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PrizePicks Week 18 Preview

Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs (14) tries to run past Atlanta Falcons outside linebacker Brandon Copeland (51) after a catch in the third quarter at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

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With the AFC East crown on the line, the Buffalo Bills have an incentive to play full speed in Week 18. No player has more incentive to ball out than wide receiver Stefon Diggs, who has certain receiving thresholds in his contract to earn some extra green.

Diggs will hit his incentives if he can achieve 100 receptions and 1,375 receiving yards. He currently has 94 receptions and 1,144 receiving yards. The yardage bonus is out of the question, but Josh Allen jamming targets to Diggs to ensure he catches at least six passes makes the over the bet to make. 

We saw Allen hyper-target Diggs in Week 17 with four end-zone targets, 162 air yards and a 37% target share. Those high-value looks are a tell-tale sign that Diggs will erupt against the New York Jets, a team that ranks 31st in yards per target allowed this season at 8.2. The last time Diggs faced the Gang Green, he put up a season-high 162 receiving yards. 

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Dallas Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy said he doesn’t plan to rest starters in Saturday’s season finale at the Philadelphia Eagles. However, the Eagles’ non-committal stance about playing their starters — especially after 12 players were placed on the COVID-19 list early this week — make it more probable than not that we are denied an epic back-and-forth NFC East battle. That makes Ezekiel Elliott a prime candidate to see a reduced workload. 

Elliott has averaged just nine carries in his last two games, putting up totals of 37 rushing yards and 16 rushing yards. In his last five games, he’s cleared 44.5 rushing yards thrice — but by one yard on two separate occasions.

The Cowboys' starting running back faces an uphill battle to hit his projected total based on a strong chance for limited touches and a tough matchup versus an extremely stout Eagles' front. Philly has allowed the league's lowest yards per attempt, 3.3, since Week 12. 

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It’s been a Jekyll and Hyde two-week stretch for Carson Wentz from a passing perspective. Two weeks ago, he finally put on the passing performance Indianapolis Colts fans have desired. It was his fourth-highest PFF passing game of the season, with 64.7% of Wentz passing yards coming through the air. The key was his success targeting Michael Pittman Jr., with 13 targets going for eight receptions and five first downs. 

Week 17 was his fourth-lowest passing grade of the season and the seventh game where he failed to eclipse 200 passing yards. Indianapolis controls its playoff destiny and now has over a 95% playoff expectation, based on PFF’s latest simulation. 

Their Week 18 matchup against Jacksonville is the perfect spot for Indianapolis to have their passing offense hitting on all cylinders before entering the playoffs. The Jaguars rank 30th in opponent-adjusted coverage grade. If Wentz hits one or two deep shots early, he should coast over this passing yardage total, which is 23 yards below PFF’s current fantasy projections. In a gear-up spot for the playoffs, expect the Colts to showcase a revamped look to their offense, with Wentz the reason for an efficient day through the air. 


The correlated Indianapolis Colts passing game stack provides plenty of value on PrizePicks in Week 18. The Colts win and are in, but also they must take the first steps toward building up their passing attack for the playoffs.

No one is more important to that outcome than Michael Pittman, who has dominated the team target share since Week 12, with 30% of the overall targets. In all, 52.4% of his targets have come when he is open in coverage, as he has consistently won his routes against single coverage. Against a porous Jaguars defense, Pittman only needs one reception to break loose and go over this modest total. With this number lower because of the expectation of a run-heavy approach, buy into Pittman and the rest of the Colts passing attack at their low. 

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