- Miami–Florida State: The Hurricanes and Seminoles meet in one of the biggest games of the entire ACC schedule.
- Vanderbilt–Alabama: The Crimson Tide and Commodores clash in this top-20 matchup as Alabama looks to get revenge on Vanderbilt for last season’s upset.
- Get PFF+ 25% off: Use promo code PFFCFB25 to get 25% off your PFF+ annual subscription.
Estimated Reading Time: 30 minutes
Week 5 of the college football season was plenty chaotic, with three of the top-five and four of the top-10 teams going down. Week 6 isn’t as loaded on paper, but there are still a couple matchups between top-20 teams and several other intriguing games featuring College Football Playoff contenders.
Here are the storylines to know, matchups to watch on both sides of the ball and predictions for the nine biggest games in Week 6.
No. 14 Iowa State Cyclones at Cincinnati Bearcats (12 PM ET on ESPN2)
Storyline to know: Can Cincinnati spoil Iowa State’s perfect season?
The Cyclones have started 5-0 for the second straight season. Before last year, Iowa State hadn’t begun a year with five consecutive wins since 1980. The Cyclones go on the road to put their unbeaten record on the line against a Cincinnati team that’s won three straight following its season-opening loss to Nebraska.
The Bearcats enter Saturday as 1.5-point favorites, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.
Matchup to watch when Iowa State has the ball (Dalton): Rocco Becht vs. Cincinnati’s struggling cornerbacks
Last season, Rocco Becht was armed with two future NFL wide receivers, Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, who allowed him to attack downfield with ease. With those two graduated, there were questions about whether or not the Cyclones could continue to attack opposing defenses in the outer areas of the field.
Becht would be wise to attack the outside in this game, where Cincinnati’s cornerbacks rank 117th in the nation in PFF coverage grade. Becht has seen marked improvement in his passing at or outside the numbers, as he currently ranks 16th in the FBS with an 88.0 PFF passing grade to that area of the field. He’s also made a habit of pushing the ball downfield on those throws, ranking fifth in air yards percentage and eighth in big-time throws.
Matchup to watch when Cincinnati has the ball (Max): Can Brendan Sorsby continue his scorching hot start to his season?
After posting just a 46.1 PFF passing grade in the season-opening loss to Nebraska, Cincinnati quarterback Brendan Sorsby has been one of the best quarterbacks in the nation over the last few weeks. His 92.2 overall PFF grade on the season is the best in the country, as the redshirt junior has tallied 85.0-plus grades in each of the last three contests. Sorsby delivers with great touch, and his mobility allows him to escape pressure and make a play with his legs. His 86.6 PFF rushing grade stands third among all FBS signal-callers.
Iowa State’s defense will present a similar challenge to the one Sorsby struggled with in Nebraska in terms of how effective it is in coverage. The Cyclones are tied for 34th in PFF coverage grade (87.3) this season, while the Cornhuskers’ 89.7 coverage grade is tied for 22nd.
One difference, though, is that Nebraska played man coverage on 61.3% of Sorsby’s dropbacks in that game, while Iowa State’s 12.3% man coverage rate is just 115th in the FBS this year. Sorsby’s 90.7 PFF passing grade against zone coverage this season is 10th in the country, as he’s tossed five big-time throws with no turnover-worthy plays in such situations.
Predictions
Max: Iowa State 30, Cincinnati 27
Both quarterbacks could find plenty of success against these defenses, which should ultimately lead to a shootout. Ultimately, I trust the Cyclones’ defense to come up with enough stops to pull out the road victory. Iowa State will start 6-0 for the second straight season and only the second time since 1938.
Dalton: Cincinnati 27, Iowa State 24
This projects to be one of the most even matchups of the week between two teams with similar structures. The Bearcats can get a home victory if they run the ball well on offense, and their run defense should get a boost with a return of star nose tackle Dontay Corleone.
No. 16 Vanderbilt Commodores at No. 10 Alabama Crimson Tide (3:30 PM ET on ABC)
Storyline to know: Can the Crimson Tide keep it rolling and get revenge?
After opening the season with an embarrassing 31-17 loss to then-unranked Florida State, Alabama is back in the top 10 following a 24-21 road victory over Kirby Smart and fifth-ranked Georgia this past weekend.
