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Most bettors place wagers in multiple markets — spreads, totals, teasers, props, etc. — where they generally get oriented by following a bottom-up approach: “Which spreads do I like?” “Which totals stand out this week?”
But the goal in this space is to articulate our process for bets by following a top-down approach. We will consider how a specific thesis on a team, player, or trend is best applied and capitalized on in the proper market. Some bets will track traditional markets, but more often we will look to maximize our upside in the multitude of different markets offered by sportsbooks — it all depends on finding the right market for the thesis! Let’s dive in.
With a below-average quarterback and slow offense, the Seattle Seahawks will be among the NFL's lowest-scoring teams
Best Bet: Seahawks to score the fewest points in the NFL
Wins are fluky and induce more variance — it would not be shocking at all to see the Seahawks win a few 13-10-type slugfests this year. But they're lacking in offensive talent and comfortably project to play at a slow and inefficient pace, making it likely that the Seahawks' offense will struggle to score points in 2022. If we simulate the season 100,000 times, we need Seattle to finish as the lowest scoring offense 10.1% of the time or more to make it a positive EV bet. With a 10 percent breakeven at 9/1 odds, we like our chances.