• Bet UNDER 59.5 in No. 18 Florida vs. USF: QB Anthony Richardson has no big-time throws and four turnover-worthy plays (-4 diff second worst in FBS).
• Bet FAU on moneyline vs. UCF: FAU has the third-highest receiving grade in the country (79.8), with QB N'Kosi Perry (84.6) taking advantage.
• Bet UConn (+47.5) at Michigan: Wolverines show mercy in blowouts, pulling top two quarterbacks early a week ago.
• New users who bet $10 or more at BetMGM will receive a free year’s subscription to PFF+ — a $79.99 value.
After a 1-3 week, our total is 5-7 on the college football season for a profit of +1.9 units. However, those 12 bets are just a small sample of PFF Greenline’s recommended picks. So far this season, Greenline has gone 35-27 on its value bets for a return on investment of 11.67%. For a free look at our 28 value bets this weekend, click here.
• To see exact cover probabilities of every game this weekend for free, click here.
Best Spread Pick: UConn Huskies (+47.5) at #4 UM Wolverines
• Merciful Michigan: Greenline likes the Huskies to cover the 47.5-point spread against the fourth-ranked Wolverines, whose affinity for running has shone on 57.9% of their plays this season, tied for 11th among Power Five teams. Jim Harbaugh has shown mercy on inferior opponents, pulling QBJ.J. McCarthy at halftime and resting backup Cade McNamara late in the third quarter. Once a game gets out of hand, Harbaugh oft lightens up on the gas pedal. If Connecticut scores in the double digits like Hawaii did a week ago, this bet has a good chance of hitting. Once again, hold your nose and fade Michigan.
Best Bet: UConn +47.5
Best Moneyline Pick: UCF Knights @ FAU Owls (+260)
• UCF passing woes: The Knights lost at home to Louisville, 20-14, as 5.5-point favorites last week and has struggled to throw the ball this season. John Rhys Plumlee’s 65.7 passing grade ranks merely 80th among FBS quarterbacks. He’s not getting too much help either, as their 59.5 team receiving grade ranks only 105th.
• Owls' passing grade: They don’t have that same problem. Their 79.8 team receiving grade is the third-best in college football. Quarterback N’Kosi Perry has also looked impressive, with an 84.6 passing grade that’s 22nd among FBS quarterbacks, and should have success throwing against an average UCF coverage unit.
• Favorable odds on another UCF upset: Louisville is No. 80 in PFF’s power rankings and was able to pull off an upset on the road against UCF. Florida Atlantic is No. 89 and is playing at home. There’s a better chance Central Florida is upset twice in a row than oddsmakers would suggest.
Best Bet: Florida Atlantic ML (+260)
Best Total Pick: USF Bulls at #18 Florida Gators UNDER 59.5
• Erratic Richardson: After an 80.0 grade against seventh-ranked Utah in Week 2, Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson came crashing back to earth against No. 20 Kentucky, (40.6 grade). Despite putting the ball in harm’s way often, Richardson has no big-time throws and four turnover-worthy plays. That -4 differential is tied for the second-worst among FBS quarterbacks this season.
• Battle-tested ‘D:' Florida’s defense has looked pretty strong this season, currently No. 29th in defensive grade and 19th in coverage among Power Five schools. While those numbers don’t look all that impressive, Florida has played two schools currently ranked in the top-15 of the AP poll.
• Major mismatch: The Gators get their first cupcake in South Florida, ranked only 113th in PFF’s power rankings, including the No. 104 offense. Given Richardson's erratic play, Florida will have a hard time scoring 50 points and getting this total over.
Best Bet: USF @ Florida UNDER 59.5
Bonus Pick: Liberty Flames @ #19 Wake Forest Demon Deacons UNDER 63.5
Deacons' defensive test: Wake Forest’s offense has been a well-oiled machine, averaging 44.5 points against VMI and Vanderbilt. However, the Keydets are an FCS team, and the Commodores have 107th best defense in PFF’s power rankings — a far cry from Liberty, with the 15th best defense in our power rankings. The Flames last week allowed only 14 points in a win over UAB, a top- 40 offense, per PFF.
Missing Malik: While Wake Forest has the nation’s second-best defense in our power rankings, including the second-best overall grade, best pass-rushing grade, ninth-best grade vs. the run and 13th-best in coverage among Power Five teams, Liberty —sans QB Malik Willis — has one of the 25 lowest-graded offenses in the country (60.5).
Best Bet: Liberty @ Wake Forest UNDER 63.5