College Football Week 3 Best Bets

Louisville, Kentucky, USA; Clemson Tigers defensive end Myles Murphy (98) lines up against the Louisville Cardinals during the first quarter at Cardinal Stadium. Clemson defeated Louisville 30-24. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports

Bet Louisiana Tech-Clemson UNDER 53.5: PFF Greenline's fair line is 51.7.

Bet Purdue-Syracuse UNDER 59.5: Boilermaker ‘D' surrenders -0.288 EPA per play; Syracuse similarly stout (-0.249).

Bet Cal +12.5 at Notre Dame: PFF Greenline spread is 9.6.

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Estimated reading time: 2 min

PFF Greenline NCAA has now found 62 value bets across all college football main markets (Money Line, Spread, Totals) through Week 2 of the regular season, including 35 winners (56.45%), amassing a profit of $773.75 to level stakes ($100 bet on + money and to win $100 on – money) and a return on investment of +11.67%

We highlighted South Carolina and Spencer Rattler on the road against Arkansas in Week 2, when Rattler did everything he could to cover the 9.5-point spread, but his defense did not hold up its end of the bargain, allowing five rushing touchdowns and 44 points in a 14-point loss. 

Louisiana Tech @ Clemson (Best Bet: Under 53.5)

Sturdy Clemson ‘D' vs. weak Louisiana Tech offense:  The Bulldogs have posted a lowly 40.8% success rate (93rd of 131) on offensive plays through two weeks against significantly weaker defenses than Clemson (defensive grade of 80.5) in Missouri (125th) and Stephen F. Austin (175th). Clemson is not a team that tends to run up the score — which is important to note on a low total with a wide spread. PFF Greenline’s fair line for this match is 51.7

Best Bet: Under 53.5

Purdue @ Syracuse (Best Bet: Under 59.5)

Not sold on Shrader: Syracuse QB Garrett Shrader has started the year incredibly, posting two successive 90+ grades against Louisville and Connecticut, respectively. But after posting a 54.5 passing grade in 2021, it's hard to be sold on him as a passer. Purdue's ‘D' has given up -0.288 EPA per play through two games and will likely offer Syracuse its toughest test to date this season. The Orange stop-unit has had similar success (-0.249 EPA per play) — and defense could rule the day here. 

Best Bet: Under 59.5

California @ Notre Dame (Best Bet: Cal +12.5)

Bet on Irish QB drop-off: The market has moved toward a low-scoring California cover since Irish QB Tyler Buchner was ruled out for the season, but there is good reason to believe that the market has yet to fully account for the drop-off from Buchner to Drew Pyne, who threw two picks in 11 dropbacks after replacing Buchner last week. Greenline has this spread at 9.6, so getting the key number of 10 onside is a big win. The value of 10 increases on the underdog's side as the total expected points in the match falls.

Best Bet: California +12.5

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