The Crimson Tide will host ESPN’s College GameDay this weekend as No. 16 Vanderbilt comes to Tuscaloosa with a perfect 5-0 record. This game also presents a chance for Alabama to exact revenge on the Commodores after last year’s earth-shattering 40-35 upset. The Crimson Tide entered that game as the No. 1 team in the country and were favored by 24.5 points. If that showdown had gone Alabama’s way, it would’ve made the College Football Playoff.
Meanwhile, the Commodores are looking to prove to the college football world that they’re not just a Cinderella story — they’re a legitimate playoff contender themselves.
Matchup to watch when Vanderbilt has the ball (Dalton): Will Diego Pavia continue his torrid pace as a dropback passer?
Vanderbilt’s offensive success since the start of last season has been defined by a creative run game and diverse play-action pass concepts that create explosive plays downfield. However, while Diego Pavia set a career-high with a 79.4 non-play action PFF passing grade, that wasn’t the aspect of the offense that instilled fear in opponents.
That seems to have changed with another year of experience under center for Pavia. He currently owns a 90.6 passing grade on non-play-action dropbacks that is the fourth-best in the FBS. He also ranks among the top 10 passers in that category in yards per attempt, passing touchdowns, adjusted completion rate and big-time throw rate.
Pavia torched Alabama last season with his play-action passing. If he continues his torrid pace as a true dropback passer, Alabama could be in for another long day in pass defense.
Matchup to watch when Alabama has the ball (Max): Can Vanderbilt get Ty Simpson under consistent pressure?
Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson is currently second in Heisman odds (+900), according to DraftKings Sportsbook. A big reason for that is how deadly he has been from within a clean pocket. His 92.4 overall PFF grade when kept clean is sixth among all FBS quarterbacks, as he’s thrown 11 touchdowns (fifth) with no interceptions in such situations.
But when Simpson has been under pressure, he’s been far less effective. His 48.0 overall PFF grade is 96th in the country, and his 54.2% adjusted completion rate is 101st. Fortunately for Simpson, Alabama’s offensive line has been phenomenal in protecting him this year with the 34th best PFF pass-blocking grade in all of college football (75.2). That includes a 78.1 PFF pass-blocking grade this past week against Georgia in a game where Simpson was under pressure on just five of his 40 dropbacks.
However, Vanderbilt could present more issues, as it’s 12th in PFF pass-rushing grade this year (82.4) and 19th in pressure rate (37.6%). The Commodores are also 19th with a 90.0 team PFF coverage grade, so Simpson may have to make some tight-window throws under duress.
Predictions
Max: Alabama 34, Vanderbilt 27
Both quarterbacks in this game thrive within clean pockets, and Simpson and Pavia could see plenty on Saturday. That could ultimately produce a high-scoring affair, with the Crimson Tide pulling it out at home and getting payback for last year’s loss.
Dalton: Vanderbilt 35, Alabama 31
This game could be an instant classic in the same vein as last season’s matchup. Pavia has taken another step in his development as a passer. Vanderbilt’s defense is better than last season as well. Pavia pulls off another season-defining upset over the Crimson Tide.
No. 9 Texas Longhorns at Florida Gators (3:30 PM ET on ESPN)
Storyline to know: Texas with its first opportunity to prove itself following the loss to Ohio State
The Longhorns entered the season as the No. 1 team in the country, their first time topping the preseason AP poll in program history. But that initial ranking wouldn’t last long, as Texas lost on the road to No. 3 Ohio State by a final score of 14-7.
The Longhorns won their following three games by an average of 34 points, but all three were against inferior Group of Five opponents. While Florida started just 1-3 on the season, the Gators are still a talented team who are desperate to get their season back on track. A loss for Texas would derail its season, while a win would be the first step in repairing its national title hopes.
Matchup to watch when Texas has the ball (Max): Can Florida get any sort of pressure on Arch Manning?
Florida entered the season with PFF’s No. 4 defensive line in college football. But through the first month of the season, the Gators have struggled to get any modicum of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. In fact, Florida’s 23.5% pressure rate is the lowest in the Power Four right now.
Injuries have played a major part in the team’s struggles. Star defensive tackle Caleb Banks has only played in one game due to a foot injury, while edge defender LJ McCray suffered a broken foot. Fellow edge rusher George Gumbs Jr. missed last week’s loss to Miami with an undisclosed injury as well, and starting nose tackle Michael Boireau hasn’t played in the last two games.
