College Football: How often do preseason top-5 teams perform like it?

• Top-five teams regularly win the national championship: In the College Football Playoff era, all but two champions have been ranked that highly to start a season.

• The 2025 season was a blip: Although Penn State and Clemson slid dramatically, recent history suggests that top-five schools usually sustain their placements.

• A less favorable outcome for the No. 1 team: Only two preseason No. 1 teams have led the country in overall PFF grade.

The 2026 college football season is within striking distance. After all, North Carolina and TCU kick things off in Ireland next month.

The ensuing weeks will be filled with preseason hype videos, award predictions and finalized summer scouting takes (maybe another injunction, too). But what will also be released in August is the preseason Associated Press Top 25 poll — where teams like Texas, Oregon, Ohio State and Notre Dame should all rank highly.

The preseason poll is always a useful heuristic to take stock of preseason expectations as well as to compare placement at season’s end. That was especially true in 2025, as teams like Clemson and Penn State started with a top-five ranking but didn’t come close to national championship contention. In fact, eventual champion Indiana only slotted in No. 20 in that poll, which probably only added fuel to the fire for Curt Cignetti.

Are the mid-August rankings actually a valuable tool, or does history tend to side with what happened last season? Let’s take a deep dive utilizing PFF grades, poll standings and eventual season outcomes.

Considering that the top-five of the AP Poll clumps together the most talented and best-coached teams, it may not be surprising to learn that it’s often a strong predictive measurement of season result. In the College Football Era (which dates back to 2014), 10 of the 12 champions were ranked in the preseason top five. In fact, one of the two that wasn’t was LSU in 2019, when the Tigers placed sixth before assembling arguably the greatest team ever.

The Hoosiers certainly demonstrated that a preseason number accompanying a name only carries so much weight. But recency indicates that any team starting outside of the top five or 10 — let alone unranked — has a very slim chance of hoisting the trophy in January.

Likewise, schools beginning a campaign ranked near the top tend to conclude that season in a similar position. In the 12-year sample of this exercise, 55% of preseason top-five teams also netted a top-five finish by the final poll.

As a means of consistency, at least three initial top-five schools stayed there by season’s end in nine of 12 seasons. Believe it or not, only five squads have started in the upper quintile but dropped out of the poll by the end — and two came last year!

Rankings and even season finishes aren’t always the most analytically sound, which is where PFF grades add another layer. Even those point to preseason top-five teams performing better on average, with the group traditionally representing some of the most efficient and dominant teams in the country.

From 2014-25, 27 of the 60 top-five teams (45%) ended that season in the same placement for overall grade, which evaluates a team’s holistic performance. It’s true that that figure is a tad lower than the AP Poll reflection, but it’s also important to note that the majority of those schools didn’t deviate much from the top 10-12 in grading.

There have been several exceptions, including 2025 Clemson ranking 49^th in overall grade and 2015 Michigan State tying for 30^th. But on the whole, it’s very rare to see a projected powerhouse slide below even 25th in cumulative grading. Overall, the schools anticipated to score at will and limit opposing offenses tend to do so, no matter by which means they’re evaluated.

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Where things get even more fascinating is evaluating the nation’s No. 1 team going into a season. These squads often blend star-studded talent, sound coaching and postseason experience to offer a high floor, making them a fairly sure bet to at least reach 10 wins and appear in a coveted New Year’s Six bowl.

This research suggests that while such schools have rarely failed outright — the lowest final ranking came last year, as No. 1 Texas fell to No. 12 — they haven’t often ended on top. Only one time in the CFP era has the preseason No. 1 team either won the national championship or finished in that same AP Poll spot, which happened with the Crimson Tide in 2017.

Moreover, the preseason leader has led the sport in overall PFF grade just twice in 12 tries. It can be embittering at first, but maybe there’s some solace to be had if the Longhorns, Ducks, Fighting Irish, Buckeyes, Hoosiers or someone else doesn’t claim the top spot in 2026.

Ultimately, part of what makes college football so entertaining are the consistent swings in team rankings, fueled by wild upsets and nail-biting matchups between undefeated rivals. But as these statistics and rankings underscore, the upper crust of schools fare pretty steadily — making good on their projections by being very tough to knock completely out.

Consequently, whoever lands in the top five this August has a strong chance to not only perform among the FBS’ best, but also to finish atop the totem pole in Allegiant Stadium.