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PrizePicks Week 15 Preview

Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts (8) tries to jump over Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerback Ross Cockrell (43) during the first half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

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ANDREW ERICKSON

D’ONTA FOREMAN OVER 45.5 RUSHING YARDS

The once-feared Pittsburgh Steelers run defense has collapsed. Fresh off giving up more than 200 yards to Dalvin Cook on a busted shoulder, the “Steel Curtain” ranks fourth-worst in the league in rushing yards allowed to running backs.

They have fallen so far from an elite status that they are now more closely compared to the likes of the New York Jets and Detroit Lionsteams we are actively targeting for rushing yardage props.

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That’s why D’Onta Foreman gaining over 45.5 rushing yards is easy money. Foreman has led the Tennessee Titans with 32 carries in his last two games, averaging 4.9 yards per carry. Even though he played fewer snaps than Jeremy McNichols and Dontrelle Hilliard overall in Week 14, it’s because he sat out the entire fourth quarter. He was the clear-cut featured back in the first half, with 11 carries.

I’d anticipate he gets the nod in the backfield again for Week 15 and easily goes over his rushing yards projection. He may only need one or two drives to do so against this run defense.

JUSTIN FIELDS OVER 180.5 PASSING YARDS

What does Justin Fields need to do to earn some respect? The rookie quarterback continues to get egregiously low opening passing yards props even though he has thrown for more than 200 yards in his last two starts. Plus, he is averaging over 30 passing attempts per game.  

Consider the Chicago Bears' Monday night matchup versus a Minnesota Vikings defense that ranks last with 305 passing yards per game over the last four weeks, and the rookie looks primed to breeze past his expected passing yards total.

PFF’s fantasy projections agree, with Fields forecasted for 222.5 passing yards. 

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BEN BROWN

KYLE PITTS OVER 48.5 RECEIVING YARDS

Pitts is coming off his lowest snap count of the 2021 season, but he still saw 20% of the Atlanta Falcons' targets in Week 14. He has the fourth-highest average depth of target (aDOT) among tight ends who have run at least 100 routes this season and is seeing almost 30% of the Falcons team air yards. 

The San Francisco 49ers have a league-average ranking in PFF’s coverage grade but move up to second when the target position is tight end. It isn’t the easiest matchup for Pitts, but the Falcons simply don’t have any other playmakers capable of winning downfield. Pitts is sitting at his lowest receiving yardage prop number of the season and really only needs one long completion to sail over this number. Week 15 sets up as the perfect time to buy the dip on the rookie sensation. 

PATRICK MAHOMES OVER 270.5 PASSING YARDS

Everyone is focused on the quarterbacks in this AFC West showdown, as both look like perennial MVP candidates for years to come. Defense could take a back seat, even though both units rank in the top half of the NFL in PFF’s opponent-adjusted grades. The Los Angeles Chargers have been sound in pass-rush grade, but they rank as the 20th-best coverage unit in the NFL. It’s definitely not a unit to fear, especially when your option is as good as Mahomes.

The Chiefs' superstar is simply mispriced on PrizePicks right now, as his 270.5 passing yards would be the lowest closing prop number for him since Week 8 of the 2020 season. He hasn’t gone over his prop number in three straight games, but this still looks too drastic of a correction based on a couple of blowout performances.

Betting markets project this game to stay within a touchdown differential, meaning Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs should be passing the ball throughout this matchup. In a spot to establish AFC West dominance for the foreseeable future, expect the Chiefs' offense to play a flawless game on Thursday night. One of the easiest ways to profit from that outlook is for Mahomes to go over 270.5 passing yards.

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