With a rebuilt offensive line, Texas is only 101st in pressure rate allowed at 33.9%, and Arch Manning sits just 77th in adjusted completion rate under pressure (58.6%). If the Gators can’t get him under consistent pressure, he could find success against their secondary. Manning owns an 87.8 PFF grade when kept clean with an 85.2 PFF career passing grade against zone coverage. The latter figure is especially important considering Florida runs zone at the third-highest rate in the country (83.5%).
Matchup to watch when Florida has the ball (Dalton): DJ Lagway vs. Texas’ elite secondary
Gators quarterback DJ Lagway has struggled to create explosive plays in recent weeks. That has led to him earning just a 56.4 PFF passing grade with three big-time throws and seven turnover-worthy plays combined against USF, Miami and LSU.
After ranking third in the nation with a 95.6 deep PFF passing grade last season, Lagway has not completed a pass of 20 or more air yards in his last three games. In fact, his only deep completion of the season came on a spectacular catch by Vernell Brown III against FCS opponent Long Island in Week 1.
The Longhorns’ secondary excels at preventing those deep shots and forcing quarterbacks to operate underneath with accuracy. Texas has allowed just one deep completion this season, which came on an incredible contested catch by Ohio State’s Carnell Tate in Week 1. Texas ranks sixth in the nation with a 71.5 deep coverage grade.
Predictions
Max: Texas 27, Florida 14
Lagway struggles to get anything going against Texas’ stout defense, while Manning thrives with squeaky clean pockets against Florida’s zone defense.
Dalton: Texas 23, Florida 16
Arch Manning will need to stay composed in a raucous environment, but the Longhorns’ defense should carry them to another victory over a struggling Florida offense.
Boise State Broncos at No. 21 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (3:30 PM ET on NBC/Peacock)
Storyline to know: A potential playoff elimination game for both teams
Notre Dame started its season with a couple of defeats to current top-six teams in Miami (FL) and Texas A&M, two games that the Fighting Irish lost by a combined four points. Notre Dame essentially cannot afford another loss if it wants to make the College Football Playoff. The Irish have rebounded nicely over the past two weeks with victories over Purdue and Arkansas, winning both by an average of 34.5 points.
On the other hand, Boise State started its season with a rough 34-7 loss to USF but has bounced back nicely by winning its last three games. But if the Broncos lose this game, it’ll be difficult for them to run the table and still make the playoff as a two-loss Mountain West champion.
Matchup to watch when Boise State has the ball (Max): Boise State’s run game against Notre Dame’s run defense
Even though Ashton Jeanty is now starring for the Las Vegas Raiders, Boise State’s offense is still centered around its ability to run the football. The Broncos are 20th in PFF run-blocking grade (71.9) this season while placing 21st in PFF rushing grade (85.6) and yards per attempt (6.3). Unlike last year, where Jeanty was a one-man show, Boise State has employed a committee backfield this season.
Boise State running backs this season
| Name | PFF Rushing Grade | Rushing Attempts | Rushing Yards |
| Dylan Riley | 76.2 | 48 | 360 |
| Sire Gaines | 80.4 | 38 | 246 |
| Malik Sherrod | 78.2 | 34 | 198 |
The Broncos’ run game also has a direct effect on how efficient quarterback Maddux Madsen is. He owns an 80.9 career PFF passing grade with play action and only a 67.1 career passing grade without it.
Notre Dame’s pass defense has been unexpectedly concerning to start the season, but its run defense has been solid. The Fighting Irish’s 86.7 PFF run-defense grade is a top-40 mark in America, the team’s 4.3 yards per attempt allowed are 44th. Notre Dame has only missed a tackle on 10% of opposing run plays this season, the ninth-best rate in the Power Four.
Matchup to watch when Notre Dame has the ball (Dalton): Can Boise State slow down the hottest offense in the country?
Over the past couple of weeks, Notre Dame has been firing on all cylinders offensively. The Fighting Irish have scored 56 points in consecutive games after putting up 40 in their narrow loss to Texas A&M in Week 3. Only Vanderbilt has scored more points than Notre Dame over the past two weeks.
