DFS Data Dive: Hunting the best stacks of Week 10 | Fantasy Football News, Rankings and Projections | PFF

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DFS Data Dive: Hunting the best stacks of Week 10

Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) calls a play in the second quarter against the New York Giants at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

This analysis of DFS main-slate stacks is a variation of the methodology used in analyses on the single-game DraftKings showdown slates. It uses the combination of current projections, historical game results and similarity algorithms to simulate an upcoming game by looking back at the most similar historical matchups.

I’m taking the same outline and applying it instead to the DFS main slate by projecting the likelihood each team’s QB-WR, RB-DST, QB-WR-TE, QB-RB-WR stacks will be the highest-scoring of the slate. These are some of the most popular stack combinations employed in DFS strategy.

The information below is entirely in the form of plots and tables. If you’d like additional information and analysis on the same methodology broken out by position, please refer to the positional piece that also comes out every week.

METHODOLOGY

For each game on the DFS Sunday main slate, I looked through thousands of NFL matchups from 2014-2021 and found the closest analogies according to the following parameters: betting spread, over/under, average fantasy points scoring for the top-ranked positional players of both rosters (QB1, RB1, WR1, TE1).

Once I get the 75 most similar matchups for each upcoming game, I simulate the main slate 10,000 times by randomly choosing one of the 75 matchups for each game and then find the highest-scoring QB-WR, RB-DST, QB-WR-TE and QB-RB-WR stacks on the simulated slate.

Every match of historical and current games is not perfect, but the simulation allows us to smooth out the bumps and get a strong picture of how a slate of similar games would have played out.

The last step is totaling up the number of times a particular team shows up as the top stack for each of the three stacks projected and then dividing that number by the total simulations. That number is what I call “highest scoring %” on the y-axis of the plots below labeled by team logo. Below the plots by team, I join the highest projected players that make up the stacks for that team and list their projected fantasy points and salaries for DraftKings and FanDuel.

HOW TO VIEW THE PLOTS

Each plot below has every team on the main slate positioned by the combined salary of the stack and the percentage of time that team’s stack was the highest scorer in the simulations.

A way to look at them is that anything above the dashed horizontal line is a good scoring stack, and anything to the right of the dashed vertical line is a high-priced stack. You should pay most attention to the upper-right (high-scoring and high-priced) and upper-left (high-scoring and low-priced) quadrants. Ideally, you’ll find something in the upper-left that you’re confident in, but often paying up and moving into the upper-right can be beneficial.

QUARTERBACK/WIDE RECEIVER STACK

QB/WR players

Team Highest % Player Pos DK Fpts DK Salary FD Fpts FD Salary
ATL 11.1 Matt Ryan QB 21.8 6,000 20.1 7,300
ATL 11.1 Russell Gage WR 12.7 5,000 9.9 6,000
DAL 9.4 Dak Prescott QB 25.2 6,900 23.2 8,100
DAL 9.4 CeeDee Lamb WR 17.7 7,000 13.9 7,700
LAC 7.4 Justin Herbert QB 23.3 7,300 21.6 8,000
LAC 7.4 Keenan Allen WR 18.5 7,000 14.1 7,200
PIT 7.2 Ben Roethlisberger QB 17.3 5,600 16.3 7,100
PIT 7.2 Diontae Johnson WR 16.7 6,800 12.9 7,400
IND 6.1 Carson Wentz QB 18.6 5,900 17.4 7,500
IND 6.1 Michael Pittman Jr. WR 12.9 6,300 10.3 7,200
TB 5.9 Tom Brady QB 24.3 7,600 22.5 8,300
TB 5.9 Mike Evans WR 19.7 6,900 15.7 7,400
MIN 5.6 Kirk Cousins QB 18.6 6,100 17.2 7,600
MIN 5.6 Justin Jefferson WR 17.4 7,700 13.8 7,500
NO 5.1 Trevor Siemian QB 15.4 5,200 13.9 7,000
NO 5.1 Marquez Callaway WR 9.5 5,100 7.6 5,600
DET 4.5 Jared Goff QB 13.1 5,200 12.3 6,500
DET 4.5 Kalif Raymond WR 9.2 4,900 7.5 5,500
ARZ 4.3 Kyler Murray QB 23.9 8,000 22.6 8,300
ARZ 4.3 DeAndre Hopkins WR 13.8 6,700 11.0 7,100
JAX 4.2 Trevor Lawrence QB 15.3 5,300 14.5 6,600
JAX 4.2 Marvin Jones Jr. WR 13.3 5,800 10.6 5,900
NE 4.1 Mac Jones QB 17.2 5,300 16.1 6,500
NE 4.1 Jakobi Meyers WR 12.9 4,800 10.0 5,500
GB 3.7 Aaron Rodgers QB 10.3 7,100 10.1 7,800
GB 3.7 Davante Adams WR 20.7 7,900 16.1 8,700
BUF 3.6 Josh Allen QB 26.0 7,900 24.5 8,700
BUF 3.6 Stefon Diggs WR 17.4 7,500 13.8 7,900
WAS 3.5 Taylor Heinicke QB 16.5 5,400 15.4 6,900
WAS 3.5 Terry McLaurin WR 15.7 7,600 12.2 7,100
PHI 3.3 Jalen Hurts QB 20.7 6,500 19.4 7,700
PHI 3.3 DeVonta Smith WR 14.2 5,900 11.2 6,200
TEN 3.0 Ryan Tannehill QB 20.5 6,200 19.5 7,400
TEN 3.0 A.J. Brown WR 16.5 7,800 13.2 7,600
CLV 2.7 Baker Mayfield QB 17.4 5,400 16.4 6,800
CLV 2.7 Jarvis Landry WR 14.2 5,200 11.2 6,100
SEA 2.4 Russell Wilson QB 20.1 6,700 18.9 7,500
SEA 2.4 D.K. Metcalf WR 17.3 6,800 13.8 8,000
DEN 2.1 Teddy Bridgewater QB 19.7 5,500 18.6 7,200
DEN 2.1 Jerry Jeudy WR 12.4 5,300 10.0 6,200
NYJ 1.2 Mike White QB 14.2 5,100 13.2 6,700
NYJ 1.2 Corey Davis WR 10.9 4,900 8.7 6,200
CAR 0.8 Phillip Walker QB 15.5 5,000 14.3 6,200
CAR 0.8 D.J. Moore WR 18.7 6,300 14.4 6,800

RUNNING BACK/DST

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