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Best NFL game stacks to target for DFS GPPs in Week 3

Stacking is essential to success in DFS GPPs. The average user who submits a handful of lineups on any one DFS slate doesn’t stack nearly enough in their lineups. The art of stacking is a way to increase variance, which is the only option that offers enough upside to win a GPP tournament. An overlooked approach is the game-level stack, which takes not only a quarterback and pass-catching option but also runs it back with a pass-catcher or running back from the opposing team.

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We see in our introductory article on stacking that if we hit on the correct quarterback and wide receiver to stack, a player from the opposing team is typically going to be worthwhile to pair with this combination to apply more lineup correlation into your roster builds.

This provides inherent upside to our lineups — if we hit on the correct quarterback, two or more additional lineup spots are typically hit on by the simple fact that they are highly correlated to our quarterback play. If your quarterback is a miss, the rest of your lineup is likely in a similar situation, as it is hard to pull off a quality finish in a GPP contest with a dud at the quarterback position. 

Focusing on this approach of identifying quarterbacks who could be hits, we have built a model to project who is most likely to finish as the highest-scoring quarterback on the main slate based on fantasy projections and betting market lines. Utilizing correlations for how fantasy points are distributed at the game level, we can then see the correct framework for how to approach roster construction for a game stack.

WEEK 2 REVIEW

For the second straight week we had the core game stack that went on to win the milly maker identified. We pivoted off of Calvin Ridley to Julio Jones, but correctly identified the Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb pieces. A few different iterations of this game stack was scattered throughout the top ten in GPP contests. Josh Allen to Stefon Diggs was a better team stack but didn’t have quite what it takes to win GPP contests. This goes back to the idea on how worthwhile it is to identify and hit on gamestacks. Even if there is a better team level stack at lower ownership — there is increased difficulty rounding out the rest of your lineup with hits at every position given no correlations to your quarterback option. 

The other games we identified — Ravens @ Texans and Vikings @ Colts — didn’t stay tight enough to reward us in GPP contests. Our model was also quite high on Ryan Tannehill but the column was posted before A.J. Brown’s injury situation was fully understood. 

We have seen an adjustment to game totals after increased scoring to start the 2020 season. Two games are pushing to be the highest totals we have had so far this season. Three more games are pushing into the sweet spot for game stacks that could be underutilized but offer enough scoring to be viable options. 

Let’s dive into the best stacks for Week 3 based on our model predictions for games that could involve the highest-scoring players at each position. 

HIGH-OWNED OPTIONS

DALLAS COWBOYS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

This game should be dripping with opportunity from a fantasy perspective after opening and holding to the highest total we have in 2020. The ticket and cash percentages are heavily skewed toward the over, with a few books moving up after opening at 55.5. Both offenses have a pass-to-rush ratio over 60%, with neither defense capable of stopping anyone to start the season.  

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