It’s been a balanced effort, as the Fighting Irish rank third in the nation in offensive grade and first in EPA per play across their matchups with Purdue and Arkansas. They’ve been equally explosive on the ground and through the air, with 17 explosive runs and 19 explosive passes in those two games.
CJ Carr is airing it out with a greater than 10-yard average depth of target in each of his last three games. Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price have combined for 11 touchdowns over the past two weeks. Jordan Faison and Malachi Fields are dominating on the outside. Boise State’s defense has its hands full across the board with this Notre Dame offense.
Predictions
Max: Notre Dame 38, Boise State 20
Notre Dame’s offense is on fire right now, averaging over 50 points per game over its last three contests. The Fighting Irish find more success against Boise State, while their run defense holds up against the Broncos.
Dalton: Notre Dame 45, Boise State 21
With all due respect to Boise State’s excellent run game and defense, this Fighting Irish squad is too explosive to overcome the way they are playing right now.
No. 24 Virginia Cavaliers at Louisville Cardinals (3:30 PM ET on ESPN2)
Storyline to know: How legit is Virginia?
After winning just a combined 11 games over the last three seasons, Virgin had mediocre expectations heading into 2025. But, the Cavaliers are making major waves right now with a 4-1 record that includes a thrilling double-overtime victory over eighth-ranked Florida State this past weekend.
Now, Virginia is ranked for the first time in six years. But, the Cavaliers are still 7.5-point underdogs this week, as the program goes on the road against a 4-0 Louisville squad that’s currently ranked in the PFF top 25.
Matchup to watch when Virginia has the ball (Dalton): Chandler Morris vs. Louisville’s elite pass rush
Virginia quarterback Chandler Morris has done an excellent job of handling pressure in the pocket so far. Aside from two interceptions against Florida State last week, his production under pressure has been a big reason for the Cavaliers’ success.
Morris currently ranks seventh in the FBS with a 74.5 PFF passing grade under pressure this season. He’s completed 65.9% of his passes in those situations and picked up 20 first downs when under pressure. Both of those are top-five marks in the FBS this season.
Louisville counters with the best pass rush Morris has faced this season. The Cardinals, led by edge rushers Clev Lubin and AJ Green, lead the nation in PFF pass-rush grade and pressure rate while ranking second behind Miami in pass-rush win rate. Morris will need to take care of the football when Louisville’s defensive line does win up front in order to pull off the road victory.
Matchup to watch when Louisville has the ball (Max): Louisville’s offensive line against Virginia’s defensive line
There’s a lot going right with Louisville’s offense this year. The Cardinals are 24th in PFF rushing grade as a team; quarterback Miller Moss boasts a solid 74.9 overall PFF grade; and there are exciting wide receivers like Chris Bell and Caullin Lacy.
But, the Cardinals have serious concerns up front now. Louisville’s 58.8 offensive line grade is 109th in the country, as the Cardinals rank 91st in PFF pass-blocking grade and 120th in PFF run-blocking grade. Moss only has a 56% adjusted completion rate under pressure this year, which is 91st in the country. For reference, that number jumps up to 80.2% when he’s kept clean. Those offensive line struggles could be a reason why Louisville only runs the ball on 42.1% of its plays — which is 104th in the FBS — even with a star running back in Isaac Brown.
Virginia’s defensive line is 27th in grade as a unit (81.0) and 24th in PFF run-defense grade (82.2). The Cavaliers’ edge duo of Daniel Rickert and Mitchell Melton are each in the top 10 of the ACC in pressures as well. But, most of those numbers are buoyed by games against Coastal Carolina, William & Mary and Stanford. When facing N.C. State and Florida State, Virginia’s defensive line recorded just a 65.7 overall PFF grade as a unit.
Predictions
Max: Louisville 34, Virginia 24
Louisville’s defense has played some great football this year. The Cardinals are able to slow down the Cavaliers’ red-hot offense just enough, while Louisville’s weapons lead the team to victory.
Dalton: Louisville 31, Virginia 24
Virginia’s offensive improvement is real, but Louisville’s pass rush and ability to run the football allow the Cardinals to control the pace of this game. The Cardinals get a hard-fought home victory to stay undefeated.
