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Detroit Lions vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) [Total: 46.5]
Game Overview
After battling for the NFC's No. 1 seed in 2024, the Eagles and Lions are back atop the standings. This battle of division leaders features two of the conference’s top teams and also two highly profitable teams in betting markets, with each maintaining a 66.7% cover rate. However, the Lions sport a 3-2 record against the spread on the road to the Eagles’ 2-2 mark at home, so this could be anyone’s game.
The Eagles emerged from their Week 9 bye with newfound strength on defense following a series of trades and contributors returning to the lineup. Acquiring Jaelen Phillips and returning Nolan Smith to boost their pass-rush rotation propelled the defense to generate its highest single-game pressure rate (48.8%) of the season.
That will pose a problem for a Lions offensive line that has been dealing with injuries in recent weeks. Christian Mahogany is expected to be out until at least December, and both Taylor Decker and Penei Sewell are designated as questionable to play this week. That's unfortunate news for quarterback Jared Goff, who has been particularly sensitive to pressure, with his 39.7 PFF passing grade under pressure ranking 32nd out of 38 qualifying quarterbacks.
With Dan Campbell back calling plays, expect Detroit's running game to become even more of a focal point this week. Winning on the ground can turn the tide in Detroit’s favor on the road. The Eagles' run defense has struggled at times this season, as they rank in the bottom half of the NFL in rushing success rate allowed (32.4%, 19th) and percentage of runs earning positive EPA (43.4%, 25th).
WR A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles: Over 4.5 receptions (+105)
PFF's Ben Linsey highlighted this matchup during the PFF NFL Betting Show this week as a same-game parlay opportunity, keying in on A.J. Brown’s potential in the matchup — an angle with which I agree.
The Lions run man coverage at the second-highest rate in the NFL, which suits Brown’s strengths well as an elite receiver when faced with man coverage looks. His 92.4 PFF receiving grade against man coverage ranks as the second highest among receivers in the NFL this season. Jalen Hurts looks Brown's way frequently against man-heavy defenses, targeting him on 36.1% of his routes for 3.98 yards per route run. Those metrics not only lead the Eagles' offense, but they also rank in the upper echelon of the NFL.
That will pose a problem for a Lions secondary that has had key names in and out of the lineup for weeks. Terrion Arnold (concussion) and Kerby Joseph (knee) have been ruled out, leaving the team's coverage unit shorthanded yet again.
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