• Rex Burkhead‘s receptions prop (2.5): Take the under — Expect the Texans' offense to get back to its Week 1 usage split, meaning more rushes for Burkhead when he’s on the field.
• Nick Chubb‘s receiving yards prop (7.5): Take the over — the Chargers' linebacker corps has combined to allow 26 catches on 30 targets for 202 yards this season.
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Estimated Reading Time: 3 mins
Another 3-2 record last week with a big +206 payout on Aaron Rodgers‘ interception takes us to 12-9 on the season — up just over three units.
Here are the biggest Week 5 mismatches to exploit with props the PFF Greenline model sees value in.
RB Rex Burkhead, Houston Texans: Under 2.5 Receptions (+105)
RB Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans: Under 83.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-113)
Both these bets have a lot to do with what Texans offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton said earlier this week about his offense.
Pep Hamilton said you could make an argument that Texans' offense is showing a 'pattern" when Rex Burkhead is in the game as opposed to Dameon Pierce and team will self-scout and adjust
— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) October 6, 2022
The Texans' run-pass snap split with Burkhead on the field is 20/94, whereas it's 63/70 with Pierce. It’s been even more egregious as of late, with Burkhead seeing only four rushing plays compared to 60 passes the past four weeks. Expect the Texans' offense to get back to its Week 1 usage split, meaning more rushes for Burkhead when he’s on the field. That means I’m leaning toward the under props above against PFF’s fifth-highest-graded rushing defense through four games.
RB Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns: Over 7.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Chubb isn’t featured a ton in the Browns' passing game. He has seen all of seven targets through four games this year. That being said, he’s still hit this prop twice in those four games. And against this Chargers defense, there’s reason to believe he’ll do it a third time. That’s because Los Angeles has the 24th-graded linebacker corps in the NFL. They’ve combined to allow 26 catches on 30 targets for 202 yards this season. The Chargers' defense as a whole has also allowed the fourth-most receiving yards on running back screens this year (68 yards). If there is a weak link on this defense to attack, it’s there. Expect Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski to get crafty in the screen game.
QB Baker Mayfield, Carolina Panthers: Under .5 Passing Touchdowns (+159)
The 49ers have fielded the top defense in the NFL by pretty much any statistical measure you could think of through four games. They are tops in scoring (11.5 points per game), points per drive (.91), PFF defense grade (88.0) and EPA per play (-.220 ) — all by a healthy margin. They’ve allowed two passing touchdowns this season. The Panthers are dead last in passing game EPA per play this season, at -.23. That’s a good combination for this under.
WR A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles: Over 5.5 Receptions (+118)
Brown has had at least seven targets and five receptions in every single game so far this season despite going over this prop only once. While the Eagles have been a run-heavy offense so far this season, which isn’t ideal for receiving overs, the Cardinals' pass defense has been too porous not to exploit. Their 31.5 team coverage grade is far and away the worst in the NFL through four weeks (next closest is 41.3). They simply won’t have answers if the Eagles want to force-feed their No. 1 receiver.
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