No. 11 Texas Tech Red Raiders at Houston Cougars (7 PM ET on ESPN)
Storyline to know: A pair of undefeated Big 12 teams square off
Saturday’s game between Texas Tech and Houston pits two of the four remaining undefeated teams in the Big 12 against each other. The Red Raiders (4-0) are the highest-ranked team in the conference and are the favorites to win the Big 12 at (+180) on DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Cougars aren’t ranked but own a 4-0 record themselves. It’s Houston’s best start in nine years, and it’ll try to join the top 25 for the first time since 2022 with an upset victory.
Matchup to watch when Texas Tech has the ball (Max): Behren Morton against Houston’s zone defense
Behren Morton exited Texas Tech’s last game against No. 16 Utah a couple weeks ago due to a concussion. His backup, redshirt freshman Will Hammond, came in and produced a 96.0 overall PFF grade in the game while leading the Red Raiders to a 34-10 road victory. Now that Morton has cleared concussion protocol, head coach Joey McGuire put any quarterback controversy to bed by listing the redshirt senior as his starter this week.
This week, Morton has an opportunity to remind many why he was the starter in the first place. Houston possesses the ninth-worst PFF pass-rush grade in the Power Four, and Morton’s 90.1 PFF passing grade when kept clean is a top-20 mark in the country.
While the Cougars lay claim to the second-best PFF coverage grade in the FBS, it might also be an advantageous advantage for Texas Tech. That’s because Houston plays zone coverage at the second-highest rate in the Power Four (84.5%). Morton’s 89.5 PFF passing grade against zone coverage is a top-15 mark in the country, while his 78.6% completion rate slots seventh. Likewise, his 149.9 passer rating against zone coverage is also tied with Fernando Mendoza for the best in the FBS.
Matchup to watch when Houston has the ball (Dalton): Will Houston be able to pass protect?
While the Cougars are undefeated and much improved on offense compared to last season, they have not fared well in pass protection so far this season. In fact, they own the lowest PFF pass-blocking grade in the Power Four — and third-lowest in the nation — at just 32.5.
That lack of stability up front could haunt Houston as it faces one of the best defensive lines in the country this week. Texas Tech currently ranks fifth in the nation in PFF pass-rush grade, thanks to their stellar unit up front. Romello Height, David Bailey, Skyler Gill-Howard and Lee Hunter all have recorded pass-rush grades of at least 74.9 this season. Houston would be wise to avoid obvious passing situations against this fierce unit.
Predictions
Max: Texas Tech 34, Houston 17
Texas Tech dominates in the trenches on both sides of this game and cruises to its second-straight road Big 12 victory over an undefeated opponent.
Dalton: Texas Tech 30, Houston 10
Houston’s defense could keep it in this game for a while, but the Cougars have a hard time scoring against an excellent Texas Tech defense.
No. 3 Miami (FL) Hurricanes at No. 18 Florida State Seminoles (7:30 PM ET on ABC)
Storyline to know: One of the biggest games of the year in the ACC
Saturday night’s game between Miami and Florida State pits the highest-ranked team in the ACC against the third-highest-ranked outfit. The Hurricanes and Seminoles are also bitter rivals and have met every season since 1969.
This year’s matchup is also the first since 2016 where both teams are ranked, and the first in 12 years where both are in the top 20. Miami is trying to show that it deserves to be the No. 1 team in the country, while Florida State is trying to get its season back on track after a heartbreaking double-overtime loss to Virginia this past week.
Matchup to watch when Miami has the ball (Max): Can Florida State get any pressure on Carson Beck?
The biggest reason why Miami is one of the top contenders for the national championship is its dominance in the trenches, both along the offensive line and defensive line. The Hurricanes rank ninth in both PFF pass-blocking grade (81.0) and in PFF run-blocking grade (75.1) this season, good for ninth in offensive line grade as a unit (79.4). Quarterback Carson Beck has done a good job of taking advantage of his overpowering offensive line, posting a 76.5% completion rate from a clean pocket (26th).
On the other hand, Florida State only has the 95th-best PFF pass-rushing grade in the country (66.6). It’s not like the Seminoles have an elite secondary to make up for it, as they place just 84th in PFF coverage grade (71.6). If Florida State can’t put Beck under pressure, he could carve up that defense.
Matchup to watch when Florida State has the ball (Dalton): Can Florida State’s creative run game work around Miami’s elite defensive front?
