• Best Bet: 49ers to win the Super Bowl at any odds greater than +1600
• Check out PFF's exclusive database of performance metrics on every starting QB this season, including Trey Lance, in QB annual 2022
• The 2021 San Francisco 49ers were one of two teams to make a conference title game a season ago despite going under their season win total (10.5). That said, the 49ers continued a streak that began in 2011 of either losing 10 or more games or playing in the NFC title game, eventually losing to their division rival Rams. In with Trey Lance, out with Jimmy Garoppolo, and the boys from the Bay now have the ammunition to fully capitalize on the variance afforded a Kyle Shanahan team.
• Here we go over some of the available betting offerings on the 49ers on BetMGM and other sportsbooks, along with some exotic bets we like for this team.
|1||Mon, Sep 12||
|2||Mon, Sep 19||
|3||Mon, Sep 26||
vs. Green Bay
|4||Mon, Oct 3||
|5||Mon, Oct 10||
|7||Mon, Oct 24||
|8||Mon, Oct 31||
|9||Mon, Nov 7||
|10||Tue, Nov 15||
vs. Los Angeles
|11||Mon, Nov 21||
|12||Mon, Nov 28||
|13||Mon, Dec 5||
|14||Mon, Dec 12||
|15||Mon, Dec 19||
|16||Fri, Dec 23||
|17||Sun, Jan 2||
|18||Sun, Jan 9||
@ Los Angeles
Win Total: 10 (-110 over/-110 under)
The average number of wins for the 49ers in our simulation (which is subject to change for news and other reasons) is 9.9, with the 49ers going under 43.1% of the time (+100), winning exactly 10 games 14.2%, and going over 42.8% of the time (+100).
Best Bet: No value, but because of 49ers' propensity to have great years or bad years, consider alt win totals at BetMGM.
Make Playoffs: -225 yes, +175 no
Breakeven % yes: 63.6
Breakeven % no: 36.4%
We make the 49ers a 64.4% chance to make the playoffs, representing no value on either side given the bookmaker’s vig. This is likely not the market to bet on the 49ers’ variance, as the price is simply too steep on the “yes” and you can get better payoffs on low alternate win totals than you can on the “no”.
Best Bet: Avoid
NFC West Title: +175
Breakeven %: 36.4
We give the 49ers a 33.9% chance to win the NFC West, assuming moderate injury risk for Matthew Stafford out in LA. If you believe that is too low of a risk profile for Stafford, maybe a play on the “yes” here has value. In our eyes, though, the market is efficient.
Best Bet: Avoid
Super Bowl: +1600
Breakeven %: 5.9
We make the 49ers a 5.9% chance of winning the Super Bowl, which, if you can find a number better than the stated 16/1 above, you should bet it. This probability obviously increases if Lance shows himself to be a top-end starter early — a hypothesis worthy of betting given the payout.
Best Bet: 49ers to win Super Bowl at any odds higher than +1600
Trey Lance MVP +3000
Breakeven %: 3.2
This is a bad number relative to what you could have gotten earlier in the offseason — when he was going off in the neighborhood of 100/1. The fact that this number has been bet down the way it has shows how much the market is looking at the distributions for the 49ers, which are wider than just about any team in the league.
Kyle Shanahan Coach of the Year +2000
Breakeven %: 4.8
I wrote about this market here. Shanahan has not won the award yet despite taking two teams to the conference title game. But his profile is that of an award winner in this category, though, as he is often lauded for getting non-4-WAR quarterbacks further than anyone else, while generating outcomes better than expectations. The 49ers' win total of 10 is not low, but a 14-3 season would probably give Shanahan the award unless Lance turns into a legit superstar.
Best Bet: Avoid
Breakeven % is the percentage a simulated event must occur to make it a positive EV bet.