PrizePicks describes itself as DFS made easy: Choose two or more players from the board and whether they go OVER or UNDER their projected fantasy score or single stat. The payout increases with each leg added, similar to a parlay bet.
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For the 2021 season, PFF has tasked two of its analysts to go toe-to-toe each week on PrizePicks by making their favorite player prop parlay bets. The loser goes home empty-handed and will donate to the winner’s charity of choice.
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Cordarrelle Patterson OVER 47.5 RUSHING YARDS
After just one bad game, Patterson’s rushing prop line has taken a massive nosedive. The Atlanta Falcons' receiver-running back hybrid stood zero chance of finding room to run last week, as 21 of his 18 rushing yards came after contact.
The veteran offensive weapon flew past 58 rushing yards in three straight games before facing the San Francisco 49ers, at an average of 15 carries per game no less. And considering the Detroit Lions have allowed at least one opposing running back to rush for at least 50 yards in seven of their last eight games, the sharp move is to bet the over on Patterson’s low rushing projection.
TOM BRADY UNDER 279.5 PASSING YARDS
Nobody wants to bet an under on the GOAT, but there’s a time and place for everything.
Brady has had a plethora of weapons at his disposal all season, contributing to him ranking second in fantasy points at the quarterback position behind only Josh Allen. However, Brady and the Buccaneers will be playing short-handed come Sunday, with no Chris Godwin or Leonard Fournette. Mike Evans‘ and Antonio Brown’s availability is also up in the air.
I’m old enough to remember Brady struggling immensely in his final season in New England due to playing with a hodgepodge group of playmakers. The results were not good. Combine his potential lack of weapons with a matchup against an underrated Carolina Panthers defense, and I am forced to go under on Brady’s 279.5 passing yards prop ahead of Week 16.
Carolina ranks second in fewest yards allowed per play (4.8) and passing yards allowed per game (196.4) this season. They have also allowed just one quarterback to throw for more than 270 passing yards all season.
MATT RYAN OVER 220.5 PASSING YARDS
The difference between Ryan's passing yardage prop and PFF’s Week 16 fantasy projections is drastic — his PrizePicks prop line is set at 220.5, yet PFF sees him throwing for 282 passing yards against the league's worst defense.
Detroit put on a quality defensive performance in Week 15, but they relied on turnovers and poor fourth-down decision-making to slow an underwhelming Arizona offense. Even if this is some late-season rebirth, Ryan could still go over this number in a relatively poor offensive performance.
Atlanta is slightly less than a touchdown favorite at home to Detroit, given the Lions' ability to cover, so this game should stay close throughout. Ryan has gone over this number in eight of 14 games, with the only downsides being complete no-shows by the Falcons offense or a game in which they lead from the start. Neither option is expected in Week 16, so Ryan to go over his passing yardage prop looks like one of the easiest props to win on Sunday.
JAKOBI MEYERS OVER 43.5 RECEIVING YARDS
The Patriots' wide receiving unit is incredibly thin heading into Week 16. Kendrick Bourne was one of three players placed on the COVID-19 list to start the week, and Nelson Agholor left the contest against the Colts early due to a head injury.
This should all but lock in season-high usage for Meyers, who already leads all Patriots wide receivers in every statistical pass-catching category. He never leaves the field, running a route on 93% of dropbacks, and he has seen a target on 24% of those routes.
Simply put, Meyers is seeing an incredibly high volume of targets and should easily clear 43.5 receiving yards in Week 16. Buffalo has been stout defensively, but with no Tre’Davious White, they should struggle to cover a receiver of Meyers' ability in the slot. Lock in this play on PrizePicks now, as the number is only going in one direction as we move closer to kickoff.