Hiring Gus Malzahn as offensive coordinator and bringing in quarterback Tommy Castellanos were clear signals that Florida State was going to emphasize its run game this season. The Seminoles need to do so again, as they face one of the best defensive fronts in the country this week.
Led by Castellanos and running backs Gavin Sawchuk and Ousmane Kromah, the Seminoles currently rank third in the nation in PFF rushing grade. They also sit among the top three in yards per carry, EPA per rush and explosive run rate while running the ball more often than all but five teams in the nation. Malzahn’s ability to create space for his ball carriers, particularly on the edges, has made Florida State’s rushing attack one of the most explosive in the country.
The Hurricanes counter with their outstanding edge defender duo of Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor, who have earned 92.6 and 86.4 PFF run-defense grades, respectively, this season. As a team, Miami sits second in the FBS behind Texas Tech with a 93.7 run-defense grade. This matchup on the ground will likely decide Florida State’s offensive fate in this game.
Predictions
Max: Miami 31, Florida State 24
Florida State’s run game is a unique matchup for Miami’s defensive line, but the Hurricanes still win in the trenches on both sides of the ball to come up with the road win.
Dalton: Miami 27, Florida State 24
Miami faces a schematic challenge in Florida State’s run game as well as a raucous environment in Tallahassee. However, the Hurricanes' defense makes enough stops, and Carson Beck gets enough clean pockets for the Canes to escape with a win.
Minnesota Golden Gophers at No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes (7:30 PM ET on NBC/Peacock)
Storyline to know: Will Ohio State continue to show that it’s the best team in the country?
Ohio State lost plenty from last season’s national championship roster. Indeed, 14 Buckeyes were selected in the 2025 NFL Draft (tied for second all time), and both of their coordinators departed the program.
This year, Ohio State is showing that it simply reloaded instead of rebuilding. The Buckeyes are the top-ranked team in America and are the favorites to win another national title (+500), according to DraftKings Sportsbook. Ohio State’s defense, which lost eight starters, is leading the nation with only 5.5 points allowed per game.
The Buckeyes will look to continue their unrelenting run against a 3-1 Minnesota squad that features one of the nation’s highest-graded quarterbacks in redshirt freshman Drake Lindsey. The Golden Gophers haven’t beaten Ohio State since the 2000 season.
Matchup to watch when Minnesota has the ball (Dalton): Drake Lindsey vs. Ohio State’s secondary
With star running backs Darius Taylor and A.J. Turner out due to injury, redshirt freshman quarterback Drake Lindsey has been tasked with carrying Minnesota’s offense in recent weeks. He’s done an excellent job so far, but will need to continue that in order to stand a chance against the Buckeyes.
Lindsey currently ranks third among qualified quarterbacks with a 90.6 PFF passing grade this season. Perhaps most impressive has been the young passer’s ball security, as he is currently carrying an elite 1.5% turnover-worthy play rate through his first four starts. Lindsey is most dangerous when he has time in the pocket to strike deep down the middle of the field.
Of course, he’ll be contending with an outstanding Ohio State secondary led by superstar safety Caleb Downs. The Buckeyes have held each of their first four opponents under 170 passing yards. Their pass rush is also rounding into form, as they’ve collected 10 sacks over their past two games.
Matchup to watch when Ohio State has the ball (Max): Julian Sayin and Ohio State’s receivers against Minnesota’s man coverage
Julian Sayin has been the most accurate quarterback in college football this season. The redshirt freshman leads the nation in completion percentage (78.8%) and adjusted completion rate (87.1%). It also helps that he has an elite group of weapons to throw to, headlined by Heisman candidate Jeremiah Smith and a potential first-round pick this year in Carnell Tate. The Buckeyes are currently ninth in the country in PFF receiving grade (80.5) this year.
Minnesota ranks 19th in PFF coverage grade (90.0) this season and excels while running man coverage at one of the highest rates in the country. The Golden Gophers’ 43.2% man coverage rate is 13th in America, with a vast majority of it (35.4%) coming in Cover 1.
Sayin has been far better against zone coverage this year than man. He owns a 58.2 PFF passing grade against man while posting a 91.6 PFF passing grade against zone. Additionally, Sayin has completed just seven of his 16 attempts against man coverage with a 66.7% adjusted completion rate.
