PrizePicks describes itself as DFS made easy: Choose two or more players from the board and whether they go OVER or UNDER their projected fantasy score or single stat. The payout increases with each leg added, similar to a parlay bet.
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For the 2021 season, PFF has tasked two of its analysts to go toe-to-toe each week on PrizePicks by making their favorite player prop parlay bets. The loser goes home empty-handed and will donate to the winner’s charity of choice. Records will be updated each week, with both hopefully showing how to return a profit throughout the season.
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A.J. Brown OVER 66.5 receiving yards
There seems to be a massive cornerback shortage in the desert, as the Arizona Cardinals will trot out the likes of Byron Murphy, Marco Wilson, Luq Barcoo, Robert Alford and Tay Gowan to defend against the Titans' passing game.
The team's two projected starters (Murphy, Wilson) will have to face one of the NFL’s best duos at the wide receiver position in Brown and Julio Jones. The Cardinals led the NFL in Cover 1 usage last season and led all teams this preseason in Cover 0, as their scheme relies on the cornerbacks to win their one-on-one matchups. Unfortunately, Week 1 does not present anyone’s idea of a favorable spot.
Brown earned a 92.3 PFF receiving grade versus Cover 1 and Cover 0 last season, a mark that ranked fourth in the league among all pass-catchers. He also posted an insane target rate (31%) and an absurd 3.39 yards per route run.
SMASH the over on Brown’s receiving yard prop: The Cardinals DBs won’t be able to keep up. PFF’s fantasy projections agree, with AJB projected for 75 receiving yards on the week.
Zack Moss UNDER 31.5 rushing yards
The Buffalo Bills do not appear interested in featuring their running backs in the offensive game plan. In Josh Allen’s lone preseason game, the first-team offense threw the ball on a whopping 85% of plays.
Devin Singletary led the backfield with 15 snaps and totaled zero carries. Factor in the offense's committee approach between Singletary, Zack Moss and Matt Breida, and this backfield might not collectively hit 30 total rushing yards. They also face a Pittsburgh Steelers’ elite run defense that boasts PFF's No. 1 ranked defensive line.
Calvin Ridley OVER 77.5 receiving yards
PrizePicks is feeling generous in Week 1. Ridley sits 10 yards short of his receiving yardage prop number, with 77.5 offering over 5% value based on PFF’s prop tool. Everything points toward a shootout occurring in Atlanta, with PFF Greenline finding value on over 48.5.
Ridley flashed an ability to lead the wide receiver position in fantasy scoring by combining separation downfield with high potential volume. Kyle Pitts should compete for targets in this revamped Arthur Smith offense, but there are simply too many key factors pointing in Ridley’s direction to not see him eclipse this off-market number. Expect it to start in Week 1 and carry forward all year as Ridley turns into the No. 1 wide receiver in 2021.
Raheem Mostert OVER 0.5 rushing touchdowns
Mostert at even money to score a rushing touchdown appears to be a little short, based on PFF Projections. The consensus betting market also has him priced at -135 as an anytime scorer, with the receiving element added in.
Even if this is a well-priced line, there are still reasons to expect Mostert to exceed market expectations. Matchup and game script are the immediate and obvious reasons to gravitate toward Mostert in Week 1. Jimmy Garoppolo as the starting quarterback also provides reassurances of red-zone usage for the 49ers running backs. The market, in general, doesn’t seem to have baked everything into account for Mostert, which is why he is sitting as one of the best options as a play on PrizePicks.