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Best NFL game stacks to target for DFS GPPs in Week 4

Stacking is essential to success in DFS GPPs. The average user who submits a handful of lineups on any one DFS slate doesn’t stack nearly enough in their lineups. The art of stacking is a way to increase variance, which is the only option that offers enough upside to win a GPP tournament. An overlooked approach is the game-level stack, which takes not only a quarterback and pass-catching option but also runs it back with a pass-catcher or running back from the opposing team.

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We see in our introductory article on stacking that if we hit on the correct quarterback and wide receiver to stack, a player from the opposing team is typically going to be worthwhile to pair with this combination to apply more lineup correlation into your roster builds.

This provides inherent upside to our lineups — if we hit on the correct quarterback, two or more additional lineup spots are typically hit on by the simple fact that they are highly correlated to our quarterback play. If your quarterback is a miss, the rest of your lineup is likely in a similar situation, as it is hard to pull off a quality finish in a GPP contest with a dud at the quarterback position. 

Focusing on this approach of identifying quarterbacks who could be hits, we have built a model to project who is most likely to finish as the highest-scoring quarterback on the main slate based on fantasy projections, opponent-adjusted grades and betting market lines. Utilizing correlations for how fantasy points are distributed at the game level, we can then see the correct framework for how to approach roster construction for a game stack.

WEEK 3 REVIEW

For the third straight week, we identified the core game stack that went on to win the Milly Maker. It was as chalky as they come with the Seahawks' multi-stack. The one part we missed was Michael Gallup over CeeDee Lamb, whose ownership rate was 14 percentage points higher than his counterpart. The Russell Wilson, D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett stack was on 3% of Milly Maker lineups. Adding in the lowest-owned Cowboys wide receiver dropped it to .3% owned. 

This highlights the flaw in current ownership analysis. DFS players spend too much time on both single-player ownership and team-level ownership. The perfect spot is to focus on stack-level ownership, which should help frame the rest of your decision-making process. If a stack has low ownership, it's safe to go with the chalky plays if you believe they are the best values that week. If your stack has high ownership, you need to differentiate either within that stack or the players you place around that stack. This will be a focus not only of this article but the ownership report piece that drops every Saturday. 

The 2020 season has brought a significant adjustment to game totals after increased scoring. We have a ridiculous amount of high-total options to sift through for Week 4. The mean total for Week 4 games is the highest for any one week since we began tracking such numbers in 2007. It is over one point higher than the previous mean total from Week 11 of 2018. This should cause game-level stack ownership to be incredibly spread out. There is no obvious chalk, meaning that if you have conviction about a certain play or game, you should load up on that situation.

Let’s dive into the best stacks for Week 4 based on our model predictions for games that could involve the highest-scoring players at each position. 

HIGH-OWNED OPTIONS

MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ HOUSTON TEXANS

This game is tied for the second-highest total on the main slate, with game script projecting the matchup to stay close throughout. Our predictive models lean toward the over in this matchup, providing some signal that this is one of the best games to stack in Week 4. The Texans have the 28th-ranked defense by our opponent-adjusted grading. The Vikings' defense has allowed the 10th-highest expected points added per pass attempt figure, and their coverage grade ranks 18th overall. Both teams are desperate for their first win, which could lead to more aggressive play calling by coaches on the brink of complete disaster. 

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