It’s still a very limited sample size, though, and covering Ohio State’s freaks at wide receiver will present a far bigger challenge than anything Minnesota has gone against this season.
Predictions
Max: Ohio State 34, Minnesota 7
While Lindsey has been very impressive thus far, Ohio State’s defense has been lights out against far more explosive offenses than the one Minnesota has. Ohio State’s elite receiving corps also prove to be too much for Minnesota to handle in man coverage.
Dalton: Ohio State 31, Minnesota 9
The Golden Gophers are likely to have a hard time scoring, particularly if Darius Taylor is out for this week. Ohio State cruises to another victory behind its excellent defense.
Mississippi State Bulldogs at No. 6 Texas A&M Aggies (7:30 PM ET on SEC Network)
Storyline to know: Texas A&M looking to continue its hot start as Mississippi State seeks a bounceback
Texas A&M possesses its highest ranking since 2022 thanks to its first 4-0 start in nine years. The Aggies are building one of the more impressive resumes in the country with a road win over eighth-ranked Notre Dame and a victory over Auburn this past weekend.
That profile has a chance to become even stronger this week against Mississippi State, one of the bigger surprises this season. After going 2-10 last year, the Bulldogs are now 4-1 after an overtime loss to No. 15 Tennessee this past weekend. Mississippi State ranked No. 19 in the PFF top 25 before that loss and also boasts a win over the current No. 25 team in Arizona State. If the Bulldogs can pull off the road upset this week, they’ll surely join the top 25 heading into Week 7.
Matchup to watch when Mississippi State has the ball (Dalton): Mississippi State’s off-tackle running vs. Texas A&M’s front seven
Mississippi State ranks just 88th in PFF run-blocking grade this season, but has found rushing success anyway with a excellent pair of rushers in Davon Booth and Fluff Bothwell.
A large chunk of that success comes from the fact that those two backs have excelled when forced to bounce outside. The Bulldogs sit third in the nation in PFF rushing grade on off-tackle runs. They’ve also scored the second-most touchdowns and generated the fifth-most explosive runs when they have attacked outside the tackles.
Texas A&M’s edge defenders will need to set a hard edge in order to slow down Booth and Bothwell on the outside. There will be times when the Aggies' outstanding linebacker duo, Taurean York and Scooby Williams, will be tasked with cleaning things up as well. If they can do that, they severely limit what Mississippi State has to offer on the ground.
Matchup to watch when Texas A&M has the ball (Max): Is Texas A&M finally a run-first offense?
In our preview for Texas A&M’s 2025 season, we listed the Aggies’ biggest strength as having a potentially elite run game. After all, Texas A&M featured our No. 5 running back unit, No. 3 offensive line and a quarterback with excellent mobility in Marcel Reed. But through the first few weeks, the Aggies were a pass-heavy team. Their 60.9% pass rate going into Week 5 was the 10th-highest rate in the Power Four.
Texas A&M faced an Auburn defense this past weekend that had the second-best PFF run-defense grade in college football (94.3) entering Week 5. And yet, the Aggies ran all over the Tigers. Texas A&M ran the ball on 59.4% of its plays in the win, totaling 243 rushing yards at a 5.7-yard clip. The Aggies also generated a season-high 68.5 PFF run-blocking grade in the victory, with 100 of their rushing yards coming before contact.
Mississippi State’s run defense has been relatively average this season, placing 47th in PFF run-defense grade (82.7) and 49th in yards per attempt allowed (4.3). But when isolating their numbers to only against Power Four offenses, the Bulldogs’ run-defense grade drops to 78th (66.2), and their 5.2 yards per carry allowed is 74th.
Texas A&M may employ a similar run-first strategy against a Mississippi State defense that’s been far better on the back end (13th-best coverage grade) than up front.
Predictions
Max: Texas A&M 31, Mississippi State 24
The Aggies’ run game finds success against the Bulldogs’ inconsistent run defense. and Texas A&M continues its undefeated season with a close win over a much-improved Mississippi State outfit.
Dalton: Texas A&M 28, Mississippi State 20
Mississippi State is much improved this season, particularly on defense, but the Aggies found their ground game last week and should be able to hold the Bulldogs’ offense down enough for a home victory.
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