News & Analysis

Boom/bust report: Which Week 13 DFS options could pop?

BALTIMORE, MD - OCTOBER 26: Running Back Alex Collins #34 of the Baltimore Ravens carries the ball in the second quarter against the Miami Dolphins at M&T Bank Stadium on October 26, 2017 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)

Boom – to flourish vigorously
Bust – a worthless thing

Daily fantasy sports is a hyper-nuanced game. Theory can inform personal ownership stakes, or desirable plays can be identified and then analyzed for fit. I prefer the latter method. Which players do I want to be heavier on than the field, and which players do I want to be light on, or avoid entirely? The boom/bust report will feature players that fit the following descriptions: a boom is a high-priced stud with favorable conditions to hit a minimum of 3x DraftKings salary value, or a lower priced player with favorable conditions to hit 4x salary value. A bust is any player with unfavorable conditions to hit 3x value, regardless of salary.

(Prices and advice based on DraftKings salaries)

Booms

Brett Hundley ($5100, QB20) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers are a bottom-10 defense in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. They’ve allowed a passing touchdown in every game this season and have surrendered nearly 700 passing yards over the past two weeks. We saw growth from Hundley last week in a tightly contested matchup with the Steelers; he was the first passer to post a three-touchdown game against them this season en route to having the best fantasy output against their defense of any quarterback this season. Tampa Bay is a much softer opponent and Packers’ playoff hopes are hanging on by a thread at two games back with only five left to play.

Alex Collins ($4500, RB28) vs. Detroit Lions

Collins has a rushing touchdown and at least 18 touches in consecutive games. The Lions have allowed at least one rushing touchdown in six straight contests, including two multiple rushing touchdown games. Collins has also begun seeing some passing game work, with nine targets and six receptions over the past two games. Pat Thorman identifies Detroit as a reverse funnel this week and the game is expected to be close, so Baltimore shouldn’t have to abandon the run. Collins is a great bet for your RB2 slot this week and will free up salary elsewhere.

Davante Adams ($6500, WR12) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Adams excelled the past two weeks (13/208/1) despite facing tough matchups against the Ravens and the Steelers, who are both among the best six defenses in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. In fact, Adams was hot for most of November, ranking in the top-10 among wide receivers in receptions, yards, and touchdowns over the past three weeks. This week he gets Tampa Bay this week, a squad that ranks dead last in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. No defense has allowed more receptions or receiving yards to the position and they’ve given up 634 yards and four touchdowns to wide receivers just in the past two weeks.

Hunter Henry ($4700, TE7) vs. Cleveland Browns

Many will recommend Jared Cook here because of the absence of Oakland’s starting wide receivers, but I prefer Henry in a smash spot against the Browns and at a $700 salary discount versus the former. The Browns have allowed a touchdown to a tight end in four consecutive games and multiple receiving touchdowns overall in the three of the past four games. Philip Rivers has thrown seven touchdowns in the past three games and Henry is coming off of his best fantasy performance of the season on Thanksgiving. Henry will draw plenty of coverage from Derrick Kindred, who has the third-worst PFF player grade among starting safeties this week.

Busts

Matthew Stafford ($5800, QB5) vs. Baltimore Ravens

Stafford was red hot in November, throwing for nine touchdowns in four contests. December won’t welcome him with open arms, as the Ravens have surrendered just ten passing touchdowns all season but have 18 interceptions. They haven’t allowed a rushing touchdown to a quarterback either. In the past five games, the Ravens have only allowed two touchdowns to quarterbacks and the highest passing yardage output against them was 252 yards.

Tevin Coleman ($7000, RB8) vs. Minnesota Vikings

Coleman had his best game of the season in Week 12, scoring two touchdowns and rushing for 97 yards. However, Devonta Freeman returns this week and is expected to start. It’s possible that Coleman earned a larger role in the timeshare moving forward, but even if that proves to be the case, it’s difficult to justify the price when he has only eclipsed 10 carries one time in a game this season when both he and Freeman were active. The Vikings are also the top-ranked defense in fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs.

Marvin Jones ($6000, WR17) vs. Baltimore Ravens

Yes, I’m fading the Lions passing offense against the Ravens. Jones is in the same boat as Stafford here, as the Ravens have only allowed five touchdowns to wide receivers this season and as a result are a bottom-three matchup for pass catchers. Also, Jones should draw at least half of his looks against Jimmy Smith, a top-10 cornerback in PFF grade.

Jack Doyle ($5200, TE6) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Doyle’s salary rose $700 this week following a strong performance against the Titans in Week 12. His salary has topped $5k just one other time this season and he managed a line of 2/9/0 in that game. Jacksonville held Doyle to 44 yards and kept him out of the end-zone in the first matchup between these teams this season. My aversion to him this week is mostly salary-based, as he would have to turn in nearly 21 points to reach boom status, a threshold he’s only met one time this season.

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