• TE George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers: Kittle is always a threat to score from anywhere on the field, but he has been terrific inside scoring range. The star tight end leads the 49ers in separation rate in the red zone.
• WR Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers: While Christian McCaffrey is certainly a force in the red zone, 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan likes to give Samuel some rushing work in the red zone. The explosive and versatile wide receiver has nine red-zone carries on the season.
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• The Chiefs defense ranks 21st in catches (96) and 14th in yards (851) allowed to tight ends this season, but the underlying numbers suggest that the team is likely overachieving. The Kansas City defense has earned just a 54.7 team coverage grade against tight ends this season, 25th among the league's 32 teams.
• Kittle is also the 49ers' best separator against man coverage, which the Chiefs play at one of the highest rates in the league.
• Against a Chiefs defense that filters production away from the wide receivers, look for quarterback Brock Purdy to find Kittle in the end zone. At +170, Kittle is a value to score.
Longshot: WR Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers (Rushing TD, +800)
•While Christian McCaffrey is certainly a force in the red zone, 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan likes to give Deebo Samuel some rushing work in the red zone, too. The explosive and versatile wide receiver has nine red-zone carries on the season.
• Now, if we build in some vig and take the book's pricing as fair value, for this bet to be on the right side of expected value, we would need Samuel to score a rushing touchdown as often as he scores a receiving touchdown — about 30% of the time.
• But over the last few seasons, Samuel has only one more receiving score than rushing score. For his career, he has as many receiving touchdowns as rushing touchdowns. Considering Samuels' robust rushing red-zone role, this line is simply mispriced.