The new PFF Player Prop Tool, available exclusively in the PFF app for PFF+ subscribers, continues to give bettors a true edge, and Week 5 was its most profitable slate yet.
Across 209 non-anytime-touchdown bets with an edge of 10% or higher, the tool delivered a 57.9% hit rate (121-88) and netted 17.9 units of profit in Week 5.
Passing props were a highlight, with overs on passing yards cashing at a 93.8% rate (15-1) for 12.26 units won. Pass completions overs also delivered, finishing 18-7 (72%) for a return of 8.58 units. On the ground, rush attempt unders went 40-18 (68.97%), netting 15.63 units, while receiving yard overs hit at 68.2% (45-21) for a 14.36-unit gain.
With predictive analytics and matchup-based projections packed into a mobile-friendly interface, the Play Prop Tool is fast becoming an essential tool for serious bettors. It is available for download on the Apple App Store and Google Play Store.
Below, we break down some standout Week 6 props by position.
Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers, Pittsburgh Steelers: Under 29.5 Pass Attempts (+106 FanDuel)
PFF edge: +43.9% | Projected: 25.5 attempts | Cover probability: 69.8%
Rodgers has stayed under his pass-attempt line in three of his last four games and now faces a tough Cleveland pass rush that should limit volume. PFF projects just 25.5 attempts for the veteran quarterback, who has a 10-game average of 31.2 attempts. At plus money, this is one of the top quarterback unders on the board this week.
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles — Under 8.5 Rush Attempts (+124 FanDuel)
PFF edge: +37.3% | Projected: 7.5 rushes | Cover probability: 61.3%
Hurts cleared this line in each of the season’s first four games but rushed just twice in Week 5 as the Eagles dropped their first game of the season against the Broncos. He’s projected for 7.5 carries this week against a Giants defense that leads the league in man coverage rate — a matchup that favors Hurts’ arm more than his legs. The Eagles signal-caller ranks 10th among quarterbacks in PFF passing grade versus man coverage, and New York’s scheme is likely to invite him to stay in the pocket.
Joe Flacco, Cincinnati Bengals — Under 36.5 Pass Attempts (-105 BetMGM)
PFF edge: +39.9% | Projected: 31.5 attempts | Cover probability: 71.7%
Fresh off a trade to Cincinnati, Flacco will have just a few days of practice before suiting up behind the league’s worst offensive line. Flacco led all quarterbacks in pressured dropbacks (70) with the Browns from Weeks 1–4, and things won’t get easier against a Bengals team allowing the league’s second-highest pressure rate (42%). Now, Flacco draws a Green Bay front that ranks first in pass-rush grade and third in coverage against wide receivers. With limited time to absorb the playbook, expect a run-heavy approach and a focus on quick-game concepts — not 37-plus dropbacks.
Running back
Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals — Under 3.5 Receptions (+110 BetMGM)
PFF edge: +46.3% | Projected: 2.5 receptions | Cover probability: 69.7%
Brown has fallen short of this number in six of his last 10 outings and faces a tough matchup this week against a Green Bay linebacker corps that ranks sixth in coverage grade. He’s projected to run around 12.5 routes against those linebackers, with limited check-down chemistry expected from newly signed quarterback Joe Flacco.
Brashard Smith, Kansas City Chiefs — Under 10.5 Receiving Yards (+110 Fanatics)
PFF edge: +35.6% | Projected: 2.5 yards | Cover probability: 64.6%
Smith saw a bump in usage in Week 4 against Baltimore, logging 19 snaps (10 in the passing game), but that role quickly diminished — he played just six total snaps last week, with only four coming on pass plays. Despite going over this number in each of the last two games, PFF projects just 2.5 receiving yards for Smith this week against a Detroit defense that ranks second in team-defense grade and top-five in coverage, pass rush, tackling and run defense.
Wide receiver & tight ends
Julian Hill, Miami Dolphins — Under 8.5 Receiving Yards (-118 BetMGM)
PFF edge: +29.7% | Projected: 0.5 yards | Cover probability: 70.2%
The early returns on the Darren Waller era in Miami have been strong, and it’s coming at the expense of Hill’s opportunity. Waller ranks sixth among tight ends in receiving yards over the past two weeks and is second in combined first downs and touchdowns. He leads all tight ends with at least 25 snaps in yards per route run and ranks second in passer rating when targeted — all of which is shrinking Hill’s role.
Hill has gone under this number in seven of his last 10 games, and now faces a Chargers defense that ranks top-five in coverage grade against tight ends across corners (third), linebackers (fifth) and safeties (third). Los Angeles also ranks top-five in both receiving yards and receptions allowed to the position.
Kayshon Boutte, New England Patriots — Over 2.5 Receptions (+145 Fanatics)
PFF edge: +25.6% | Projected: 2.5 receptions | Cover probability: 51.3%
Boutte has cleared this number in six of his last 10 games, averaging 3.4 receptions on 4.8 targets over that span. He’ll face a Saints defense that ranks 20th in team defense grade (63.8) and may draw lighter coverage attention following Stefon Diggs’ primetime breakout against Buffalo last week. With a decent volume floor and plus money on the line, this is a viable dart in deeper markets.
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