Thursday Night Football: Broncos-Chiefs betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)

2NA7B0B GLENDALE, AZ - FEBRUARY 12: Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) celebrates a touchdown with Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Kadarius Toney (19) during the Super Bowl between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles on January 29, 2023. (Photo by Andy Lewis/Icon Sportswire) (Icon Sportswire via AP Images)

• WR Kadarius Toney, Kansas City Chiefs — over 28.5 receiving yards: There are expected to be constant winds between 15-20 m.p.h. and gusts up to 30 m.p.h., which will mean a lot of running and a lot of line-of-scrimmage-type plays. That is Kadarius Toney’s wheelhouse.

• LB Josey Jewell, Denver Broncos — over 7.5 tackles and assists: Josey Jewell has not reached the heights of last season when he averaged 9.8 tackles per game, but this game will be played in a way that will benefit the tackle numbers for the guys inside.

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Estimated reading time: 3 minutes

GAME OVERVIEW

Strong winds have been forecast for this Broncos-Chiefs Thursday Night Football bout, and there is at least some speculation that the game could be severely impacted. The market has aligned, with the total moving from 51.5 at open to its current standing at 47.

Star tight end Travis Kelce went down with an ankle injury in Week 5, but he came back later in the game and even played the final snap on defense to help defend against a Vikings Hail Mary attempt, so we will likely be seeing him on the field tonight.

Elsewhere for the Chiefs, linebacker Nick Bolton is due to return after practicing in full on Wednesday and avoiding a designation on the final report. Punter Tommy Townsend is questionable with a knee injury, but they may not need him anyway.

Broncos edge rusher Frank Clark will miss this game against his former team because of an illness, and rotational interior defender D.J. Jones will also be missing out, having left his Week 5 game against the Jets.

The Broncos defense is bad, and it keeps getting worse. And given how this Chiefs offense is set up, they may have to spend big chunks of the night on the field.

While the market has already adjusted a lot of the lines, a few spots are still yet to be accounted for. However, the prospect of betting them is a little scary.

PFF's Best Bets Tool uses PFF data to uncover the biggest edges in the betting market. Click here to see the best bets for this game.

BEST BETS

WR Kadarius Toney, Kansas City Chiefs: Over 28.5 receiving yards (-113 FanDuel), 40+ receiving yards (+172 FanDuel)

Admittedly, this is a scary prospect, given Toney's inability to stay on the field. However, he has been a target magnet when he has played.

There are expected to be constant winds between 15-20 m.p.h. and gusts up to 30 m.p.h., which will mean a lot of running and line-of-scrimmage-type plays. That is Kadarius Toney’s wheelhouse.

The Chiefs have thrown 12 screens to wide receivers this season, the sixth most in the league, and Kadarius Toney has been the target on nine of them.

Name Team Pos. Routes run Adj. target % RZ Adj. target % 2MIN Adj. target % Targets aDOT DP% Slot tgt. % Deep tgt. % YPRR
Rashee Rice Chiefs WR 66 39.7% 46.7% 50.0% 23 6.6 5.6 67.6 4.3% 2.62
Kadarius Toney Chiefs WR 57 38.8% 40.0% 20.0% 19 2.3 12.5 49.1 0.0% 1.46
Justyn Ross Chiefs WR 30 21.4% 11.1% 0.0% 6 8.3 40.0 9.1 0.0% 1.13
Richie James Chiefs WR 21 17.7% 0.0% 33.3% 3 15.0 0.0 33.3 33.3% 0.29
Justin Watson Chiefs WR 109 17.2% 6.3% 30.0% 16 23.3 0.0 31.6 56.3% 2.02
Skyy Moore Chiefs WR 127 14.7% 26.7% 16.7% 16 9.5 0.0 42.4 12.5% 0.97
Marquez Valdes-Scantling Chiefs WR 149 8.9% 11.1% 7.1% 11 17.2 0.0 34.6 36.4% 0.78

Click here to see player usage and performance for all 32 teams ahead of Week 6.

LB Josey Jewell, Denver Broncos: Over 7.5 tackles and assists (-104 Caesars)

Josey Jewell has not reached the heights of last season when he averaged 9.8 tackles per game, but this game will be played in a way that will benefit the tackle numbers for the guys inside.

The Chiefs target slot receivers and tight ends at one of the highest rates in the league because their outside receivers have not been getting the job done. And with the wind expected, they will likely run the ball a lot more, too.

Week Opp Plays Total tackles Solo tackles Tackle assists
1 vs. Raiders 52 7 2 5
2 vs. Commanders 59 9 9 0
3 @ Dolphins 18 4 3 1
5 vs. Jets 53 5 3 2

Jewell went over his tackle number against the Commanders. He missed a lot of the Dolphins game, though he still produced four tackles despite playing just 26% of the team's snaps. He almost hit this number against the Jets and Raiders and likely would have had those teams been able to sustain drives and keep their offenses on the field.

The Chiefs currently rank eighth in offensive snaps per game, giving Jewell plenty of opportunity. And the adjustments made to account for the weather will only benefit box defenders.

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