Hello, and welcome to the Week 11 Actual Opportunity Report. Actual Opportunity is our approximation of how many fantasy points a player should score based on workload. If you’re unfamiliar with Actual Opportunity and how it applies to fantasy football, you can read the in-depth explanation here.
Essentially, we’re using a 10-season sample of play-by-play data to calculate expected fantasy points from a player’s seasonal or weekly usage. We look at each target (by distance from the end zone and depth of target) and each carry (by distance from the end zone and down and distance) and add this up to determine how valuable a player’s role is for fantasy purposes. We can contrast this with fantasy production to measure efficiency.
In layman’s terms, Actual Opportunity is “how many points a player should have scored” given his workload, based on what the average player would have scored. “Expected fantasy points” will be used interchangeably with “Actual Opportunity” throughout this article.
Through 10 weeks, here are the top 30 players in expected fantasy points per game. After that, we’ll look at some notable standouts:
(AO: 20.4, PPR: 23.4)
Gurley led all players in expected fantasy points in Week 10, and now ranks third among all players in expected fantasy points per game (20.4). While his expected total in Week 10 (28.2) was well above his actual total (19.6), efficiency shouldn’t be a concern with Gurley. He ranks sixth-best among running backs in efficiency, with 3.1 fantasy points per game over his expectation. Gurley saw only 11 carries last week (to Lance Dunbar‘s five), but the bulk of his expectation came from a whopping seven targets and three total opportunities inside the 5-yard line. Gurley now ranks sixth among running backs in carries per game (19.1), 13th in targets per game (4.6), and leads in carries inside the 5-, 10-, and 20-yard lines per game. Gurley should be a top-five running back every week, regardless of matchup.