In this series of articles, I’m looking at the fantasy football breakout potential for second-year wide receivers. One of the best ways to determine the range of outcomes and the probability of success for fantasy players is by comparing them to similar historical players.
In this analysis, I’ll compare Justin Jefferson to hundreds of receivers drafted since 2006 and project the likelihood of his breakout based on those who had the most similar size, college production, draft position and rookie metrics.
To read the articles on the other wide receivers from the 2020 draft class, click here.
The matching methodology is similar to what was used to focus on 2021 wide receiver and running back prospect comps, where I found the closest statistically comparable players using principal component analysis (PCA) and the euclidean distance between the players' components. I then gave each a “similarity” score based on percentile of distance.
The metrics for PCA are draft position, weight, market share of college receiving yards (CFB Yds MS), college yards per reception (CFB YPR), rookie yards per route run (Rook YPRR), rookie average depth of target (Rook aDOT), rookie PPR fantasy points per game (PPR Per) and top-24 fantasy weeks (Top-24). All college numbers are from players’ final seasons.
JUSTIN JEFFERSON COMPS