- A classic AFC East rivalry kicks off the Week 3 NFL slate: The Dolphins travel to Buffalo to face a Bills team they haven’t beaten at Highmark Stadium since 2016.
- There’s no denying Josh Allen’s ability to punish defenses with his legs: Since the start of last season, his 93.9 PFF rushing grade leads all quarterbacks — continuing a trend, as Allen has earned a 90.0-plus rushing grade in each of the past four seasons.
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Miami Dolphins vs Buffalo Bills (-12) [Total: 49.5]
Game Overview
A classic AFC East rivalry kicks off the Week 3 NFL slate, as the Dolphins travel to Buffalo to face a Bills team they haven’t beaten at Highmark Stadium since 2016.
Buffalo's dominance in this matchup during the Josh Allen era is stark, as the team holds a 13-2 record against Miami since 2018. The Dolphins' last win over the Bills came in 2022, during Mike McDaniel’s first season at the helm.
However, the dynamics shift when examining trends in the betting market. While the Bills have dominated straight up, they hold a modest 8-7 record against the spread versus the Dolphins, including just 2-4 ATS when favored by six or more points.
In 2025, though, these teams appear to be heading in opposite directions. Buffalo is off to a perfect 2-0 start, notching a comeback win as home underdogs against the Ravens in Week 1 and following it up with a dominant road victory over the Jets.
Led by reigning MVP Josh Allen, the Bills boast the league’s most efficient offense through two weeks, ranking first in EPA per play — a serious concern for a Dolphins defense that currently ranks last in that same metric.
On the other side, Miami has failed to cover in either of its first two games, sitting at 0-2 against the spread. Despite early struggles on both sides of the ball, the Dolphins still feature a dangerous set of weapons, including De'Von Achane, who enters Week 3 as PFF’s ninth-highest-graded running back (72.5).
QB Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: Over 6.5 rushing attempts (+100)
There’s no denying Josh Allen’s ability to punish defenses with his legs. Since the start of last season, his 93.9 PFF rushing grade leads all quarterbacks — continuing a trend, as Allen has earned a 90.0-plus rushing grade in each of the past four seasons. He’s also cleared this rushing total in six of his last 10 games.
That spells trouble for Anthony Weaver’s defense, which has struggled early in the year. The Dolphins have already allowed two quarterbacks to eclipse this mark — Daniel Jones in Week 1 and Drake Maye just last week.
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