DFS Data Dive: Hunting the best stacks of Week 11 | Fantasy Football News, Rankings and Projections | PFF

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DFS Data Dive: Hunting the best stacks of Week 11

London, England, United Kingdom; Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan (2) throws the ball before an NFL International Series Game against the New York Jets at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

This analysis of DFS main-slate stacks is a variation of the methodology used in analyses on the single-game DraftKings showdown slates. It uses the combination of current projections, historical game results and similarity algorithms to simulate an upcoming game by looking back at the most similar historical matchups.

I’m taking the same outline and applying it instead to the DFS main slate by projecting the likelihood each team’s QB-WR, RB-DST, QB-WR-TE, QB-RB-WR stacks will be the highest-scoring of the slate. These are some of the most popular stack combinations employed in DFS strategy.

The information below is entirely in the form of plots and tables. If you’d like additional information and analysis on the same methodology broken out by position, please refer to the positional piece that also comes out every week.

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METHODOLOGY

For each game on the DFS Sunday main slate, I looked through thousands of NFL matchups from 2014-2021 and found the closest analogies according to the following parameters: betting spread, over/under, average fantasy points scoring for the top-ranked positional players of both rosters (QB1, RB1, WR1, TE1).

Once I get the 75 most similar matchups for each upcoming game, I simulate the main slate 10,000 times by randomly choosing one of the 75 matchups for each game and then find the highest-scoring QB-WR, RB-DST, QB-WR-TE and QB-RB-WR stacks on the simulated slate.

Every match of historical and current games is not perfect, but the simulation allows us to smooth out the bumps and get a strong picture of how a slate of similar games would have played out.

The last step is totaling up the number of times a particular team shows up as the top stack for each of the three stacks projected and then dividing that number by the total simulations. That number is what I call “highest scoring %” on the y-axis of the plots below labeled by team logo. Below the plots by team, I join the highest projected players that make up the stacks for that team and list their projected fantasy points and salaries for DraftKings and FanDuel.

HOW TO VIEW THE PLOTS

Each plot below has every team on the main slate positioned by the combined salary of the stack and the percentage of time that team’s stack was the highest scorer in the simulations.

One way to look at them is that anything above the dashed horizontal line is a good scoring stack, and anything to the right of the dashed vertical line is a high-priced stack. You should pay most attention to the upper-right (high-scoring and high-priced) and upper-left (high-scoring and low-priced) quadrants. Ideally, you’ll find something in the upper-left that you’re confident in, but often paying up and moving into the upper-right can be beneficial.

QUARTERBACK/WIDE RECEIVER STACK

QB/WR players

Team Highest % Player Pos DK Fpts DK Salary FD Fpts FD Salary
KC 12.6 Patrick Mahomes QB 23.4 7,600 21.8 8,300
KC 12.6 Tyreek Hill WR 21.3 8,200 16.7 8,500
DAL 7.9 Dak Prescott QB 21.1 7,200 19.5 8,400
DAL 7.9 CeeDee Lamb WR 15.0 7,600 11.9 8,000
LV 7.8 Derek Carr QB 20.4 5,900 19.0 7,200
LV 7.8 Hunter Renfrow WR 14.0 5,800 10.9 6,100
BLT 6.2 Lamar Jackson QB 25.4 8,000 23.8 8,400
BLT 6.2 Marquise Brown WR 13.8 7,100 11.0 7,300
BUF 5.7 Josh Allen QB 25.3 8,100 23.7 8,800
BUF 5.7 Stefon Diggs WR 19.0 7,900 14.9 8,100
MIA 5.6 Tua Tagovailoa QB 18.1 5,500 17.1 7,000
MIA 5.6 Jaylen Waddle WR 12.7 5,600 9.9 6,700
CIN 5.1 Joe Burrow QB 23.0 6,600 21.1 7,400
CIN 5.1 Ja'Marr Chase WR 20.6 7,200 16.3 7,700
NO 4.6 Trevor Siemian QB 17.6 5,300 16.1 7,000
NO 4.6 Marquez Callaway WR 9.1 5,100 7.4 5,800
GB 4.5 Aaron Rodgers QB 23.2 7,000 21.7 7,700
GB 4.5 Davante Adams WR 22.8 8,400 17.5 8,400
PHI 4.1 Jalen Hurts QB 19.6 6,800 18.5 7,700
PHI 4.1 DeVonta Smith WR 14.2 6,400 11.2 6,600
JAX 4.0 Trevor Lawrence QB 17.0 5,200 15.9 6,500
JAX 4.0 Marvin Jones Jr. WR 12.4 5,200 9.9 5,700
ARZ 4.0 Kyler Murray QB 22.6 7,900 21.3 8,200
ARZ 4.0 DeAndre Hopkins WR 13.4 6,500 10.6 7,100
CAR 3.4 Cam Newton QB 20.0 5,100 18.8 7,500
CAR 3.4 D.J. Moore WR 17.9 5,900 14.0 6,700
DET 3.4 Jared Goff QB 12.5 5,100 11.7 6,400
DET 3.4 Kalif Raymond WR 9.6 5,000 7.7 5,300
MIN 3.3 Kirk Cousins QB 18.7 6,100 17.3 7,400
MIN 3.3 Justin Jefferson WR 17.8 8,100 14.0 7,900
NYJ 3.2 Joe Flacco QB 14.6 4,600 13.7 6,300
NYJ 3.2 Corey Davis WR 12.1 5,000 9.7 6,400
CLV 3.0 Baker Mayfield QB 19.9 5,400 18.9 6,800
CLV 3.0 Jarvis Landry WR 13.7 5,100 11.0 6,300
SF 2.9 Jimmy Garoppolo QB 17.1 5,600 15.9 7,100
SF 2.9 Deebo Samuel WR 19.0 7,800 14.7 7,600
TEN 2.6 Ryan Tannehill QB 23.3 6,700 22.2 7,800
TEN 2.6 A.J. Brown WR 18.8 7,700 15.2 7,200
IND 2.5 Carson Wentz QB 15.3 5,500 14.3 6,900
IND 2.5 Michael Pittman Jr. WR 12.1 6,100 9.5 6,900
SEA 2.0 Russell Wilson QB 20.6 6,500 19.3 7,300
SEA 2.0 D.K. Metcalf WR 17.6 6,800 14.0 7,500
HST 1.4 Tyrod Taylor QB 15.8 5,000 14.8 6,600
HST 1.4 Brandin Cooks WR 13.6 6,000 10.6 6,600
CHI 1.2 Justin Fields QB 17.7 5,700 16.7 6,800
CHI 1.2 Darnell Mooney WR 12.9 5,200 10.1 6,000
WAS 0.9 Taylor Heinicke QB 17.3 5,300 16.1 6,700
WAS 0.9 Terry McLaurin WR 16.0 7,000 12.4 7,000

RUNNING BACK/DST

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