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Kansas City Chiefs (-3) vs Jacksonville Jaguars [Total: 45.5]
Game Overview
After some difficulties to start the year, the Chiefs appear to be back on track after dominant wins in back to back weeks — first against the Giants in New York, and then with a statement victory at home over the Ravens. Both games resulted in Kansas City covering the spread.
This week’s matchup continues an interesting trend we’ve seen from Chiefs betting markets, as this team has yet to be a road underdog – or a home favorite for that matter. If we include the neutral-site game against the Chargers in Brazil in Week 1, the Chiefs hold a 1-1 ATS record laying points away from home. That’s a scenario they found themselves in frequently last season as well, to which they managed a 4-2 ATS mark.
Some concerns with Kansas City’s offensive efficiency were alleviated this past week with the return of a pivotal weapon in Xavier Worthy, who racked up 121 all-purpose yards on his way to earning an 81.0 PFF grade. That performance helped propel the offense from a 45.3% positive EPA percentage (20th) over the first three weeks, to a top-five mark this past week (56.8%).
On the other sideline, the Jaguars have been clicking to start the year, holding a 3-1 record straight up and against the spread. Jacksonville has been strong at home, covering as the favorite against the Panthers and Texans. As an underdog, the Jags moved to 1-1 ATS after an impressive outright win on the road against the 49ers in Week 4.
With the addition of Liam Coen, the expectation was that the team’s offense would take meaningful steps forward — but so far, it’s the defense that has propelled this team to newfound success. Jacksonville holds the fourth-highest team PFF defense grade and ranks second in EPA per play allowed.
A big contributing factor to that success stems from winning the turnover battle, with the Jags leading the NFL in takeaways with 13 – four more than any other team. That sets up an interesting battle in this matchup, as the Chiefs have turned over the ball just once this season.
WR Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars: Under 56.5 receiving yards (-113)
Brian Thomas Jr.’s struggles to begin the year have been well publicized, currently ranking 95th out of 114 qualifying receivers in PFF receiving grade (56.2). It hasn’t been because of lack of targets, with his 31 tied for 17th in the NFL to start the year. A combination of drops (three) and difficulties hauling in contested catches (1-for-8) have been the underlying issues in Thomas’ game. That has led to the talented receiver failing to exceed this line in all four games this season.
The Jaguars have no shortage of weapons to fill the gap, including impressive play from Parker Washington to start the year and the return of Dyami Brown to the lineup after missing Week 4.
This week’s clash with Kansas City will create more issues given how well the Chiefs have played against receivers in coverage, sporting the highest PFF coverage grade (82.5) against the position in the NFL to start the year
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