- Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Rams: The NFL’s two top teams by play-action pass play percentage meet in Week 4.
- New Orleans Saints at Buffalo Bills: The Saints and Bills could combine for Week 4’s highest offensive play count.
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Estimated Reading Time: 7 minutes
The report below identifies fantasy-friendly and unfriendly NFL offenses while breaking down possible outcomes from each week’s offensive matchups.
Highlighted statistical variables include neutral game pass play and run play rates, success rate, expected points added (EPA) per play, shifts, motion and play-action pass play usage, offensive play volume and pace.
Neutral game run play rate and neutral game pass play rate
Offensive neutral game run and pass play percentages among NFL teams:
The Seattle Seahawks–Arizona Cardinals game could surpass its 43.5-point over/under on Thursday night, per PFF's scores and schedule. Arizona’s meager 1.0-point home favorite status bodes positively for its continued pass-heavy tactics and new starting running back. Opponents have employed a high-volume, pass-heavy offensive approach when facing Arizona. The Cardinals' ineffective pass rush and injury–depleted secondary have surrendered 15 explosive pass plays.
Seattle offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak preaches a run-first philosophy yet ranks top three in yards per pass play (8.81), ties for sixth in explosive pass plays (18), 28th in yards per rushing attempt (3.3) and ties for 17th in explosive run plays (seven). Seahawks No. 1 wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s nine explosive pass plays rank first among 79 NFL wide receivers with at least nine targets, and his 88.3 PFF receiving grade ranks third. Seattle’s record-setting rookie wide receiver offers boom-bust flex appeal.
The New York Jets–Miami Dolphins’ Monday night game features two offenses that employ starkly different offensive approaches. Miami ranks second among NFL offenses in neutral game pass play percentage, while the Jets rank second-to-last. The two units are moderately consistent, but the Jets struggle to pick up chunk gains.
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