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Atlanta Falcons vs. San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) [Total: 47]
Game Overview
Since this market opened with the 49ers as three-point favorites, bettors have steadily pushed this line toward the Falcons. That trend is expected to continue as injury reports are finalized, as the 49ers will again be down multiple key starters.
While George Kittle‘s expected return should provide a boost, quarterback Brock Purdy (toe) and wide receiver Ricky Pearsall (knee) are officially out again, putting a damper on the potential of the 49ers' offense. Kittle is a fantastic player, but without more help in the receiving game to take attention away from him, he will face a tough challenge against a Falcons defense that has defended tight ends well. Through Week 6, they have limited tight ends to just 5.5 yards per coverage target and a 56.3% completion rate, both top-three marks in the NFL.
The Falcons have quietly crept into the upper ranks of defenses in several key metrics, behind improved play over the past few weeks. They now hold top-eight marks in EPA per play allowed (-0.086, sixth best), average yards per play allowed (4.7, tied for fourth best), third-down conversion rate allowed (32.1%, fourth) and rate of drives allowing a touchdown (18.4%, sixth best).
Offensively, Atlanta has been even more impressive in recent weeks, ranking sixth in PFF team offense grade (77.3) and fifth in both EPA per play and offensive success rate. Add in the fact that the 49ers will now navigate the rest of the season without the NFL’s highest-graded defender, Fred Warner (93.2), and the Falcons are poised for a big day.
This matchup isn't a strong spot for the 49ers to cover as favorites, as they hold just a 0-2 record against the spread at home this season. Atlanta, on the other hand, has looked strong playing as the underdog, notching a 2-1 against-the-spread record with two outright wins.
QB Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta Falcons: Over 215.5 passing yards (-120)
I’m targeting this game quite a bit this week. As mentioned during the PFF Betting Show, I’m looking at some same-game parlay angles that lean on big performances from Michael Penix Jr. and Bijan Robinson in the passing game.
The negative impact of Fred Warner’s absence from the 49ers' defense cannot be understated. With Warner on the field, the defense ranks around the league average in most efficiency metrics, including EPA per play allowed (0.001, 20th) and average yards per play allowed (5.3, 15th). But those numbers drop massively in the small sample where he has not been on the field, falling to last place in each.
That presents an opportunity for Penix to attack over the middle with Drake London and out of the backfield with Robinson. Robinson, in particular, can cause massive damage in this game, given the Falcons’ recent creativity in his alignments.
After Warner went down last week, the Buccaneers were able to generate 12.4 yards per coverage target, with Baker Mayfield posting a 150.1 passer rating.
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