running back Antonio Gibson (24) carries the ball during an NFL game against the Houston Texans on Sunday, November 20, 2022, in Houston. (AP Photo/Matt Patterson)

• Pass on New York Giants WR Parris Campbell: His ADP rose by nearly 40 spots in June, but it remains to be seen exactly what his role will be in the Giants' offense.

• Take another chance on Washington Commanders RB Antonio Gibson: While some fantasy managers have written Gibson off entirely after his 2022 season, his receiving upside is worth the draft pick.

• Lean into the Anthony Richardson hype: The rookie will almost certainly endure growing pains, but his dual-threat ability in a successful rushing attack makes his upside intriguing.

Estimated Reading Time: 13 minutes

The NFL free agency dust has settled, the draft is in the books and team training camps are right around the corner. There’s been no shortage of NFL news, either, causing some wide fluctuations in player fantasy football outlooks and average draft position (ADP) in best ball drafts through the offseason.

Here, we’ll take a look at five players who are being drafted earlier and four players who are being drafted later than they were a month ago, breaking down potential reasons for their ADP shift, as well as whether they’re worth drafting in fantasy football at their current value.

ADP comes courtesy of Underdog Fantasy and was derived from drafts conducted from June 1 through June 30.

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ADP Risers

WR Parris Campbell, New York Giants

  • Current ADP: 177.5
  • Previous ADP: 211.2

The Giants signed former second-round pick Parris Campbell this offseason to a one-year deal worth up to $6.7 million with incentives. And looking at New York's depth chart, it actually seems conceivable that he could function as the WR1 for Daniel Jones in 2023. Reports out of OTAs indicate that he has slotted in as the team’s WR3, as well as taken snaps out of the backfield amid running back Saquon Barkley’s absence. Drafters have caught onto the hype, with Campbell's average draft position jumping by almost 40 spots over the past month.

There is some potential for Campbell to garner volume this season, given the lack of competition through the rest of the depth chart. However, it will be an uphill battle for him to produce on a week-to-week basis. 2022 marked Campbell’s first full season of action in the NFL, having never exceeded seven games in any year prior due to a myriad of injuries. In that 2022 campaign, he earned a 61.2 PFF receiving grade and was targeted on just 14% of routes, from which he produced a career-low 0.98 yards per route run.

Campbell’s best shot at relevancy would come from earning the Giants' starting slot receiver role, particularly considering the departure of Richie James Jr., who led the team in snaps and targets from the slot in 2022. It just remains to be seen what that starting role will translate to in terms of fantasy production in an offense where not a single player was targeted on more than 23% of their routes run in Year 1 of the Brian Daboll era.

Verdict: Pass

RB Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings

  • Current ADP: 59.7
  • Previous ADP: 81.4

Vikings running back Alexander Mattison‘s average draft position soared throughout the month of June, thanks entirely to the departure of former teammate Dalvin Cook. The move to release the six-year veteran saved the Vikings $9 million in cap space, signaling that Mattison is “the guy” moving forward.

His ADP will only continue to climb from here, but it’s for good reason, as there is probably not a running back with a higher upside or more opportunity in what projects to be, once again, one of the league’s highest-scoring offenses.

In six career games played without Cook, Mattison has functioned as a workhorse, averaging just more than 23 touches for 115.5 scrimmage yards and 0.8 touchdowns per game. That translated to a whopping 20.4 fantasy points per game in PPR leagues, finishing as the RB8 or better in four of those six games.

Don’t overthink this one.

Verdict: Draft


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